argument同主题写作第一类 8月14-15日

tesolchinaUID：2191404

8月14日开始第一次的argument同主题写作
1. 观看视频教程学习如何利用Toulmin模型分析argument及提出问题

Lecture 4 Analysing GRE arguments 视频链接

2. 在下列第一类argument中选取一题

Effect of A on B (2, 6, 15<51, 130, 131, 133>, 24<26, 28>, 40, 43, 46, 50, 54<165>, 55, 64, 72, 81, 83<84>, 91, 92<101, 103>, 176)

3. 在回帖中将所选的argument按照视频讲解的Toulmin模型分拆成若干个claim-data-warrant单元

4. 在每个单元下指出本单元涉及的assumption，需要的evidence或要提出的question （具体根据写作指引来选择）
注意：第一次argument同主题写作，并不要求写全文或提纲，而是着重于对argument的分析。建议大家自己用这种方法刷argument题库。  

每一篇Argument我都写了范文或提纲示范。请大家在写完分析后自行和我的示范作对比，并编辑自己的楼层提出问题，注明参考示范后的疑问。我会优先回答这些问题。

附件是本次练习的部分参考答案，有问题请编辑楼层提出或前往主帖答疑区

tesolchinaUID：2191404

占楼

芥弥UID：3802147

101) There is now evidence that the relaxed pace of life in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities. Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Masonton. Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Masonton the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. Finally, the average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Masonton residents. These findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives should consider moving to small communities.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

There is now evidence that the relaxed pace of life in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities.
Claim: Relaxed lifestyle in small towns rather than busy life in big cities promotes heath and longevity.
Data: Not given
Warrant:The health condition and longevity are mainly due to different pace of live in small towns and big cities.
Assumption:The health condition and longevity are mainly due to different pace of live in small towns and big cities.

Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Masonton.
Claim:People in business live a healthier life in small town than those in the large city.
Data: People doing business in Leeville take fewer days of sick leave than those from Masonton.
Warrant: Hectic pace of live in big cities is more likely to cause more unhealthy lifestyle.
Assumption: There are no other factors which could explain for more sick leaves in large cities.
- People are more cautious of their health condition.
- Some records of sick leave are missed in small towns because of their less strict regulation.

Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Masonton the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high.
Claim:Residents in small towns are less likely to get sick than those in large cities.
Data: The proportion of physicians in small towns is far less than that of large cities.
Warrant:High proportion of physicians means much sickness.
Assumption:The physician-resident ratio could accurately reflect health condition.
- The specializtion of these physicians are different: paediatricians, gynaecologists and gerontologists... the well-rounded health system in large cities could safeguard people’ health.
- Physicians want to seek a better career in large cities.

Finally, the average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Masonton residents.
Claim: Relaxed pace of life in small towns could promote greater longevity.
Data: The longevity of people in small towns are higher than that of large cities.
Warrant:Greater longevity is caused by the peaceful life in small towns.
Assumption: The average age could genuinely reflect the longevity of residents.
- More young people in large cities.
- Method of sampling is flawed.

These findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives should consider moving to small communities.
Claim:People seeking longer and healthier lives should choosing small towns.
Data:Three pieces of evidence above.
Warrant: Lifestyle in small towns could promote health and greater longevity.
Assumption: There are no other concerns for those who want to seek a longer and healthier life.
- Whether they could accommodate the climate.
- Whether the security and sanitary condition is well enough.

哥特同学UID：3829477

Arg 2 birth order and stimulation level

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal.  

A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation. The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.  

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

Claim: Birth order has effects on an individual's levels of stimulation
Data:  A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys
Warrant: The study of eighteen rhesus monkeys could proof the an individual's levels of all animals.
Assumptions:
        a) The sample size is large enough to represent all monkey individual’s levels of simulation.
        b) This sample is sufficient enough to reflect the character of all monkeys, and not only just in rhesus monkeys.
        c) The character of monkeys can be extended to all kinds of animals.
Evidence needed: To proof the sample size is large and sufficient enough.

