argument同主题写作第一类 8月14-15日

alicechun95UID：3729243

Argument 15/51/130/131/133

Arg 15 replace butter with margarine

15) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.


Claim: The change that butter has been replaced by margarine has had little impact on the customers of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Data: only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
Warrant: only a few people have complained about the replacement, so most of the customers do not care about it.

Assumptions: If customers do not complain or do not directly complain to the restaurants, it can be considered that they are satisfied with the replacement.
Evidence: More information about feedback of customers to further know about their real ideas.


Claim: Either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.
Data: Many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead
Warrant:  Customers do not complain to servers when served with margarine instead of butter, so they cannot tell the difference between these two things or between these two terms.
Assumptions: The servers' reports are totally credible. And the fact that customers do not complain means they cannot differentiate between butter and margarine.
Evidence: More information about the reliability of the servers. More information about the real thoughts of customers when they are served with margarine instead of butter. All of the ways for customers to complain.

kyikaUID：3734479

51) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.


Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
claim: 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change
data: Only about 2 percent of customers have complained
warrant: those customers don’t complained are happy about the change
question: Are all the customers didn’t complained happy? If not, how many customers among those don’t complained are happy?
assumption: every unsatisfied customer complains
evidence: Information about how many unhappy customers complained and how many customers don’t complained are happy.

Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
claim: either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine
data: many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
warrant:  ( there isn’t any other explanation about why their customers don’t complain)
question: Is their any other reason account for the phenomenon that customers do not complain?
evidence: Information about the reasons that customers don’t complain
assumption: customers don’t complain only because of they cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine

Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.
1 claim:  the change can increase profitability
data:  customers don’t complain about margarine, margarine is cheaper
warrant: lacking of complain means the customers like the restaurant as before.
question: Won’t the change cause declination of the number of customers?
assumption: the number of customers won’t decrease
evidence: opinion among those don’t complain about whether they will go to Happy Pancake House restaurants as before

2. claim:  ( the change in southeast and northeast will be profitable )
data: the change in southwest is cost-saving
warrant: result of southwest can be applied to southeast and northeast
assumption: customers in southeast and northeast is similar to southwest
evidence: information that show the similarity between customers in southwest and customers in southeast and northeast
question: Will customers in southeast and northeast like the change?

3.
claim: change from butter to margarine is viable
data: margarine is cheaper
warrant: margarine is as healthy as butter
question: Is margarine healthy?
evidence: information about the quality of margarine
assumption: margarine is beneficial to customers’ health

今天是第一天准备argument,又写了一个，欢迎拍砖

露葵.UID：3822722

rg 2 birth order and stimulation level

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal.  

A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation. The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.  

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.


Claim：Firstborn individual produce more hormone cortisol because of the birth order) implied
Data: 1、Firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol;
2、Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations;
Warrant: There are no other factors causing higher hormone cortisol level.
Question: Is there any possibility that firstborn individuals produce more hormone cortisol because they are older?( larger body sizes & more sensitive & mature nervous system)
Assumption: The age won’t change how much hormone cortisol they produce when facing stimulating situations.
Evidence: more lab data to prove that hormone cortisol producing won’t change with age.

Claim: birth order has effect on individual’s levels of stimulation.
Data: Firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol;
Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations;
Warrant1: 18 monkeys are enough to draw this conclusion.
Question1:  Can we draw a conclusion after studying only 18 monkeys?
Assumption1: The 18 samples are representative enough.
Evidence1:

Warrant2: The statement can be applied to all species when it’s true for monkeys and human.
Question2: The statement can be applied to all species when it’s true for monkeys and human.
Assumption2: This feature of monkey can be extended to other species.
Evidence2: lab data proving that the rules of hormone cortisol producing are the same in any specy.



Claim: birth order has effect on individual’s levels of stimulation.
Data: First-time mother monkey had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring
Warrant: First-time mother producing higher levels of cortisol means firstborn baby will do so.
Question: Is there any relationship between the amount of cortisol produced by mother and baby monkeys?
Assumption: baby monkeys will have higher cortisol level of mothers produce more cortisol when pregnant.
Evidence: relevant research


写作中的小疑惑：切入点只有几个，大家写的都已一样，会不会被判雷同？
批改：32楼
找的三个攻击点都很有力，data warrant都没问题
只有几个小点，
we need more evidence about whether this decreasing trend will go on中，材料和第一段都没提及是什么decrease,这里最好写the decrease trend of sth will go on
There is a great possibility 我觉得说great不妥，就写有可能就足够了
还有最后一段应该是town吧~

