polymerwufan 发表于 2007-6-30 13:45:52



一. 调查问题
The mayorprovides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overallgroup of people whose... [被调查者的代表性]
Lacking such evidence, it is entirely possible that people inclined to ... were more willing to respond to the surveythan other people were.
In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable[调查的统计是可靠的] the mayor cannot rely on itto draw any firm conclusions about....

The number of participants, 100, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to draw any reliable conclusions about...
Also, the sample might be unrepresentative of district studnets as a group.

The author provides no evidence that the study’s results arestatistically reliable.
In order to establish a strong correlation between dietary iron and heart diseases, the study’s sample must be sufficient in size[样本大小] and representative of the overall population of[样本代表性] heart-disease victims.
Lacking evidence of a sufficiently representative sample, theauthor cannot justifiably rely on the study to draw any conclusion whatsoever.

The author’s conclusions about...depend on theassumption that the poll results arestatistically reliable.
Yet, the author offers no evidence to substantiate thisassumption.
The author must show that ... polled constitute a sufficiently large sample of ...[样本大小], andthis sample is representative of all such ....[代表性]
Otherwise, the author cannotconfidently draw any general conclusions about...

The Council has not convinced me that ... in the survey arerepresentative of ...—in terms of ...
It is entirely possible that...
The 300 people in the study are not necessarilyrepresentative of the state’s general population—in terms of ...
For example, perhaps...Or perhaps...
In short, lacking evidence that... theCouncil cannot convince me that...

The memo provides no evidence that theresults of either of the two surveys are statistically reliable.
Besides, the memo provides no information about what percentageof ... responded to the surveys[参加调查的人数比例,也是样本大小]; the lower thepercentages, the less reliable the results of the surveys.

A final problem with the argument involvesthe two studies themselves. The letter provides no information about howeither study was conducted[调查是如何进行的].
Without konwing whether the sample of ... was representative of[代表性]the overall ... population ..., it is impossible toconfidently apply the studies’ results to that population.
Moreover, we are not informed about the size of thesample[样本大小]in either study; the smaller the sample, the less reliable the study’sconclusion.

A threshold problem with the argumentinvolves the statistical reliabilityof the survey.
The director provides no evidence thatthe number of respondents is statistically significant[ 样本大小]or that the respondentswere representative of ... in general[代表性].
Lacking information aboutthe randomness and size of the survey’s sample,the director cannot make a convincing argument based on that survey.

Even if the survey’s respondents are representative of theentire population of ..., the argument relies on the assumption that the responses themselves are reliable[被调查者的可信性].
Yet the director ignores the possiblilitythat...
Lacking evidence that the respondents’ reports were bothtruthful and meaningful, the director cannotconfidently draw any conclusions about ...from them.

One problem with the argument is that since the studyinvolved only 48 people it is impossible to confidently draw any conclusions aboutthe general population from it.

The survey must be shown to be reliablebefore I can accept any conclusions based upon it.
Specifically, the responses must beaccurate, and therespondents must be statistically significantin number and representative of the overall [样本大小和代表性]... interms of ...
Without evidence of the survey’sreliablity, it is impossible to draw any firm conclucions about ... based onthe survey.

The article’s author has not shown the study upon which theargument denpends to be statistically reliable.
The people studied must be representativeof the overall population of people who...; otherwise the author cannot drawany firm conclusions about ... based on the study’s results.

The survey that the argument cites ispotentially problematic in three respects.
First, we are not informed whether the survey’srespondents were representative of the overall population of . The smaller thesample, the greater the possiblity for biased results, and the less reliablethe survey.
Second, ... ; yet it is entirely possiblethat...
Third, we are not informed that ...;however, if... , then the survey results would be less reliable than if thesurvey embraced a wider range of ...
The smaller the range the less reliable anygeneral conclusions drawn from the survey.

The 15% decline that the author cites is not necessarilydue to the vocational preferences of new law-school graduates. It is entirelypossible that the number of new graduates preferring to work forlarge firms has not declined, but that during the last three years Megalopolis’large firms have had fewer job openings for these graduates. Since the articlefails to account for this alternative explanation for the 15%decline, the article’s author cannot make any sound recommendations to law firms based on thatdecline.