Claim: Firstborn infant monkeys have higher activity levels in simulation situations.
Data:  Hormone cortisol primes the body for increased activity levels.
Warrant:  In stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol as do their younger siblings.
Assumptions: Other factors, such as the age of the monkeys, have no effects on the production of hormone cortisol.
Evidence needed: Case control on observational study.

Claim: Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).
Warrant: The conclusion of the study of eighteen rhesus monkeys can be extended to the case of humans.
Question: Can we deduce the same conclusion in the case of humans just because the study of monkey?
Assumptions: Humans and monkeys has similar mechanism in producing cortisol in simulating situation.
Evidence needed: Further study in proving this similarity.

Claim: Firstborn baby monkeys has higher levels of cortisol because of their mothers.
Data: During pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.
Warrant:  The levels of cortisol of mother monkeys has related to that of baby monkeys.
Question: Is it healthy and general in the monkeys that the case of first-time mother monkeys have higher levels of cortisol？
Evidence needed: Prove that all first-time mother monkeys have higher levels of cortisol, and so as their babies.

战G进行时UID：3727585

Arg 40 dairy products increase the risk of osteoporosis -o

Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium - substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore say that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors and that causes the bones to weaken significantly with age. But a long-term study of a large number of people found that those who consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are symptomatic of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.


Claim: A diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis.
Data: Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium - substances essential for building and maintaining bones.
Warrant: vitamin D and calcium can reduce environmental and genetic factors that cause osteoporosis.
Assumption: The power of vitamin D and calcium is strong enough to neutralize the effects of environmental and genetic factors that cause osteoporosis.
Evidence: information about the effect of vitamin D and calcium


Claim: A diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.
Data: A long-term study of a large number of people found that those who consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study.
Warrant: Bone fractures are symptomatic of osteoporosis
Assumption1: The participants in the study are representative of general people.
Evidence1: information about the people in the study
Assumption2: The people who have bone fractures in the study are patients of osteoporosis
Evidence2: information about the conditions of the participants

天地1沙鸥UID：3654706

Arg 46 citizen fitness level -o

The following appeared in a health magazine published in Corpora.

Medical experts say that only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards for adequate physical fitness, even though twenty years ago, one-half of all of Corpora's citizens met the standards as then defined. But these experts are mistaken when they suggest that spending too much time using computers has caused a decline in fitness. Since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted

Claim: Fitness declines now than before
Data: only one-quarter of Corpora's citizens meet the current standards for adequate physical fitness, while one-half of all of Corpora's citizens met the standards defined twenty years ago.
Warrants: 1) the fitness level are assessed under the assumption that two standards correspond to the fitness level
Assumption: 1) all the two standards reflects the fitness level corresponding to the time

Claim: It is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit
Data: overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest
Warrants: 1) highest computer ownership leads to the highest overall fitness levels
Assumption: 1) no other factors (exercise/ food /wealthy) largely affects the fitness of those people

Claim: Recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause and fitness levels will improve when the economy does
Data: this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services
Warrants: 1) low expenditure shows the decline of economy
                       2) fitness level increases as economy improve
Assumption: 1) low expenditure shows the existed products of people are high, no need to buy
                       2) no other factors(pollution, exercise) largely affects the fitness

wanghaitao199391UID：3704441

Argument 15/51/130/131/133
Arg 15 replace butter with margarine
15) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

Claim: Replacing butter by margarine butter has little influence on customers.
Data: only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
Warrant: since only 2% of the customers complained about margarine replacing butter,  98% of the customers are OK with the replacement.
Assumptions/Evidence: the lack of complaints should not be interpreted as the customers being satisfied with the change. there are other reasons why complaint rate was only 2%.
1.Unsatisfied customer may show their complains on Internet.
2.Customers speak to the restaurant staff directly.
3.Customers may feel embarrassment about complaining.
4.Customers’ high evaluation are not for margarine, there may be alternative methods as free drinks that satisfy them.

