argument 46

maoerdwnUID：3551290

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46) The following appeared in a health magazine published in Corpora.
Medical experts say that only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards for adequate physical fitness, even though twenty years ago, one-half of all of Corpora's citizens met the standards as then defined. But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness. Since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

结论：But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness.

证据1：Medical experts say that only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards for adequate physical fitness, even though twenty years ago, one-half of all of Corpora's citizens met the standards as then defined.

证据2：Since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit.

证据3：Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does.

maoerdwnUID：3551290

1、假设居民健康水平的确下降，根据专家提供的信息。
2、假设对电脑的高拥有率代表了长期使用电脑，假设健康水平高代表了健康水平没有下降。
3、假设购买设备减少是健康水平下降的原因，假设经济低迷是购买设备减少的原因。

(TS1)To begin with, the assumption that the revised fitness standard can effectively reflect the changes in fitness levels of Corpora's citizens may not hold true. 根据不同的标准来判断居民健康水平的变化是不准确，不科学的。可能现在的评判标准是根据全国平均寿命、营养状况等制定的，与当地的情况有很大差异。而过去的标准是针对这一个地区的，结果比较有准确性。这样的话两种与标准相比的结果就没有可比性，得出的结果可能也是错误的。可能在当地的健康水平稳定甚至上升，是标准变高导致的这一结果。

(TS2)In addition, it is assumed that the high computer ownership can represent the excess time using computer, and the high level of fitness in that region can indicate that conditions of fitness of citizens there don't decline.实际上，很多人拥有电脑不代表很多人都使用过度时间。很可能那里的人很注重健康所以限制自己使用电脑的时间，这也可能是导致健康水平高的原因。 除此之外，健康水平高并不能说明健康水平没有下降，可能他们的健康水平与过去比确实下降了，但与其他地区的居民比还是比较高，这样的话就不能说明专家说的是错的。

(TS3)Finally, it's reasonable to assume that economy conditions are corelated to the fitness conditions. But there are many assumptions to be verified in the argument.First, the author assumes that the low expenditures on fitness-related products is responsible for the lower fitness levels than before. Second, there's an assumption that this purchasing condition can represent the economy condition. Besides, it is also assumed that when economy improves, people would choose to buy those products. 如果假设成立，那么经济好转，人们会买设备，健康水平上升。如果任何一个假设不成立，都不能通过这个方式建立起经济和健康水平的关系。可能的其他解释：经济好了人们有条件吃的营养，看医生、检查身体频繁等等。

maoerdwnUID：3551290

The artical argues that experts, who suggest there's a decline of Corpora's citizens' fitness, are mistaken when they blame it to the long time spent in front of computers based on the high fitness levels in place where the computer ownership is highest and the decline of the expenditures on fitness-related products. A number of assumptions have been made about the real changes of fitness levels of citizens in Corpora, the computer-related issues, and the relation among purchasing fitness-related products, fitness levels, and the economy conditions. We need to examine the assumptions carefully in order to assess the argument.

tesolchinaUID：2191404

O(∩_∩)O谢谢

zsczslUID：2888426

新人求教。

1 抄题

The following appeared in a health magazine published in Corpora.

"Medical experts say that only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards for adequate physical fitness, even though twenty years ago, one-half of all of Corpora's citizens met the standards as then defined. But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness. Since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

2 列出argument的结论和主要证据
claim或结论：But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness.  The recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does.

证据01 overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest

证据02 as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services.

3 写第一段
TS (pt1, pt2, pt3, pt4): The author denies the medical experts’ opinion that the citizens in Corpora are less physically fit due to heavy exposure to the computer, maintains that the real cause is the recent economic recession and predicts that the progress in local economic situation will improve the residents’ physical fitness, via citing the relationship between fitness situations and the computer ownership level plus current less spending on products and service about fitness. To judge the validity of the conclusion drawn by the author that the health experts incorrectly link the declined physical fitness level to the computer use time, the reader should evaluate all the main presumptions in the essay.

