Argument 38 提纲

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Argument 38/95/96
Arg 38 resume production of alpaca overcoat-o

38) The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

95) The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. This demand and the overall increase in clothing prices will make Sartorian's alpaca overcoats more profitable than ever before.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

96) The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.




G1: Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat.

G2: Now that we have a new fabric supplier,

C1: we should resume production.

C2: This coat should sell very well/there will be pent-up customer demand.

G3since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat,

G4: Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years,

C3: customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and C4: our company profits will increase.


A1 (G1, G2, C1): The new supplier will be reliable for high-quality wool fabric at reasonable costs.

A2 (G3, C2): The factors that prevented the competitors from making alpaca overcoat would not affect the demand and the sale of the products.

A3 (G4, C3): The alpaca overcoat is similar to the other types of clothing and the factors that caused the increase of prices of other types of clothing would have similar effects on the price of the alpaca overcoat.

A4 (C4): It would be profitable to manufacture and sell alpaca overcoat. (consider costs of the raw materials, costs of giving up manufacturing other products with higher profit margin)


the demand for alpaca coat
- the reason why competitors do not produce alpaca overcoat (maybe the customers are less interested)
- the availability of close substitute (the prices, the fashion)
- the animal protection groups

the willingness to pay higher prices
- the sales of other types of clothes after the price spike (maybe the customers bought less clothes)
- how elastic the demand for alpaca coats is relative to other clothes

the stability of the supply and the costs
- the cost of the raw materials
- the cost of labor and machinery
- how stable the supply would be





Argument范文与提纲目录(tesolchina)
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