Claim: customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine
Data: only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
Warrant: since only 2% of the customers complained about margarine replacing butter,  98% of the customers are OK with the replacement.
Assumptions/Evidence: Servers withhold information about the complaints they received from the customers. More independent investigation about the customer satisfaction about the change of ingredient is necessary to be done.

kyikaUID：3734479

Arg 6 decline of deer caused by global warming

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.


claim: the deer population are declining
data: local hunters report the deer populations are declining.
warrant: (the hunters’ observation is reliable and they are honest. ) implied
questions: 1.how many islands does they investigate to conclude the deer populations are declining 2.are they lying?
assumptions:1. the hunters’ data is reliable.  
2.they didn’t tell a lie in the report
evidence:1. information about how the hunters get their data
        2. information about whether they are honest in the report

claim : (the searching of food is influenced if they can’t moving over ice from island to island) implied
data: They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year
warrant: (there is no other way than migration to search for food) implied
question: what is the relation between searching for food and migration
        is there enough food on a single island?
assumption: migration is necessary for searching food
evidence: information about why they need to migration
         information of the mount of food on islands

claim: deer can’t travel from island to island
data:  recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt
warrant: ( the warming is so severe that there is no sea ice among islands all year round) implied
question: Is there any sea ice among islands?
assumption: deer can’t migration because there isn’t ice among islands
evidence: information about how much sea ice have melted

claim: the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
data:  these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt
warrant: (coincidence means the warming trends cause the declination) implied
question: Is there any other reason can explain the declination?(such as hunting)
assumption: warming trends is coincide with declination so that warming trends cause the declination
evidence: Information about the relation of declination and warming trends

SylviaMengyayaUID：3693199

15) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

Claim: This change has had little impact on our customers.
Fact: only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
Warrant: 2 percent is very little; people who have not complained about the change are happy with the change.
Questions: (1)2% means how many people?
                   (2)Are those who have not complained surely happy with the change?
               
Claim: either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.
Fact: many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
Warrant: what servers have reported are all true; customers do not know their butter has been changed into margarine; customers do not complain directly will not complain through other ways.
Questions: (1)“A number of” means how many?
                   (2)Are there other ways of complaint?(complaining on the telephone or on the internet)
                   (3)Are there some customers already know this change?
                   (4)what if some of the reports are not entirely true?

AngelyyyUID：3625119

6.Decline of deer caused by global warming

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions.They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year.Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.
       
Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Claim（C）:The populations of deer are declining.
Data/Fact（D/F）:
1.The plants that sustained by the warm areas are the food for deer.
2.When the weather is cold enough the deer would immigrate to warmer place.
2.Global warming trends caused the melt of the sea ice which the deer immigrate by.
Warrant（W）:The reports are true from both the local hunters as well as the reports of the global warming trends causing sea ice to melt.
Assumption:
1.The plants sustained by the warm areas are the only food for Arctic deer.
Question/Evidence(Q/E) needed:
-Whether there are other food resource offer to the deer to survive?Such as the assistant food from the Animal Protection Institute,plants in cold area which they eat for emergency.
2.The information that the declination of deer is accurate according to the local hunters.
Question/Evidence(Q/E) needed:
-How the hunters described about the declination of deer?Won’t they just find the wrong habitat of the deer?Or they just heard from a hunter who described very persuasive but not the truth?
3.The sea ice melt at a scale that can’t afford the migration of the deer
Q/E needed:
How much weight do the deer?And how heavy the sea ice could not afford the deer?If the sea ice just melt at a scale that no deer could pass?We need the details of the report.

C:The declination of Arctic deer is caused by the reason that they can’t follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
D/F:
1.Recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt.
2.The deer need to immigrate through the sea ice to a warm place(where have food).
Warrant:Reports from the local hunters that the deer are declining.
Assumption:
1.The global warming trends are the only factor that could lead to the declination of Arctic deer.
Q/E:
Whether there are other factors lead to the declination of deer?Such as hunting or the diseases within the deer group.