Assuming that the Megalopolissuccess was infact due to DR’s popularity there, the manager overlooks the possibility that AdLib’s campaign hadnothing to do with that popularity. Perhaps the band recently becameoverwhelmingly popular due to a new hit song or a revival of the type ofmusic DR plays. Eitherscenario, if ture, would serve to undermine the manager’s claim thatAd Lib’s efforts are to be credited for the Megalopolis success.

The chairperson unfairly assumes that the three bandawards wereattributable to Schade’s abilities and efforts. Lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, itis entirely possible that Schade was not the school’s bandinstructor when the band won these awards. Or, perhaps the band won all three awards early inSchade’s tenure, and his predecessor is to be credited. For that matter, perhaps it was theimproved quality of the band’s musical instruments that should becredited for the awards. After all, the chairperson provides no evidence thatSchade wasactually responsible for this improvement. Without considering and ruling out otherpossible reasons why the band won the awards the chairperson cannot convince meof Schade’s abilities or, in turn, that he should be appointed to the districtjob.

Even assuming that the study isstatistically reliable, a direct correlation between a high-iron diet andheart disease doesnot necessarily prove that the former causes the latter. While a highcorrelation is a strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is notsufficient. The author must also account for all other possible factorsleading to heart disease, such as genetic propensity, amount of exercise,and so forth. Lackingevidence that the heart-disease sufferers whom the study observed were similar in allsuch respects, the author cannot justifiably conclude that a high-iron diet is the primarycause, or even a contributing cause, of heart disease.

Similarly, a correlation between a diet thatincludes large amounts of red meat and heart disease does not necessarily infer a causalrelationship.It is possible that red-meat eaters are comparativelylikely to incur heart disease due to factors that have nothing to do with theamount of red meat in their diet. Perhaps red-meat eaters are the same people whogenerally overeat, and it is obesity rather the consumption of red meatspecifically causes heart attacks. The author must consider and eliminate this and otherpossible reasons why red-meat eaters are more likely than otherpeople to suffer from heart disease. Otherwise, I cannot accept the author’s implicit claim thateating red meats is any more likely to cause heart disease than eating otherfood.

The ad relies on the unsubstantiated assumption that theMega employees attending the seminar are positioned to influence Mega’s salesand its customer relations. Perhaps these new employees were hired forproduction, editorial, personnel positions that have nothing to do with customer relationsand that have only an indirect and negligible impact on sales. Without providingevidence that these new employees directly influence Mega’s customerrelations and sales, I cannot accept the argument that the Dickensseminar wasresponsible for any of Mega’s sales or customer-relationsimprovements subsequent to the seminar.

The fact that the magazine’spoorest-selling issues were the ones with international cover stories might be explainedby a variety of factors. Perhaps international events themselves were notas interesting during those periods. If so, it might be a mistake to refrain fromemphasizing international events when those events are interesting enough tostimulate sales. Or perhaps the news magazine is seasonal, or cyclical, andthose particular issues would have sold more poorly  regardless of the cover story. In short, withoutruling out other possible explanations for the relatively poor salesof those particular issues the publisher cannot justifiably conclude that internationalcover stories werethe cause of the relatively poor sales.

Even if the statistics citedaccurately reflect the amount of television people watch compared to the numberof fiction, itwould be hasty to infer based merely on this fact that thetelevision industry is more profitable than the book-publishing industry. To begin with,the study’s results excluded any data about nonfiction books—a category thatmight very well constitute book’s publishers’ main profit source. Moreover, theauthor has not showm any correlation, let alone a cause-and-effectrelationship, between the number of hours a person spends watchingtelevision andthat industry’s profits. In any event, lacking financial statistics aboutthe profitability of the two industries the editorial’s author cannot convince methat writers should follow the author’s recommendation.  