HelloC424UID：3815350

24) A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.


claim：health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future because of the using of Salicylates.

data1：Salicylates just likes aspirin which used to treat headaches.
warrant:aspirin could treat headaches, salicylates could also use as medicine because these two elements are from the very same chemical family.
questions：Are there any valid results of a lab or scientific experiments of the Salicylates can prove that it is as useful as the aspirin to treat headaches?
assumption:Salicylates is as efficacious as aspirin in treating headaches.
evidence: specific valid proof about the salicylates

data2:While there are many foods contain rich salicylates, salicylates can also be added into foods.
warrant:salicylates are sustainable
questions:Whether is adding salicylates to the foods detrimental? Is there any datas to measure that?
assumption:Adding salicylates to the foods is harmless even benign.
evidence: clear evidence about the dozes or characteristics about adding s to food.

data3：There is a study found once the use of s increasing, the number of  headaches will decline.
warrant：Investgation clearly expose that s has something to do with declining headaches.
question：
What are the detail information about the study?
What consisted of the samples of the study?
Did the scientist control other variables during the investigation?
We need some details.
assumption: The study is scientific and persuasive enough.
evidence: detailed information about that study.

data4：Many companies found and plan to add s to foods as flavor additive.
warrant:adding s to foods as flavor additive is profitable
question: Is there any cheaper flavor additive than s?
assumption:Using s as flavor additive is cheaper enough and harmless, which convince people about its benefit and attractive people to buy products.
evidence: About the prices or costs of s and other addictives.

写起来比较重复，有一些地方比较牵强，不知道具体写全文的时候应该怎么操作？

游离雨UID：3816551

Argument 50
Arg 50lavender: effective remedy for insomnia

An ancient, traditional remedy for insomniathe scent of lavender flowershas now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored electronically. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. At the beginning of the second week, the volunteers discontinued their sleeping medication. During that week, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. Therefore, the study proves that lavender cures insomnia within a short period of time.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Claim: The study could demonstrate the effectiveness of the remedy.
Data: In a recent study, the sleep of 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia for three weeks in a controlled room was monitored.
Warrant: The effectiveness displayed in the third weeks in the controlled room could also appear outside the experimental condition. (implied)
Evidence: information about the effectiveness of the remedy outside the controlled room.

Claim: The study could demonstrate the effectiveness of the remedy.
Data: During the third week , the volunteers get sound sleep.
Warrant: The design of the experiment is reasonable.
Evidence: information about the results in a research with a controlled experiment.

Claim: The sleep in third week compared with that of the first and second week could demonstrate the effectiveness of the remedy in the controlled condition.
Data: During the third week , the volunteers get sound sleep.
Warrant: The sound sleep is due to the effectiveness of the remedy.
Evidence: information about the reason why volunteers get a sound sleep in week three. Maybe it is because of the tiredness in week two.

困惑还是觉得写起来很重复。理不清楚。

telepathyivanUID：3790595

130) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have filed a formal complaint, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants throughout the rest of the country.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

Only about 2 percent of customers have filed a formal complaint, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
Claim: an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
Data: Only about 2 percent of customers have filed a formal complaint
Warrant: People who do not complain are happy with the change implied
Assumption:
People who hate the serive all express their complaint without holding it.

Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
Claim: People feel fine with the margarine.
Data: a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
Warrant: People are comfortable with the change because they do not complain with the change.
Assumption:
The servers were reporting the real situation without trying to embellish stores’ appearance.
People who have bad feelings all articulate their thoughts without fearing of wasting time or other elements.

Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.
Claim: either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.
Data: a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
Warrant: People do not complain because they cannot distinguish these two or they misuse the name.
Assumption:
There are only these two factors influencing the action of complaint. And other factors like channels of making comlaint do not exist

Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants throughout the rest of the country.
Claim: extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants throughout the rest of the country.
Data: All mentioned above
Warrant: With all these aforementioned, the replacement of butter with margarine can be promoted to other stores.
Assumption:
Other stores are same with this store and the so-called good feedback from customers can be replicated.

拒绝失学UID：3827856

24) A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

Claim: Residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

Data1: Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches.
Warrant1: Salicylates has the same effect with aspirin, because they come from the same chemical family.
Question1: Is there any valid scientific research regarding the effect of Salicylates.

Data2: The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants.
Warrant2: Correlation implies causal relationship. The respondents are representative.
Question2: Is there any other reasons causing the decline of headaches, such as life style, climatic condition and so forth? Are those respondents representative? Is the Salicylates the ultimate reason for the decline?

