[i习作temp] 0910[NORTH AMERICA FLYING] argument45 by monkeybiao [复制链接]

monkeybiao
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发表于 2009-8-6 11:10:21 |显示全部楼层

The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

Text body:
According to this editorial, arctic deer are declining nowadays compared to before. These deer feeds on plants, but the recent global warming is melting ice more rapidly, so the author thinks that the declining of the number of arctic deer has relationship to the climate change. This argument is fraught with dubious assumptions, which render it unconvincing.

First and foremost, the reports are not convincing enough which are collected from local hunters. So the reports made by the local hunters are not persuasive and convincing, there are many factors influencing the result. Perhaps the hunters cannot find any Arctic deer in the Iceland, or only a few they can find, so they mistakenly concluded that there were few deer in the Iceland than before. However, they cannot find arctic deer does not mean that there are fewer deer in the area, maybe deer immigrate far from the settlement of hunters, and they can hardly find them. So, the reports are disputable, and are not convincing enough.

Secondly, the reports about the decline of arctic deer which made by the local hunters, bring forward at the same time with the recent global warming trend. It was mere thought a coincidence between the two cases. Due to the changes, so people are more willing to think that declining of arctic deer has some relationship with the warm climate changing. The certain factor is not guarantee by anyone. Maybe some years ago, there is also the same phenomenon that the number of arctic deer is decreasing also, which was not caused by the warm climate changing. So we have no sufficient evidences to prove the declining of deer is absolutely related to the climate change.

Even assuming that the declining of deer is related to the recent warm climate change trend, we still cannot make such decision that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. There are tremendous uncertain factors about arctic deer. With the world environment changing, most species in the biosphere may change their living habits in some extent in order to adapt the complex circumstances around them. Maybe the deer change their original habits to get used to the current circumstances. Or maybe they are hunted by more advanced equipment that leads their number decrease sharply. Therefore, to make such brash conclusion is irresponsible.

Thus, the author of this argument failed to provide adequate evidences to support his claim that the declining of deer is related to the global warming trend. To strengthen the argument, the author should conduct a survey or other studies to demonstrate that the declining of deer is not only caused by the global warming trend, but also there are other factors should be considered in a comprehensive way. To better access the argument I would need some comparisons among the climate change situation in some former years, so we can kick those uncertain factors which may mislead us to make the proper conclusion.

[i习作temp] 0910[NORTH AMERICA FLYING] argument45 by monkeybiao [复制链接]

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