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[资料分享] Argument 84 范文 [复制链接]

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发表于 2016-8-5 23:39:21 |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tesolchina_RA 于 2017-4-4 12:04 编辑

Argument 83/84
Arg 84decline in the numbers of amphibians

83) The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.

In 1975 a wildlife census found that there were seven species of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers of each species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. There has been a substantial decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide, and global pollution of water and air is clearly implicated. The decline of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, however, almost certainly has a different cause: in 1975, trout¡awhich are known to eat amphibian eggs¡awere introduced into the park.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

84) The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.

Two studies of amphibians in Xanadu National Park confirm a significant decline in the numbers of amphibians. In 1975 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. One proposed explanation is that the decline was caused by the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1975. (Trout are known to eat amphibian eggs.)
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.



C1: Two studies of amphibians in Xanadu National Park confirm a significant decline in the numbers of amphibians.

G1: In 1975 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species.

G2: However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced.

C2: One proposed explanation is that the decline was caused by the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1975.

G3: (Trout are known to eat amphibian eggs.)


A1(G1, G2, C1): The results of the two studies may not be reliable.

A2(G3,C2): The introduction of Trout may not be the cause of the decline of amphibian population.

A2 may be challenged by exploring a number of other possible scenarios.


In the letter, the author cited the two studies conducted in 1975 and 2002 suggesting that the numbers of amphibians had decreased significantly and proposed that such decrease was caused by the introduction of trout. There are a number of alternative explanations for the two different results and the decrease of amphibian population involving issues such as study settings, environmental changes and other possible scenarios.

To begin with, the contrasting results of the two studies may not necessarily be due to the decline of amphibian population in the park. Maybe the 1975 study was conducted in the spring when the amphibians were more active and, as a result, a large number of amphibians of seven species were observed. On the other hand, perhaps the 2002 study was conducted during the winter when many amphibians disappeared due to hibernation or were difficult to spot due to inactivity. The different study settings might explain the gap between the number of species and amphibians observed in the two studies.

Even if there were a significant decline of amphibians in the park from 1975 to 2002, such decline may not result from the introduction of trout. The deterioration of the local environment (e.g. the contamination of water and the worsening of air quality caused by factories nearby) might be responsible for the amphibian population decline. Also the global climate change might also alter the park ecosystem where the amphibians found it not as friendly as back in 1975. Such factors other than the introduction of trout could be the real causes of the reduction of the amphibian population.

More directly related to the proposed explanation about trout is the possibility of cannibalism among the amphibians. Researches have suggested that, under certain circumstances such as space limitation and food shortage, animals of different species including amphibians may be engaged in cannibalism, i.e. eating members of the same or similar species. Maybe due to the fierce competition for living space and food, some amphibians ate their weaker counterparts or their eggs, leading to the significant decline of amphibian population and the number of amphibian species.

In conclusion, the argument has to be evaluated by taking into account the alternative explanations discussed above. Specifically, we need to look into why the results of the two studies were different and, if there were a decline of amphibian population, the different possible causes of such a decline.





Argument范文与提纲目录(tesolchina)
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发表于 2017-11-30 07:10:13 |显示全部楼层
版主,请问C和G分别是什么意思啊???

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