Data3: At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so.
Warrant 3: The customers will buy the products, which are added Salicylates as addictive.
Question 3 : Will the customers buy the products? Do they like the flavor? Will the add of Salicylates cause the rise of price?

keaixiaotangUID：3248795

91.Three years ago, because of flooding at the Western Palean Wildlife Preserve, 100 lions and 100 western gazelles were moved to the East Palean Preserve, an area that is home to most of the same species that are found in the western preserve, though in larger numbers, and to the eastern gazelle, a close relative of the western gazelle. The only difference in climate is that the eastern preserve typically has slightly less rainfall. Unfortunately, after three years in the eastern preserve, the imported western gazelle population has been virtually eliminated. Since the slight reduction in rainfall cannot be the cause of the virtual elimination of western gazelle, their disappearance must have been caused by the larger number of predators in the eastern preserve.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Claim1: the Eestern Palean Preserve is a place as suitable as the Western Palean Wildlife Preserve for western gazelle to live.
Data1:100 western gazelles were moved to the East Palean Preserve because of flooding at the Western Palean Wildlife Preserve. It’s an area that is home to most of the same species that are found in the western perserve.
Warrant1:the environment of eastern palean preserve is almost the same as the western palean wildlife

Question1 : the eastern palean preserve is suitable for the western gazelles to live? The eastern palean preserve is the same palce as the Western Palean Wildlife Preserve for the western gazelles to live?
Assumption1:an area that is home of most of the same species that found in the western palean wildlife means a home of the western gazelles?
Evidence1 need: climate, water, food, suitable for the western gazelles?

Claim2:western gazelles and eastern gazelles are close relatives that they can live in the same circumstances.
Data2: though in larger numbers, and to the eastern gazelle, a close relative of the western gazelle.
Warrant2: western gazelles and eastern gazelles are close relatives, so they can live in the same area.

Question2: If the food in the eastern area is enough after their moving in?
Assumtion2:the food is enough for all the gazelles.
Evidence2 need: After their moving in, the situation of the food for all the gazelles.


Claim3:the cause of the elimination of imported western gazelles is the large number of predators in the eastern preserve.
Data3: Since the slight reduction in rainfall cannot be the cause of the virtual elimination of western gazelle, their disappearance must have been caused by the larger number of predators in the eastern preserve.
Warrant3:the slightly less rainfall has no effect in the living of the western gazelles. The only reason of their elimination is the predators.

Question3:Other reason for the elimination of the western gazelles. Such as food supply, the competition of the eastern and western gazelles, the adaptation of the western gazelles.
Assumption3:predator is the only reason for the elimination of the western gazelles.
Evidence3 needed: after the western gazelles and lions were moved in, the condition of the competition between eastern and western gazelles,the adaptation of the western gazelles

Claim4: the imported western gazelles were all eliminated.
Data4: after three years in the eastern preserve, the imported western gazelle population has been virtually eliminated.
Warrant4: the dead gazelles are all from western Palean Wildlife.

Question4:Since the eastern and western gazelles are close relatives, why did the author say the western gazelles were eliminated? How did he/she distinguish between the two kinds?
Assumption4: the dead gazelles were all from western wildlife preserve.
Evidence4 needed: how the author decided the gazelles which died were all from western?

Fitness-GuUID：3794873

arguemen2:
Claim:firstborn infant monkeys can produce higher levels.
Data:  A recent study of 18 rhesus monkeys
Warrant: In stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol as do their younger siblings.
Question:the study does not tell us born order is the only factor influencing the level of cortisol.

Assumptions:
        a) The sample size is large enough to represent all monkey individual’s levels of simulation.
        b) This sample is sufficient enough to reflect the character of all monkeys, and not only just in rhesus monkeys.
        c) The character of monkeys can be extended to all kinds of animals.
Evidence needed: To proof the sample size is large and sufficient enough.


Claim: Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).
Warrant: The conclusion from the study of eighteen rhesus monkeys can be extended to the case of humans.
Question: there may be some sampling bias,can we draw a same conclusion just because of humans and monkeys sharing some same characteristics?
can we extend these similarities to the all species even if humans have?
Assumptions: Humans and monkeys have similar mechanism in producing cortisol in simulating situations.
Evidence needed: conducting more researches to analyze these similarities and more species.