东扯扯UID：3763369

24/26/28
A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

24)Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

26)Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

28) Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

Claim: a study investigated the possible therapeutic effect on headache of consuming salicylates
Data: salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches
Warrant: members of the same chemical family possibly have the same effect
Question: is there any lab results or clinical data to prove the therapeutic effect on headache of salicylates?
Evidence: lab results or clinical data to prove the therapeutic effect on headache of salicylates
Assumption: salicylates are likely to have the same effect as aspirin’s

Claim: food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods
Data: salicylates can be preservatives
Warrant: food with preservative can earn more profits
Question: is there any other better or cheaper preservatives?
Evidence: the comparison of salicylate and other preservatives in terms of effect and cost
Assumption: salicylate is the best choice of preservatives

Claim: although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods
Data: many foods are naturally rich in salicylates; salicylates can be preservatives
Warrant: adding salicylates to food can elongate the life span
Question: is there any other change or harm to add more salicylates in salicylates-rich foods for foods themselves or consumers?
Evidence: effects of salicylates-rich foods with extra salicylates preservatives
Assumption: add extra salicylates preservatives can elongate any food’s life span

Claim: there is a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches
Data: the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants
Warrant: salicylates make a contribution to headache cases decline
Question: is the statistics reported by participants reliable? Is the sample number enough to draw a scientific conclusion?
Evidence: scientific diagnosis and assessment for participants; the sample number of the study
Assumption: what study participants report is reliable; the sample number is enough to draw a scientific conclusion

Claim: many companies plan to add salicylates to food
Data: food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods
Warrant: this plan can boost the sale of foods for more profits
Question: is there any other better or cheaper additives?
Evidence: the comparison of salicylate and other additives in terms of effect and cost
Assumption: salicylate is the best choice of additives

Claim: there will be fewer headaches in the future
Data: many company plan to add salicylates in foods
Warrant: salicylates in foods can cure headache
Question: is the salicylates added in food enough to have the therapeutic effects on headache? Will the headache incidence grow in the future?
Evidence: lab or clinical data to show that foods added with salicylates have therapeutic effect on headache
Assumption: all foods added salicylates will cure headaches; the headache incidence will not grow in the future


一开始想着尽可能构建多Toulmin‘s models，然后就一句句细拆。 最后发现真的使强行构建，整个statement的整体性都被破坏光了。 其实我个人觉得对于每道题claim只有一个，中间的全部都是data/reason/assumption，应该是以拆claim的目的去argue中间的那些成分，这样可以把中间的东西和statement的final conclusion联系起来，达到真的argue这个statement的目的。

遠子wUID：3788646

Argument 101 Assumption

101) There is now evidence that the relaxed pace of life in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities. Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Masonton. Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Masonton the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. Finally, the average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Masonton residents. These findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives should consider moving to small communities.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.


1. Claim: Relaxed pace of life in small towns facilitates health
Data: Workers in small towns report fewer days of sick leave
Warrant: A person with fewer days of sick leave is healthier

Assumption: A worker’s day of sick leave is an effective indicator of a resident’s health condition
- Are all sick workers be granted with sick leaves? Is it easier to apply for a sick leave in small towns?
(e.g in small towns- less restrictive administrative procedures, less promotion opportunity or less deduction in salaries and welfare -> incentive )
- Can workers represent the whole population?
(e.g perhaps the old and the disabled are more representative? Include health situations of people with different ages and different occupations?)