One problem with the argument is that theletter’s author mightbe assigning a false cause to these statewide trends. The author providesno evidence that Riedeburg’s policies and actions as governor were indeed thereason for these developments. Without such evidence, it is equally possible that otherfactors are instead responsible for the trends. For instance, perhaps the crimerate has declined due to legislative or judicial action over whichRiedeburg had no control. Perhaps the rise in the state’s population is the result of sociologicaltrends that have nothing to do with Riedeburg’s policies as governor. Or perhapspeople are moving to the state for other reasons, such as the state’s climate. Moreover,the argument assumes that an increase in population is a positive developmentin the first place; yet it is entirely possible that the state’s residentsproperly view this trend as a negative one. If so, and if Riedeburg’s policies havecontributed to this trend, then the author cannot reasonably conclude based on thisevidence that Riedeburg is the best-qualified candidate.

The author fails to establish the causalrelationship between A and B.
The author fails to convince us that Acontribute B.
The author provides no evidence that A isthe reason for B.

三. 差异概念
Strong sales of exercise apparel do not necessarilyindicate that Plainesville residents would be interested in NW’sproducts, orthat these residents are interested in exercising. Perhaps exerciseapparel happens to be fashionable at the moment, or inexpensive compared to othertypes of clothing. For that matter, the stronger-than-usual salesare due to increasing sales to tourists. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons forthe strong sales the vice president cannot convinced me on the basis of them thatPlainesville residents are exercising regularly, let alone that they would beinterested in buying the sorts of food and other products that NW sells.

The author faslely equates the proposedtangible incentives with job satisfaction, which is an intangiblereward based on the nature of one’s work. Moreover, enhanced job benefits canbe tantamount to an enhanced salary, and the shorter working hours amount to ahigher hourly wage. Thus if new law-school graduates seeking jobs in Megalopolisare less interested in monetary rewards than in job satisfaction, then theproposed incentives are not likely to entice these graduates.

The author assumes that an increase in milkprices resultsin increased profits. However, this is not necessarily the case. It is entirelypossible that the costs associated with producing and deliveringmilk have increased as well over the last ten years. Thus, the strength ofthe author’s claim of excessive milk-sale profits depends ona cost benefit analysis that the author does not provide.
Based on the fact that the numberof dairy farms has increased the author infers that the supply of milk has alsoincreased. However,this is not necessarily the case.It is possible that dairy farmproduction has shifted away from milk to other dairy products, and that thesupply of milk has actually declined over this time period. To the extent thatthis is the case, then the author’s supply-and-demand argument thatmilk prices are excessive is unconvincing.

Even assuming CCC’s planed miningactivities in West Fredonia will cause pollution and will endangered animalspecies, it isnevertheless impossible to assess the author’s broader contention thatCCC’s activities will result in “environmental disaster”, at least without anagreed-upon definition of that term. If by “environmental disaster” the author simplymeans some pollution and the extinction of several animal species, then the claimwould have merit; otherwise, it would not. Absenteither aclear definition of the term or clear evidence that CCC’s activitieswould carry grave environmental consequences by any reasonable definition, the author’scontention that CCC’s activities will result in environmentaldisaster issimply unjustified.

A threshold problem involves the definition of insomnia. The speaker fails to define this critical term. If insomnia isdefined as an inability to fall asleep, then how soundly or long a personsleeps, or how tired a person feels after sleep, is irrelevant to whether theperson suffers from insomnia. In short, without a clear definition of insomnia it is impossible toassess the strength of the argument.

The author’s argument depends on theassumption that the frequency with which a person refers inconversation to television, or to fiction books, is a good indication of how muchtelevision a persion watches, or how many fiction books a person reads. Yet this is notnecessarily the case. Perhaps people tend to refer many times indaily conversation to the same television show. If so, then the statistics cited wouldoverstate the amount of television people watch compared to thenumber of fiction books they read.

四. 过去推将来

Even assuming that Plainesville residentsare strongly interested in eating health foods and health-related products, therecommendation restson two additional assumptions: (1) that this interest will continue in theforeseeable future, and (2) that Plainesville residents will preferNW over other mechants that sell similar products. Untill the vice president substantiates bothassumptions I remain unconvinced that a NW store in Plainesvillewould be profitable.

