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[资料分享] Argument 169 范文 [复制链接]

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发表于 2016-8-5 23:33:06 |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tesolchina_RA 于 2017-4-4 12:29 编辑

Argument 77/169
Arg 169build golf course and resort hotel

77) The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy¡aand generate additional tax revenues¡ais to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

169) The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of Brindleburg to the city council.

Two years ago, the town of Seaside Vista opened a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. Since then, the Seaside Vista Tourism Board has reported a 20% increase in visitors. In addition, local banks reported a steep rise in the number of new business loan applications they received this year. The amount of tax money collected by Seaside Vista has also increased, allowing the town to announce plans to improve Seaside Vista's roads and bridges. We recommend building a similar golf course and resort hotel in Brindleburg. We predict that this project will generate additional tax revenue that the city can use to fund much-needed public improvements.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.




G1: Two years ago, the town of Seaside Vista opened a new municipal golf course and resort hotel.

G2: Since then, the Seaside Vista Tourism Board has reported a 20% increase in visitors.

G3: In addition, local banks reported a steep rise in the number of new business loan applications they received this year.

G4: The amount of tax money collected by Seaside Vista has also increased, allowing the town to announce plans to improve Seaside Vista's roads and bridges.

C1: We recommend building a similar golf course and resort hotel in Brindleburg. We predict that this project will generate additional tax revenue that the city can use to fund much-needed public improvements.


A1 (G1, G2): G1 is the direct and only cause of G2.

A2 (G1, G3): G1 is the direct and only cause of G3 and G2 indicates strong economic performance.

A3 (G1, G4):G1 is the direct and only cause of G4.

A4 (C1): The success case could be replicated.


The mayor recommends the construction of a golf course and a resort hotel in town to generate more tax revenue for financing infrastructure improvements. By citing the example of the town Seaside Vista who made similar moves, he argues that the projects will attract more visitors, stimulate local business activities and help the local government collect more money. We need to answer a number of questions about the resources for tourism, the economic structure and the taxation policies of Brindleburg to evaluate the argument.

To begin with, we do not know whether the golf course and resort hotel will attract many visitors to Brindleburg. The success of Seaside Vista may be closely related to some characteristics of the town, e.g. the beautiful scenery and the geographical proximity to sea. Whether or not Brindleburg has the similar resources for tourism to attract the visitors is an important question for further investigation. Without such resources, it may be difficult for Brindleburg to attract tourists relying on the golf course and resort hotel alone. Other factors such as infrastructure, safety and climate of the town also need to be taken into account to see whether tourists would find the new golf course and resort appealing. Another important question we want to ask is whether the 20% increase in visitors can actually be attributed to the contruction of golf course and resort. If the increase is more associated with some conferences held in the town, for example, the argument would be severely undermined.

The mayor seems to reason that the increase in the number of loan applications must be strong evidence of economic growth which may then increase the tax revenue. The reasoning may or may not be valid depending on answers to the following questions. First, what are the main reasons why businesses apply for loan? If they need money to expand their businesses in response to higher demand from more visitors, maybe the government can collect more taxes from increased business acitvities. Alternatively, the business loans may be more closely related to economic recession as local businesses need more money to survive the poorly performing economy. Or the loans are for businesses completely unrelated to tourism. In addition, we may need to ask questions about the tax laws applicable to the local government. Specifically, can the government levy taxes on the expected increased business activities related to booming tourism and precisely how much more tax money can be collected? If the tax laws do not give the government the authority to collect taxes on certain activities, then the prediction will not be accurate.

The final question we need to ask: where did Seaside Vista government collect the extra tax money? While tax revenue increased after the construction of golf course and resort, it does not follow that these two events were causally related. Maybe the government has got more tax money from sources other than tourism, e.g. a new manufacturing factory has been built that generated more tax money.





Argument范文与提纲目录(tesolchina)
http://bbs.gter.net/thread-2030117-1-1.html

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