Argument 11 范例

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Arg 11 restrict development of farmland

The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.


G1: The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county.

C1: But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county.

G2: Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since.

G3: However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled.

C2: The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.


Maple county council predicts that, after introducing the proposed policy on land use, the housing price will increase significantly. Considering the cases that may support or challenge the prediction, it is important to answer a number of questions about the land supply for housing, overall trend of economic development and the population growth of Maple county to decide if the prediction is reasonable.


In order to assess the impact of limiting the development of farmland to housing prices, it is critical to look into how important the farmland is as a source of land for housing. If the real estate developers in Maple had been relying on farmland in the past to build houses, as the case of Pine County may be, the prices of houses may increase significantly as the developers may face a shortage of land for building new houses. On the other hand, if the developers could obtain land from other sources, e.g. reclaim the land from the sea or build houses in forest parks, which might be the case of Chestnut, the policy would only have a modest impact of the housing prices as the supply of land and houses will not be affected.


Of course, the supply of land is not the only factor that will influence the housing prices. We also need to ask what the economy of Maple will be like in the next 10 or 15 years. If the Maple economy is expected to grow significantly in the next decade with a number of investment projects on the horizon, the housing price may increase as a result. This is because when the economy is strong people will enjoy higher income and can afford more expensive houses. This could be the main reason why after a similar policy was introduced in Pine, the housing prices had doubled. We need to examine more closely the cases of the housing price increase in Pine and see whether Maple is similar to Pine in terms of the trend of economic development. Alternatively, if the economic outlook of Maple is more similar to Chestnut, where the housing prices had changed very little, the prediction may not be accurate.


Another important factor we need to consider when predicting housing prices is population. Maybe the population size of Pine had grown exponentially in the past 15 years due to the booming economy creating more job opportunities and attracting more people moving over here. Or perhaps, the average age of Pine county residents is relatively low leading to the natural growth of population size in the next 15 years. If the demographic structure of Maple resembles that of Pine or Maple expects a large number of people moving in, the housing prices may increase in the next few years, not necessarily a result of the proposed policy. On the other hand, if Maple has the similar demographic structure as Chestnut and does not attract people from other areas, it is less likely that the housing prices will increase.



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