The argument does not indicate how muchtime passed between the two studies. During a sufficiently long interim period thedemographic makeup of Leeville might have changed, or the reading habits of the firststudy study’s respondents might have changed. In other words, the longer the timebetween studies theless reliable the conclusion that respondents in the first studymisrepresented their reading habits.

The author’s projection also ignores thepossibility that the number of area residents will increase in the future, thereby resultingin an increase in electricity usage regardless of whether more efficient appliances are used in areahomes. Withouttaking into account these possibilities, the author cannot persuade me thattotal demand for electricity will not increase in the future.
A final problem involves the assertion that no new electric power plants are needed because the three existingplants, which are 20 years old, have always been adequate for the area’selectric needs. Theauthor fails to account for the possibility that the old plants are themselvesless energy efficient than a new plants using new technology would be, or thatthe old plants need to be replaced due to their age, or for some other reason. Besides, thisassertion ignores the possible influx of residents or businesses in the future,therebyincreasing the demand for electricity beyond what the three existingplants can meet.

The author’s inference that incentives which wereeffective in the past will also be effective in the future rests on poorassumption that during the last 18months allconditions upon which their effectiveness depend have remained unchanged.Perhapsthe general economy is expected to turn down. Or perhaps other cities haverecently begun to provide similar incentives. Indeed, the fact that Dillton isalready providing these incentives might actually portend failure forBeauville, which might need to devise even stronger incentives to convincebusinesses to move to Beauville rather than Dillton.

[ 本帖最后由 iq28 于 2007-10-5 13:44 编辑 ]

polymerwufan 发表于 2007-6-30 14:02:21

五. 错误类比
Even if Ad Lib’s serves are necessary tochieve the manage’s goal, it is entirely possible that Ad Lib’s service would not suffice to ensure similar sucesselsewhere—due to the sort of factors mentioned above that might have contributed to the Megalopolis success but would not come into play in other cities.

The mere fact that on nearbyBatia replenishing beach sand has served to protect shore-line buildings is scant evidencethat Tria would achieve its goals by following Batia’s example. Perhaps the same course of action would be ineffectiveon Tria due togeological differences between the two islands. Or perhaps Batia is in a far betterposition than Tria financially to replenish its sand on a continual basis. Inshort, lackingevidence that conditions on the two islands are relevantly similar,the author cannot convince me on the basis of Batia’s experience that the proposed courseof action would be effective in attaining Tria’s goals.

The editorial continues by claiming thatlistening to audiocassettes will make children better readers beacusewhen parents read aloud to their children these children become better readers.This argument byanalogy is wholly unpersuasive. The latter allows for interaction between parentand child, whilethe former does not. The latter allows for the child to view writtenwords as the parent reads—that is, to read—while the former does not. Besides, commonsense and experience tell us that audiocassettes, which provide forpassive listening, are likely to serve as crutches that dissuade children fromactive reading—instead of encouraging them to read.

A threshold problem with the argument isthat it assumesthat what improves memory and learning in rats will also improve memory andlearning inhumans. Although this is entirely possible, the argument provides noevidence to support this assumption. Withoutsuch evidence the argument can be rejected out of hand.

The argument assumesthat the difference in soyconsumption is the only possible explanation for this disparity in the occurrence of fatigue and depression. Yet theargument fails to substantiate this assumption. Common sence informs me that any one of a myriad of otherdifferences—environmental, dietary, and genetic—might explain why North Americans suffer from these problems to agreat extent than asians do. Without considering and ruling out alternativereasons for this disparity, the argument’s conclusion that soy is the key to the disparity isindefensible.

Even assuming that the survey data accurately reflect the auto industry, theargument unfairly assumes that supervision affects worker productivity similarlyat PPC. Perhaps PPC employs certain unique equipment orprocesses that require close worker supervision—even for older, moreexperienced workers. For that matter[同样] pehaps youth or inexperienced is anadvantage in working productivelyat PPC, whereas inthe auto industry either is a disadvantage. In short, without accounting for possibledifferences between PPC andauto manufacturers the director cannot convince me thathisrecommendation for PPC is sound.

