Argument 33 提纲

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Arg 33 construction of new generating plants -o

The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.

Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase - and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.


G1: Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy.

G2: At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago.

G3: Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating.

C1: Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase - and may decline slightly.

C2: Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.


A1(G1, C1): Surveys are reliable and the respondents would do as they said.

A2(G2, C1): The home appliances marketed are more efficient than the ones currently used and the residents would buy them.

A3(G3, C1): The new technologies would actually be used for home heating and electricity used for home heating constituted a large portion of the total amount of electricity.

A4(C1, C2): New generating plants were planned to meet the electricity needs (not other goals such as better efficiencies or replace old hardware)


assumption 1: the survey results could accurately predict the decisions made by the homeowners
- people may say one thing in the survey but behave differently when making decisions
- they may pay lip service to environmental protection
- other factor such as disposable income and prices of the appliances would be relevant

assumption 2: the new home appliances are attractive enough for the homeowners
- twice efficient than a decade ago- but what about the appliances bought last year
- the new home appliances are affordable
- willingness to buy new appliances

assumption 3: the new technologies for heating would be widely adopted and good enough to save energy
- maybe these technologies are too expensive
- maybe the homeowners do not want to try the new technologies (do not know enough)
- maybe the weather would be very cold and electric heaters are still needed

assumption 4: only home residents need electricity
- what about the office buildings and the shopping malls
- what about the manufacturing factories
- what about the subway system



Argument范文与提纲目录(tesolchina)
https://bbs.gter.net/thread-2030117-1-1.html