4. 写出中间段的主题句（英语）用汉语解释主要讨论的点
中间第一段
ts (pt1): In the first place, the author assumes that the owner of the computer must use it frequently. 这个假设在很多情况下是成立的，比如说游戏玩家会购买精心配置的电脑进行游戏操作，工程师会挑选专业电脑以供自己随时随地记录设立灵感。然而电脑所有权与电脑使用权分离的情况也不少见。比如一家大型公司里，所有电疗皆归股东所有，但是每天使用这些电脑的却是公司里的员工。因此，要弄清作者的假设是否成立，读者需要知道电脑的所有者使用它们到底多频繁。

中间第二段
ts (pt2): The next postulation is that, and the dwellers in chosen groups can represent the overall population of Corpora. 虽然作者阐明了拥有电脑者最多的区域正好是总体身材最好者所在的区域，但就算所有权等同经常使用，如果这些区域里的居民人数过少的话，则不足以代表该市的整体情况。作者至少还应该提及这些区域里的居民人数占该市人口的比例，如果比例够大，假设则可能成立。如果作者还能证明拥有电脑者最少的区域也正是总体身材最差者所在的区域，那么假设更有可能成立。

中间第三段
ts (pt3): Thirdly, the writer presupposes that current low spending on the products and services about fitness is caused by the recent economic recession. 如果作者能够进行相应的问卷调查的话，也许她的假设就能被证明是对是错了。如果一个科学合理的研究结果显示由于经济情况恶化，人们只好缩减健身开支，那么作者的假设自然成立。然而调查结果要是显示当地居民由于怀疑健身产品和服务的效果而不去消费它们，或者许多从前这些产品和服务的消费者移民他乡，那么作者的假设就不能成立了。

中间第四段
ts (pt4): The final assumption is about the relationship between the fitness levels and the economic performance in Corpora, which indicates that the economic situation is not related to the time and energy spent on computers and impact citizens’ fitness by some other means. 如果有证据表明当前的经济衰退迫使人们只好购买更加便宜的易发胖食物，或者更少去收费不低的健身房，那么当经济好转之时，人们生活恢复正常，身材随之恢复，作者的假设自然也就成立。可是就算当前经济衰退的确影响了人们的身材，但是是通过如下途径影响的，那么作者的假设还是不能成立：经济衰退是许多人失业，失业的人有一些积蓄，一时无所事事之下，便靠积蓄维持生计，同时天天坐在电脑前找新工作或是打网络游戏以逃避现实，因此直接败坏人们身材的还是电脑。为了说服读者，本文作者需要提供更具体的证据，来说明经济衰退到底是如何影响人们身材的。

zsczslUID：2888426

王老师，学生按照您的指点修改了自己提纲，请老师点评。如果能写全文了，请告知，谢谢！

1 抄题 46．The following appeared in a health magazine published in Corpora.

"Medical experts say that only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards for adequate physical fitness, even though twenty years ago, one-half of all of Corpora's citizens met the standards as then defined. But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness. Since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.


2 列出argument的结论和主要证据
claim或结论：But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness.  The recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does.

证据01 overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest

证据02 as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services.


3 写第一段
TS (pt1, pt2, pt3, pt4): The author denies the medical experts’ opinion that the citizens in Corpora are less physically fit due to heavy exposure to the computer, maintains that the real cause is the recent economic recession and predicts that the progress in local economic situation will improve the residents’ physical fitness, via citing the relationship between fitness situations and the computer ownership level plus current less spending on products and service about fitness. To judge the validity of the conclusion drawn by the author that the health experts incorrectly link the declined physical fitness level to the computer use time, the reader should evaluate all the main hypotheses in the essay.

王老师的点评：注意是assumption不是presumption

我的提问：老师，根据merriam-webster词典，assumption的同义词有：given, hypothetical, if, postulate, premise (also premiss), presumption, presupposition, supposition。Assumption与presumption为何不能互换，请指教。

4. 写出中间段的主题句（英语）用汉语解释主要讨论的点
中间第一段回应Medical experts say that only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards for adequate physical fitness, even though twenty years ago, one-half of all of Corpora's citizens met the standards as then defined. But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness
ts (pt1): In the first place, the writer postulates that those medical experts have not considered the demographic change and the factor of age when designing fitness standards. 如果有证据表明专家们在设定横跨二十年标准的时候，并没考虑到人口结构变化和年龄因素，这二十年内恰好新生儿少，而原本就存在的人多，即人口呈老龄化趋势，那么20年前符合标准的人20年后就因衰老而自然不合标准了。结果专家们却说这是使用电脑过多造成的，那当然是弄错了，作者的判断正确。可要是专家们考虑到了人口结构变化和年龄因素，甚至为每一个年龄段的人设定了标准，那么他们的结论则可能是正确的，作者的判断有待进一步检验。