Claim: First-time mother monkeys have higher levels of cortisol because of pregnancy.
Data: During pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring. 
Warrant:  The levels of cortisol of mother monkeys has related to that of baby monkeys.
Question: the level of hormone cortisol of pregnant monkey may be higher but not abnormal.
Even if abnormal,it cannot induce that the offspring also have abnormal levels of hormone cortisol.
Evidence needed: Prove that all first-time mother monkeys have higher levels of cortisol, and so do all their babies.

wanghaitao199391UID：3704441

Argument 92/101/103
Arg 92 relaxed pace causes fewer sick days -o

92) Workers in the small town of Leeville take fewer sick days than workers in the large city of Masonton, 50 miles away. Moreover, relative to population size, the diagnosis of stress-related illness is proportionally much lower in Leeville than in Masonton. According to the Leeville Chamber of Commerce, these facts can be attributed to the health benefits of the relatively relaxed pace of life in Leeville.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

Claim: Health benefits of relaxed pace of life in Leeville make fewer sick days of workers there.
Data:
1.Workers in the small town of Leeville take fewer sick days than workers in the large city of Masonton.
2.the diagnosis of stress-related illness is proportionally much lower in Leeville than in Masonton.
Warrant: According to the Leeville Chamber of Commerce, these facts can be attributed to the health benefits of the relatively relaxed pace of life in Leeville.
Assumptions/Evidence:
1.Workers in Leeville who are sick continue to work rather than take sick days like workers in Masonton because their companies don’t allow them to.
2.Workers in Leeville who have stress-related illness don’t even know that they are sick due to the lack of diagnostic there.
3.Higher stress-related illness in Masonton may be caused by air pollution or noise, not pace of life.
我不太会用这个结构来拆这篇了，感觉和昨天的那篇不一样，这篇结构没有那么一一对应，需要自己理解的比较多。是不是能自圆其说就行呢？

丽丽酱香饼UID：3764419

Arg 2 birth order and stimulation level

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal.  

A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation.The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.  

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

Claim: Birth order has effects on an individual's levels of stimulation.
Data: A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues.
Warrant: The clues should be reasonable given the recent study (implied)

Questions:
Is the sample size sufficient large?
Do rhesus monkeys have specificity?
Can monkey represent other species?
Assumptions:
the sample size is large enough.
rhesus monkeys are representative.
monkey can represent other species
Evidence needed:
the larger sample size
        the study of other kind of monkeys
the study of other species

Claim: Birth order has effects on monkeys; hormone cortisol produce in stimulation (implied)
Data: The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings.
Warrant: Firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol as do their younger siblings because of birth order.

Questions:
        Is birth order the only reason of much hormone cortisol produced by firstborn infant monkeys?
a.        Age advantage
b.        Better development
Do firstborn infant monkeys and their younger siblings have same hormone cortisol level before stimulating?
Assumptions:
no other factors have effects on the production of hormone cortisol
firstborn infant monkeys and their younger siblings have same hormone cortisol level before stimulating
Evidence needed:
information about other factors which could influence the production of hormone cortisol
information about hormone cortisol level of firstborn infant monkeys and their younger siblings before stimulating

Claim: Birth order has effects on humans' cortisol produce in stimulation (implied)
Data: Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).
Warrant: Firstborn humans produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations because of birth order.

Question:
Is the sample size of humans sufficient large?
Is birth order the only reason of much cortisol produced by firstborn humans?
Assumptions:
the sample size of humans is sufficient large
birth order is the only reason of much cortisol produced by firstborn humans
Evidence needed:
The sample size of humans in study
information about other factors which could influence the production of cortisol

Claim: First-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring, so the first born babies perform better in stimulation.
Data: The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.  
Warrant: The first born babies perform better in stimulation because of their mothers’ higher levels of cortisol.

Question:
Do mothers’ higher levels of cortisol have effects on their babies?
Assumption:
mothers’ higher levels of cortisol have effects on their babies
Evidence needed:
Reasons about mothers’ higher levels of cortisol have effects on their babies

sofresh666888UID：3822782

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Claim: (Arctic deer is a unique species in the world, which lives in a specific area) implied
Data: Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions.
Warrant: (arctic deer live in ice islands) implied

Claim: (moving over ice is a necessary condition for them to search food.) implied
Data: They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year.
Warrant: (Without ice, their food transfer will fail.) implied
Evidence needed: what plants do they eat.

Claim: (Their living condition is very strict.)
Data: Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.
Warrant: (They can find plants in warm place and transfer by ice which needed to be cold enough.)