The argument depends on the hasty assumption that the kinds of tasks robots perform in space are similar to the ones they wouldperform in factories, and that there are no differences between the two environments that would renderrobots less effective in factory jobs than in space missions. Perhapsthe effectiveness of robots in space missions is due largely to the weightlessenvironment of space. Or perhaps the average space-mission robotperforms less work than a typical factory robot would be required to work. In either case, thefact that robots are effective in space would amount to scant support for the author’sargument.

A Third assumption upon which the argument rests is that thepercentage of residents who attend public schools is about the samein both cities. The argument indicates only that the total population of the two cities isabout the same. If a comparatively small percentage of Blue Cityresidents attend public schools, then the comparatively small amount of money BlueCity devotes to those schools might be well justified despite an equal level ofconcern about the quality of public-school education among residents in the twocities.

六. 整体规律用于个体
The nationwide study showing clear trends among two-income families toward dining out and eating healthily does notnecessarily apply to Bay City. It is quite possible that Bay City’s two-incomefamilies do notfollow these gereral trends. For that matter, in Bay City the trend might be just the opposite.Thus, thenationwide trends that the argument cites amount to scant evidence thatBay City residents in particular would frequent a new seafood restaurant intheir city.

The author unfairly assumes that the nationwide tendencyapplies specifically to Monroetown residents. Lacking evidence that Monroetownvoters reflectthis general tendency, it is entirely possible that Monreotown residentsvote strictly according to their position on the issues.For thatmatter(同样), it is possible thatMonreotown voters tend strongly to vote against incunbent, in which case theauthor’s claim that Monreotown residents oppose Brown’s proposal would moreflagrantly fly in the face of the election results.

七. 单个事例说明整体
Even assuming that either DR’s popularityor AD Lid’s campaign, or both, were responsible for the Megalopolis success,the manager’s calimthat this success can be repeated elsewhere might nevertheless be unwarranted.Megalopolis mightnot be representative of most cities in which DR plans to appear—inany one of various ways that would adversely impact ticket sales in othercities. Forinstance, perhaps DR hails from Megalopolis and has far more fans inMegalopolis than any other city. Or, perhaps the kind of ad campaign that is Ad Lib’sspecialty, although effective in Megalopolis, would not be effective in mostcities.

Even if I were to concede thatpollution caused Yosemite’s amphibian decline, this single sample is insufficient to draw anygeneral conclusion about the reason for a worldwide amphibiandecline. It isentirely possible that the cause-and-effect relationship in Yosemiteare not typical of the world in general. Without additional samples from diverse geographiclocations, I cannot accept the author’s sweeping generalization about thedecline of amphibian and global pollution.

The memo unfairly assumes that sinceVenadial is popular in Alta it will also be popular in other countries. Consumer tastesin foods like margarine, as well as concerns about health matters such ascholesterol level, vary widely from country to country. It is quitepossible that consumers in Alta enjoy the taste of Venadial morethan other consumers would, or that consumers in Alta are more concerned than the average personabout cholesterol level and heart attack. Since the memo provides no evidence that tastesand health concerns of Alta consumers are representative of those of people generally,the sale’s director’s conclusion that Venadial will be popular elsewhere isunjustifiable, at least based on the memo.

The argument overlooks the strong possibility that the recycling habits of West Egg residents are not the only factor affecting howquickly the landfill will reach capacity. Other such factors might include population anddemographic shifts, the habits of people from outside West Egg whose trash alsofeeds the landfill, and the availability of alternative disposal methods suchas burning. Thus,regardless of the recycling efforts West Egg residents the landfill mightnevertheless reach full capacity by the date originally forecast.

The argument assumes that all other factorsaffecting highway accident rates have remained unchanged since thecounty lowered its speed limit. Yet the author fails to provide evidence tosupport this assumption. It is entirely possible that the lower speed limit does in fact serveto reduce the accident rate, while some other factor, such as unseasonably poorweather, reduced law enforcement measures, or even an influx of teenage driversto the area, hasserved to increase the accident rate. Without considering and ruling out these andother factors that might have served to increase the accident ratesince the speed limit was lowered, the author cannot justifiably conclude that thissafety effort has failed.

