ARGU60，GRE第一篇，希望好心人可以指点一二

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The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

According to this argument,the client should make investment in Consolidate Industries given the projected low temperature over several more years,expected increases of numbers of homes which use oil as their major fuel for heating. To assess this argument, we need to examine critically a number of assumptions about the prediction of weather,the relationship between the growing homes being built with increased demand for oil heating and the ways of consuming fuels in current or future days.

It is first assumed that the below-normal weather pattern will continue according to the climate forecasters’ prediction.However,what if her/his prediction is wrong?As we know,humanity could not still precisely guarantee the weather like the day after tomorrow,not even the decades of years.It is clearly that, as the global weather becomes warmer,the district’s temperature trend will change as well.So,if the prediction is wrong,following the inevitable declining demand for heating,then the investment would be an unwise idea.

In addition,even if the weather prediction is out of question,the argument depends on the additional assumption that the local residents will never change their major fuel for heating is still problematic.As the letter says,that most homes have traditionally made use of oil as their heating fuel does not stand for their future choice of heating.It is understandable that as the modern technology develops,more and more green and economical energies are being invented,and some of advanced resources could become the alternate heating sources for the residents.At that time,oil maybe obsolete.So,a close scrutiny of the assumption above,reveals that there are lots of fuel choices for the local people,which would weaken the suggestion.

Lastly,an implicit assumption being made in the argument that many new homes are being built due to recent population growth,and these new houses may lead to high demand of oil for heating.It is true that more houses may need more heating resources.Nevertheless,no one can ensure that the oil is the unique source for heating.Furthermore,these houses are new,which should be equipped with most advanced equipment.We have reasons to believe that oil may be replaced by a more environmental-fridendly energy.Moreover,maybe the new houses are not put into use,which can not guarantee the increases of the demand for heating,and the investment could not receive an efficient outcome.

In conclusion,while it is plausible that the client should make investiment in Consolidated Industries based on the evidences mentioned in the letter above,we need to scrutinize the assumptions with more empirical data to evaluate the validity of the argument.