Claim: (Hunters report the number of the deer is declining)
Data: Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining.
Warrant: Probably during hunting, hunters realize there are less and less deer.
Assumptions: 1) no alternative reports from other fields are available.
                         2) Alternative reports, such as: biological species report from academic field, report based on food chain circle.

Claim: Global warming has caused the declination of the deer population.
Data: Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
Warrant: Global warming caused sea ice melting which has destroyed their platform for travelling food.
Assumptions: alternative factors cause the deer population decline, which can be hunting, sea pollution, plants growing situation.
Evidence needed: 1) sea ice melting situation in this area.
                                 2) Comparison between the number of the deer before global warming and after global warming.  
                                 3) Number of deer hunting.
                                 4) plants growing situation.
                                 5) Sea pollution.

深井冰233UID：3756251

Arg 2 birth order and stimulation level

The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a scientific journal.  

A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation.The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.  

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

cycle 1
claim: firstborn infant monkeys have higher levels of stimulation
data: in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings
warrant: firstborn infant monkeys produce more hormone cortisol, have higher levels of stimulation
evidence needed: info about other stimulating situations

cycle 2
claim: firstborn humans have higher levels of stimulation
data: Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).
warrant: firstborn humans produce more cortisol
assumption: Firstborn humans produce more cortisol as well as firstborn monkeys, so firstborn humans have higher levels of stimulation just as do firstborn monkeys

cycle 3
claim: first-time mother monkeys have higher levels of stimulation
data: during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring
warrant:first-time mother monkeys produce more cortisol
evidence needed: info about stimulating situations
question: How do first-time mother monkeys react to his/her born babies of different birth order in different stimulating situations?

cycle 4
claim: birth order has influences on an individual's levels of stimulation
data: clues provided by the recent study of 18 rhesus monkeys
warrant: firstborn infant monkeys & first-time mother monkeys have higher levels of stimulation; firstborn humans have higher levels of simulation as well
questions:
Do first-time mother humans have higher levels of cortisol than do those who have several offspring?
What is the case between secondborn infant/second-time mother?
How reliable were the simulating conditions?

youzi42UID：3806028

argument 2

A recent study of eighteen rhesus monkeys provides clues as to the effects of birth order on an individual's levels of stimulation.The study showed that in stimulating situations (such as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings. Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).The study also found that during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.  

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

Claim :  birth order has effects on a firstborn infant monkeys 's levels of stimulation
Data : as an encounter with an unfamiliar monkey), firstborn infant monkeys produce up to twice as much of the hormone cortisol, which primes the body for increased activity levels, as do their younger siblings.
Warrent :first infant monkeys' levels of stimulation is more strong than their younger siblings

Question : Is the study compelling enough given that it has only 18 samples?
Assumption : The samples of the study are large enough .
Evidence needed : more samples in the study result in  the same outcomes .

Claim : birth order has effects on humans' levels of stimulation
Data : Firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations (such as the return of a parent after an absence).
Warrent : firstborn humans's effects on stimulating situations are more obvious than his younger sisters or brothers

Question : Are there any factors that can alter the results?
Assumption : The birth order is the only factors in human's levels of stimulation .
Evidence needed : The study is carried out with other factors .

Claim : birth order has effects on a first-time mother monkeys 's levels of stimulation
Data : during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring.  
Warrent : those experienced mothers are less affected by the stimulation of pregnancy .
Question : Is the study compelling enough given that it has only 18 samples?
Assumption : Every first-pregent mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than did those who had had several offspring
Evidence needed : many samples of first-birth mother monkeys

疑惑：
还是不怎么会寻找QUESTION ， 觉得这三个例子有点相像 。

ChiuChiKwanUID：3828648

51.The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

Claim: The customers who don't complain doesn't mean they are satisfied with the supplantment.
Data:  Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
Warrant: 2% is just a percentage rather than a detailed number.
Questions:
1. Where did the complaints collect? From people who prefer margarine compared with butter?
2. Is the base of customers large enough? If the base is enough, the loss is considerable as well.
3. Is it real that 98% of customers are satisfied with the change? What if some of them choose another way to boycott this change,such as never buying pancakes from this company since the change？


Claim: It is credit that promote everlasting prosperity in business.
Data: Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine.
Warrant:Profits couldn't be milked because of deceiving customers.
Question: What if some customers find the truth and spread the truth that buyers don't get goods as the same value as they pay?

Claim: Whether the replacement can help improve the profit?
Data: Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine.
Warrant:Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.
Question:
1. It is unknown the cost of margarine and profits are made up of cost and income.
2. There is no evidence or hint that the purchase of pancake will increase after the change. What if less people choose this pancake house?