The manager also overlooks the possibility that one or morefactors other than Ad Lib’s efforts or DR’s popularity were insteadresponsible for the Megalopolis success. For instance, perhaps DR shared thebill at the concert with another band, whose appearance was the actual reasonfor the concert’s success. If so, this fact would seriously weaken the manager’s claimthat the Megalopolis success is attributable to Ad Lib’s efforts andto DR’s popularity in Megalopolis—whether or not that popularity resulted formAd Lib’s campaign.

Even if I concede that theintroduction of trout was not the cause of Yosemite’s amphibian decline, the author providesno evidence that the decline was caused by pollution—rather than some other phenomenon. Perhaps someother environmental factor was instead the cause. Without ruling outall other possible explanations the author cannot convince me that pollution isthe cause of the worldwide amphibian decline—or even the decline in Yosemitealone.

Even if Mega’s attendees are involved insales and customer relations, the ad unfarily assumes that the improvement in Mega’ssales must beattribute to the seminar. Perhaps the improvement in sales was the result ofincreasing product demand, new pricing policies, decreased competition, or any one of amyriad of other possible developments. For that matter, perhapsMega’s new employees as a group already possessed exceptional interpersonalskills, andtherefore Mega’s sales and customer relations would have improvedduring the ensuring months regardless of the seminar. Since the ad fails to consider and rule outthese and other alternative explanations for the improvements atMega, I find the ad’s claim that the Dickens seminar should receive creditunconvincing.

A third problem with the argument is that it assumes thatlearning and memory are the only significant factors affectingperformance in school. Common sense and experience tell us this is not the case, anda variety of other factors, such as motivation and natural ability, also play majorroles. Thus, the compounds might very well turn out to be largelyineffective.

The argument assumes that the difference in soyconsumption isthe only possible explanation for this disparity in the occurrenceof fatigue and depression. Yet the argument fails to substantiate this assumption.Common sense informs me that any one of a myriad of other differences—environmental,dietary, and genetic—might explain why North Americans suffer from these problems to agreater extent than Asian do. Without considering and ruling outalternative reasons for this disparity, the argument’s conclusion that soy is the key tothe disparity isindefensible.

The argument also overlooks many other possible explanationsfor the comparatively low incidenceof hip fractures among this group of women. For example, perhaps these women were more physically fit thanaverage to begin with. Or perhaps the nursing homes where the group resided provided specialsafeguards against accidental injuries that are not ordinarily for most elderlypeople. Or perhapsFrench people are less susceptible to bone loss than other people are—dueperhaps to cultural dietary habits or genetic predisposition. For thatmatter, perhaps women aregenetically less disposed to lose bone mass than men are. Any ofthese scenarios, if ture, would undermine the conclusion that the lower incidence of hip fractures wasattribute to the additional vitamin D and calcium.

A third problem with the argument is that it unfairly infersthat the proposed course ofcation is the only means of achieving the desired result. The letter’s author overlooks other possible means of ensuring that social-science students findimmediate employment—such as co-op programs, job seminars, and so forth. Without ruling out alternative means of achievingthe same goal, the author cannot convince me that the proposed course of action is needed.

The author’s conclusion that Riedeburg is “the best-qualified candidate” raisestwo problems in itself. First,regardless of Riedeburg’srecord as governor it is entirely possible that one or more other candidates are actuallybetter qualified. Second, the letter fails to adequately define what makes a candidate for state governorqualified. Withoutindicating what the ideal qualifications would be and rulingout the possibility that anothercandidate better meets these qualifications, the author cannot make a convincingcase that Riedeburg is thebest-qualified candidate.

The article failsto consider any other course of action that might help Beauville attain the same economic goals. Perhaps by improving its schools or hospitals, or by reducing itcrime rate, Beauville can just as quickly and effectively attract newbusinesses and achieve its economic objectives. In short, without weighing theproposal against alternatives, thearticle’s claim that theproposed incentives are the “best” means of achieving Beauville’s objectives iswholly unconvinving.