2. Claim: Relaxed pace of life in small towns facilitates health
Data: The small town Leeville has a lower rate of physician per resident than the big city Masonton.
Warrant: An individual in small town need fewer physicians, thus is healthier

Assumption: Residents in small towns do not urgently and eagerly need more physicians
(small towns- lack resources and financial supports to hire more physicians )

3. Claim: Relaxed pace of life in small town improve residents’ longivity
Data: The average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Masonton residents
Warrant: More relaxed is the pace of life, longer do its residents live

Assumption:  It is the relaxed pace of life in Leeville that lead to a higher average age of residents in Leeville
(probably it is clean water and air or difference in genes rather than relaxed pace-> higher average age )

mzlgjgUID：3804664

51.The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

Claim: Replacing butter by margarine won’t affect selling.
Data: Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
Warrant: 2% is small enough to ignore.
Questions:
1.Are those who haven’t complained happy about this change?
2.Is the customers’ reaction solely towards this change（is there any other interference in the restaurant when this survey is made）?
3.Is there any other way for customers to complain other than directly to the stuff?

Claim: Either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.
Data: Many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
Warrant: People who have dicovered the butter is actually margarine will directly complain this to restaurant stuff.
Question: 1.Is there any other ways for customers to complain when they find butter to be margarine?

Claim: Replacing butter by margarine will make more profits.
Data: to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability
Warrant: The cost of margarine in other places will be less than that of butter.
Question: 1.Is the cost of margarine less than that of butter everywhere in America?

Claim: People’s reaction to supplanting butter with margarine will be the same in southeast and northeast as southwest.
Data: The Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.
Warrant: people will have the same reaction towards this change as people in southwest.
Question:1. Is people’s reaction in this case applicable in the southeast and northeast?

这是第一次写arguement，发现对于Claim和warrant有的时候会很困惑，似乎有的句子放在两处都能说得通啊？

amber_123UID：3830001

Arg 2 birth order and stimulation level

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal.  

A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation.The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.  

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument. 

1
Claim: firstborn monkeys have higher levels of stimulation than later ones
Data: in stimulating situations(such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol as do their younger siblings
Warrant: (more hormone cortisol would lead to higher level of stimulation)

Assumption: no other possible stimulations to produce cortisol (age,race); in all kinds of stimulating situations, firstborns all produce more cortisol(unfamiliar monkey, new toy)

2
claim: (firstborn humans have higher levels of stimulation than later ones)
data: Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations
warrant: (more hormone cortisol would lead to higher level of stimulation)

assumption: there’s no other possible stimulations to produce cortisol(cognitive ability)
evidence: man and woman, young and old, all the races are in accordance with the data

3
claim: (firstborn monkeys tend to have a higher level of cortisol than later borns)
data: The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.
Warrant: (the more cortisol mother monkeys have, the more cortisol newly-born monkeys would have)

Evidence: the level of cortisol could be inherited

4
claim: birth order has an impact on an individual's levels of stimulation
data: A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation
warrant:(the research of 18 samples is valid)

evidence: the sample is comprehended

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4、birth order and stimulation level（2）

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal.  

“A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation. The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring. ”

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.


Claim: birth order effect an individual’s stimulation level
Data: A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation.
Warrant: a recent study of monkeys has shown the clue
Assumption: eighteen rhesus monkeys are adequate enough (including the quantity and the specie) to study the relationship between birth order and individual’s stimulation level

Claim: firstborn monkeys have higher stimulation level
Data: The study showed that in stimulating situations, firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings.
Warrant: firstborn monkeys produce much more hormone cortisol than their younger brothers and sisters towards stimulating situations
Assumption: hormone cortisol can correctly reflect the stimulation level of monkeys with other factors (like the sexuality and age) are all same

Claim: firstborn humans also have higher stimulation level
Data: Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).
Warrant: firstborn humans produce higher cortisol in stimulation situations
Assumption: cortisol can also reflect the stimulation level of humans with other factors (like the sexuality and age) are all same

Claim: first-time mother produce more cortisol
Data: The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.
Warrant: first-time mothers have more cortisol level than non-first-time mothers during pregnancy
Assumption: mother’s cortisol level is related to child’s cortisol level