王老师的点评：另外还有一点要注意的是人口结构的变化  20年前可能人们都比较年轻 自然会fit一些 这又和fitness的标准有关 这个标准有没有考虑年龄因素

中间第二段回应overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest
ts (pt2): Next, the author assumes that the owner of the computer must use it frequently, and those users do not do much strenuous exercise before or after the long-time sitting in front of the computer. 如果说有证据显示，当地游戏玩家购买精心配置的电脑进行游戏操作，或是工程师挑选专业电脑以供自己随时随地记录设立灵感，而且他们大多数都是长期坐着用电脑的，在他们的生活中没有进行其他活动来保持身材，那么作者的假设成立。然而，如过有证据表明当地有大量电脑所有权与电脑使用权分离的情况，比如当地的大型公司里，所有电脑皆归股东所有，但是每天使用这些电脑的却是公司里的员工，那么就该调查一下这些员工的身材和他们使用电脑时间的关系了。另外，如果一个人每天使用电脑6小时，而剧烈运动6小时的话，那么他的身材也差不了。因此，要弄清作者的假设是否成立，读者需要知道电脑的所有者使用它们到底多频繁，是否在使用电脑前后进行过长时间剧烈运动以保持身材。

王老师的点评：这个点的讨论要结合fitness来讲 你的汉语展开好像有点偏了


中间第三段 回应overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest
ts (pt3): The third postulation is that, and the dwellers in chosen regions can represent the overall population of Corpora. 虽然作者阐明了拥有电脑者最多的区域正好是总体身材最好者所在的区域，但就算所有权等同经常使用，如果这些区域里的居民人数过少的话，则不足以代表该市的整体情况。作者至少还应该提及这些区域里的居民人数占该市人口的比例，如果比例够大，假设则可能成立。如果作者还能证明所有区域中，电脑拥有者人数和好身材拥有者人数之间成正比的线性关系，那么假设更有可能成立。

王老师的点评：你写提纲的时候 最好能粘贴出你所回应的那部分原文 在实际写作时要做同意转换

中间第四段 回应as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services
ts (pt4): Thirdly, the writer presupposes that current low spending on the products and services about fitness is caused by the recent economic recession, and all the means of keeping fitness cost the residents money. 如果作者能够进行相应的问卷调查的话，也许她的假设就能被证明是对是错了。如果一个科学合理的研究结果显示由于经济情况恶化，人们只好缩减健身开支，那么作者的假设自然成立。然而调查结果要是显示当地居民由于怀疑健身产品和服务的效果而不去消费它们，或者许多从前这些产品和服务的消费者移民他乡，那么作者的假设就不能成立了。另外，作者应该调查一下当地人最近几年的健身方式，如果发现他们都是趋向于花钱健身，那么作者假设可能成立。要是作者发现他们过去喜欢花钱买健身器材健身，而现在转为了跑步、做仰卧起坐、俯卧撑等免费健身方式，那么她的假设也是不能成立的。当假设不成立时，当前的经济情况就不一定是人们的健身花费减少的原因了，也就更不可能是造成人们总体身材下降的主要因素。

王老师的点评：这里要注意的点是用这些产品服务不是锻炼的唯一手段 还可以去公园跑步 是不要钱的
另外 你不能仅仅是质疑假设 而是要指出假设如果不成立的时候对结论的影响是什么  

中间第五段 回应fitness levels will improve when the economy does
ts (pt5): The final assumption is about the relationship between the fitness levels and the economic performance in Corpora, which indicates that the economic situation is not related to the time and energy spent on computers and impact citizens’ fitness by some other means. 如果有证据表明当前的经济衰退迫使人们只好购买更加便宜的易发胖食物，或者更少去收费不低的健身房，那么当经济好转之时，人们生活恢复正常，身材随之恢复，作者的假设自然也就成立。可是就算当前经济衰退的确影响了人们的身材，但是是通过如下途径影响的，那么作者的假设还是不能成立：经济衰退是许多人失业，失业的人有一些积蓄，一时无所事事之下，便靠积蓄维持生计，同时天天坐在电脑前找新工作或是打网络游戏以逃避现实，因此直接败坏人们身材的还是使用电脑。为了说服读者，本文作者需要提供更具体的证据，来说明经济衰退到底是如何影响人们身材的。

tesolchinaUID：2191404

zsczsl 发表于 2014-12-15 23:57
王老师，学生写的提纲是否合格？能写全文了吗？请您说句话吧，谢谢！

我昨天在邮件里提过一些意见的 你有木有看到

chrishong119UID：3412641

个人看法
1、经济好了，也许会很忙，没时间去健身，甚至到时候已经没有了习惯爱好了；再者，买的产品少了，可能是因为以前人们已经买够了，不需要更多的产品了，并且，花在service及products上的钱少了，并不代表人们健身水平下降，可能是在家里健身比如push-up,去公园跑步
2、可能PC多的地方人口较多、密度也大，但总的百分比来说的话其健身率未必很高，而且花的时间不一定最多，甚至，健身的质量不一定讲究（有些偏了啊这最后一句）
3、current and then standards 的标准一不一样，而且，这两次调查的范围、样本、方法都是一样吗？