九. 盈利问题
Even if Bay City families flockto the new seafood restaurant, the restaruant would not necessarily be profitable as aresult. Profitability is a function of both revenue and expense.Thus, it isentirely possible that the restaurant’s costs of obtainting high-quality,healthful seafood, or of promoting the new restaurant, might render it unprofitable despite itspopularity. Withoutweighing revenue against expenses the argument’s conclusion ispremature at best.

Even if Venadial is shownconclusively to carry the touted health benefits and to be popular worldwide,Healthy-and-Good will not necessarily earn a substantial profit by acquiringinternational rights to sell Venadial. The memo provides no information about the costsinvolved in manufacturing and distributing Venadial—only that isderived from pine-tree resin and has been produced only in Alta. PerhapsVenadial can be derived only from certain pine trees located in Alta andsurrounding regions. If so, then the costs of procuring Venadial might prevent thecompany from earning a profit. In short, without more information about supply, demand, and production costs, it is impossible to determine whether the company can earna profit from acquiring international rights to sell Venadial.

十. 非充要条件
In concluding that DR must hireAd Lib in order to ensure similar success throughout the country, the manager assumes thatAd Lib’s services are both necessary andsufficient for this purpose. Yet the manager hasnot provided any evidence to substantiate either assumption. Lackingsuch evidence, itis just as likely that some other ad agency would be equally or moreeffective. Evenif Ad Lib’s services are necessary to achieve the manager’s goal, it is entirelypossible that Ad Lib’s services would not suffice to ensure similarsuccess elsewhere—due to the sort of factors mentioned above that might havecontributed to the Megalopolis success but would not come into play in othercities.

Although a merger might benecessary to eliminate current confusion about which authority to contact forservices, the editorial overlooks the possibility that the merger will not in itselfsuffice to eliminate this confusion. Specifically, until the residents ofboth communities are apprised of the change and learn how to respondappropriately, confusion will continue—and perhaps even increase in the shortterm. Thus,some measure of community awareness and responsiveness might also be required for theelimination of confusion.

polymerwufan 发表于 2007-6-30 14:05:42

十一. 非此即彼148.Theargument suffers from “either-or” reasoning. Based on the fact that Monroetown residents areopposed to Brown’s proposed tax cut, the authorunfairly concludes that they must be in favor of Green’s proposal. However, the author overlooks the possibility thatMonroetown residents are not in favor either proposal.

