[习作点评] 第六题的arctic deer请大家指正 [复制链接]

AlainYan
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发表于 2017-7-25 16:19:40 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

下面是我写的。

While the whole analysis of the argument may seem discreet and logical, one could take more details into considerations before drawing such an impetuous conclusion that the decline in the population of the arctic deer in Canada is due to the global warming. The argument is merely based on the reports by the hunters and the recent global warming trends, which fails to offer essential information to better estimate the conclusion. Thus, we need to figure out some significant evidence: the accuracy of the reports by the hunters, the situation of the sea ice in this arctic region, and other possible factors that could influence the population of deer. All of them could function in two ways: to either weaken the argument or to strengthen it.

First of all, we need the evidence of the accuracy of the reports by the hunters. The reports by the hunters that include no precise data are the only evidence leading to the decline in the population. It is a little rash to accept the fact that population of the deer has declined. Therefore, it is vital to obtain some specific information that could help to evaluate the accuracy: the number of the local hunters who make these reports, the time when they witness fewer deer, and so on. For example, if only several hunters report that they have seen fewer deer, then the reports are less reliable. If the hunters visited the area during the specific period of time when deer are less active, then the so-called decline in population could just be the natural inactivity of deer. In these cases, the argument that deer are declining could be weakened. To better evaluate the accuracy, a thorough wild research is recommended to closely and cautiously collect data of the population and to compare with former one.

Another evidence we need to acquire is the genuine situation of the sea ice in this specific arctic region of Canada. It is true that global warming is a prevalent tendency on earth. However, the coincidence of the global warming and the decline in population does not necessarily lead to the causality. Perhaps, the global warming hasn't influenced this area where the arctic deer exist. Under that circumstance, the sea ice still occurs regularly and the deer are still able to fulfill their migrate mission. Even if the sea ice melting, we still need another piece of information about the situation of the plants eaten by the deer in this area. Presented in the argument, the deer could feed on the plants which grow in areas warm enough. So, the global warming could also generate the boom of the plants for the deer. If so, then the deer do not have to travel at all because of abundant food in this region. If any of the two cases is proven by the evidence, the conclusion in this argument should be weakened.

An additional evidence we need is to dig into some other factors that could influence the population of the deer like the pollution, the predators, overhunting, etc. In the argument, the author seemingly to ascribe the disappearance of the deer merely to the global warming. Nevertheless, we have to reach a conclusion only after overall analysis. For example, pollution has also been a severe global problem. The deer could die off for the pollution transmitted by air or water. And species of animals are moving around the world due to the frequent human activities. Hence, it is highly possible that some predators of the deer were taken to the area which beget the decline in population of deer. As for the overhunting, since there are local hunters, we do not know if the hunting is limited by the government or the hunters illegally hunt for the deer. The argument could be greatly weakened if any of the evidence are valid.

When it comes to the scientific research, any small misinterpretation or neglect could render the final conclusion unsound. Therefore, before drawing the eventual conclusion, it is vital to delve into some evidence that could aid in more thoroughly understanding the argument. With more detailed evidences covered, a better comprehension of the conclusion could at last emerge.