十二. 比例与总量混淆23.A 30% increase in seafood consumption at Bay City restaurants does notnecessarily indicate a sufficient demand for a new Bay City restaurant servingseafood dishes only. Although a 30%increase seems significant, the actual level of consumption might nevertheless be very low. This scenario is quite possible, especially considering thatthere are currently no seafood restaurants in Bay City. Lacking evidence that asignificant number of the city’s restaurant patrons are ordering seafood, the argument’s conclusion that a new seafoodrestaurant would be popular and profitable isunjustified. 203.The mere fact that the Saluda hospital receives fewer patient complaintsthan Megaville’s hospital provesnothing about either efficiencyor quality of care. Eventhough the number of complaints is smaller, thepercentage of patientscomplaining might be higher. Also, Megaville’s staff might openlyencourage patient feedback while Saluda’s does not. This scenarios with myobservation that for-profit orgnizations are generally more concerned withcustomer satisfaction than non-profit organizations are. 214.One such assumption is that the totalbudget for the two cities is about the same.It is entirely possible that Blue City’s total budget is no more than half thatof Parson City. If so, then the fact thatBlue City budgets only half as much as Parson City for its public schools would suggest at least the same degree of careabout public-school education among Blue City’s residents as among Parson’sresidents.十三. 对比实验问题167.Another fundamental problem is that the speakeromits to inform us about the test subjects’ sleep patterns just prior to the experiment. It is impossibleconclude with any confidence that the subjects benefited from sleeping onlavendar-scented pillows without comparing how they slept with the pillows tohow they sleep without them. (初始状态)Two final problems with the argument involve the experimental process. The experiment’s results are reliable only if all otherfactors that might affect sleep patterns remained constant during thethree-week period, and if the number of experimental subjects isstatistically significant. Without evidence of theexperiment’s methodological and statistical reliability, the speaker’s conclusion is unjustifiable. (其他因素) 168.The argument assumes unfairly that the additional vitaminD and calcium, rather than the weight training, were responsible for thelower-than-average incidence of hip fractures among this group of women. It is entirely possible that the weighttraining, not the supplements, was responsible for preserving bone mass. Also, weight training is known to improvemuscular strength, coordination, and flexibility, which in turn might reducethe likelihood of accidental falls and other injuries. Thus, the weight trainingcould also have been responsible in this respect.(其他因素) The argument also overlooks many other possibleexplanations for the comparatively low incidence of hip fractures among thisgroup of women. For example, perhapsthese women were more physically fit than average to begin with. Or perhaps the nursing homes where the groupresided provided special safeguards against accidental injuries that are notordinarily for most elderly people. Or perhaps French people are less susceptible to boneloss than other people are—due perhaps to cultural dietary habits or geneticpredisposition. For that matter,perhaps women are genetically less disposed to lose bone mass than men are. Anyof these scenarios, if ture, would undermine the conclusion that the lowerincidence of hip fractures was attribute to the additional vitamin D andcalcium.(初始状态) 188.Another problem with the argument is that it overlooks other factors that might havecontributed to the amount ofpain these patients experienced.Perhaps the women’s wisdomteeth were not as impacted as the men’s teeth generally, so that for the womenthe surgery was not as invasive and painful. Perhaps some of the women tookother medications as well to help relieve the pain. For that matter, some ofthe men might have taken certain foods or medications that counteracted theeffects of KO. In short, unless theexperiment was conducted in a controlled environment in which all factors werethe same for men as for women, it isimpossible to draw any firm conclusion about the comparative effectiveness of KO for the two sexes.(其他因素) 十四. 其他152(攻击后果)The author makes certain dubious assumptionaboutthe impact of beach-accessfees. On the one hand, the authorignores the possibility that charging fees might deter so many tourists thatTria would be worse off overall. On the other hand,perhaps the vast majority of Tria’s tourists and residents alike would happilypay for beach access, in which case Triabeaches would continue to be no lesscrowded than they are now. Under eitherscenario, adopting the author’s proposal might harm, rather than benefit,Tria’s tourist industry in the long run. 155(调查信息不完整)The editorial goes on to cite studies which “attest to the value” ofallowing students to hear books read aloud. However, as it standsthis evidence is far too vague to support the editorial’sconclusion; we are not informed whether the “value” relates specifically toreading skills. Common sense tells me thatwhile audiocassettes can help any person learn facts and understand concepts, askill such as reading can only be learned by practicing the skill itself. 173(缺乏比较的错误)The memo fails to indicate whether other magazines experienced an increaseof a decrease in sales by reducing their emphasis on international news. It ispossible, for instance, that the other magazines experienced declining saleseven for issues focusing only on demostic news. If so, then the publisher’srecommendation would make little sense.On the other hand, if other magazines experienced the same correlation betweencover story and sales volume, this fact would lendconsiderable support to the publisher’s conclusion thatinternational cover stories were responsible for poor sales. 192 (自相矛盾)Theeditorial seems to make two irreconcilable claims.One is that the merger will result inthe elimination of certain duplicative jobs; theother is that no current municipal employee will become umemployedas a result of the merger. The editorial fails to consider that eliminatingduplicative jobs would decrease the aggregate number of current municipalemployees unless enough new jobs are created to offset the decrease, and thatnew jobs would in turn add to administrative costs. Thus,as it stands the argument is self-contradictory, and the author must eithermodify it by choosing between two competing objectives—preservingcurrent employment levels and cutting costs—orsomehow reconcile these two objectives.

[ 本帖最后由 polymerwufan 于 2007-7-1 23:15 编辑 ]

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