argument第四类 同主题写作 8月26-27日

Dover999UID：3808377

5) The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

尝试写老师 说的模板提纲，可是感觉很难，就直接写全文了
The author of the letter to the editor recommends that the Balmer’s town council should constrict the number of daily mopeds rented from rental companies  so as to decrease the moped accidents. The support warrant comes from the abutting island of Seaville.  To validate the plan, we need answer such questions, the major reason caused the accidents, whether the rental mopeds occupy the main parts among all the mopeds and the number of the rental mopeds during the four seasons separately.   


We have known that the mopeds, a fashionable way of transportation in the Balmer Island, can caused accidents, but we don’t know how does these accidents happen. Hence the answers to the question about the reason of these accidents are need in order to think of a efficicate way to decrease the accident. It maybe because the pedestrians usually don’t comply to traffic rules  that causes the accidents. In such a circumstance, a decrease in the number of the mopeds can’t solve the problem effectively. On the contrary, the council should strengthen  the pedestrians’ awareness of traffic rules in order to decrease the accidents. Hence it’s very important to figure out the main reason that causes the accidents before the council hatch out any scheme.

Even though we are told that reason of the accidents are find out and decrease the number of mopeds can indeed drop the accidents, the question on whether mopeds from the rentals companies account for the major parts among the mopeds in the streets needs to be answered. If most of the mopeds in the streets don’t come from the rentals companies but personal possess, it makes little sense to limit the number of rentals mopeds per day. It’s more useful to limit or ban the total the mopeds in the streets than merely constrict the rentals companies.  
If the answers to above question are positive, we still need to the answer the question that if there are most people by mopeds during the summer. The summer maybe so hot that enforce most of people don’t choose the mopeds as main measure to go out. However, when it’s  spring or autumn season, the climate are temperate and the mopeds becomes the most popular way of transportation. It’s more advisable to adopt such a scheme during spring and autumn season than the summer season.   So it’s meaningful to answer such a question before carrying out this plan only during summer season.

芸乔UID：3596115

41) The following appeared in a health newsletter.

A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.



The author of the newsletter cast doubt on the effectiveness and necessity of wearing a helmet when bicycling. Data about the percentage of bicycle-related accidents has increased in the last ten years. The author therefore claims that the public safety-education is more efficient than the encouragement and requirement of wearing helmets. However, more evidence is needed to help us evaluate the author’s conclusion. If these assumptions prove unwarranted, the argument will be seriously undermined.

To begin with, although the number of bicycle-related accidents is three times of the data ten years ago, we cannot safely assume that the increased accidents should be attributed to the people wearing helmets. That is to say, there is no proved relationship between the people wearing helmets and the bicycles. It is possible that accidents are caused by people who do not wear helmets.  

修改晚点补上，先打个主卡。

freefmUID：3688595

前意识的斑点 发表于 2017-8-27 15:21
In this argument, the manager of WWAC radio station concludes that they need to change to a news and ...

1. more evidence are needed to evaluate the argument, 不一定会是加强，evidence不可数
2. perhaps the radio should think about attract more young people. 这句话有些中式，think about后跟句子或者名词，这儿跟了一个动词。
3. 第三段，music format应该加一个the；there be 句型那个start应该是starting
4.第四段，help sb do；
5.首尾句基本一样，可以换个句式什么的。

芥弥UID：3802147

171) The following appeared as a letter to the editor from the owner of a skate shop in Central Plaza.

Two years ago the city voted to prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. They claimed that skateboard users were responsible for the litter and vandalism that were keeping other visitors from coming to the plaza. In the past two years, however, there has only been a small increase in the number of visitors to Central Plaza, and litter and vandalism are still problematic. Skateboarding is permitted in Monroe Park, however, and there is no problem with litter or vandalism there. In order to restore Central Plaza to its former glory, then, we recommend that the city lift its prohibition on skateboarding in the plaza.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

According to the memo, the owner of a skate shop in Central Plaza claimed that the city should lift its ban on skateboarding in the plaza. This argument is concluded by referring to the phenomenon of vandalism and litter, the small increase in the visitor number and the measure taken in Monroe Park. Several questions have arised from this argument and the reasoning process. In order to decide if it is a wise choice to follow the measure taken in Monroe Park, we have to investigate this matter thoroughly to answer these questions.

To begin with, we want to ask the question why litter and vandalism happened and whether these reasons are related to skateboard users. It is possible that a large amount of litter was caused by the visitors going there. Likewise,it is equally possible that vandalism was caused by the local kids playing in the plaza. In cases of these, it is far from reasonable to attribute these phenomena to the skateboard users. Therefore, we should investigate the reason of litter and vandalism in the plaza and its correlation with skateboarding before we could decide if skateboard users were responsible for the litter and vandalism in the Central Plaza.

遠子wUID：3788646

3.The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.
"Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

•        Claim: prohibiting skateboarding
Data: number of shoppers decreases, while popularity of skateboarding increases
Warrant: popularity of skateboarding -> decrease in number of shoppers
Question:
1.        Time sequence? If decrease in number of shoppers occurs first?
2.        Other reasons other than popularity of skateboarding?

•        Claim: prohibiting skateboarding
Data: amount of litter and vandalism increases
Warrant: popularity of skateboarding -> litter and vandalism -> decrease in number of shoppers
Question:
1.        relationship between popularity of skateboarding and litter vandalism?
2.        Will this policy that is prohibiting skateboarding be effective?


The author of the letter recommends that skateboarding should be prohibited in order to let the business in Central Plaza to bounce back to the previous level (or resume the business to the previous level). The recommendation is based on the assumption that popularity of skateboarding causes the number of shoppers in Central Plaza to decrease. However, in order to evaluate the author’s recommendation, we still need to answer several questions such as the sequence of the popularity of skateboarding and the decline in the number of shoppers, other possible reasons that may lead to gloomy business in Central Plaza, the relationship between vandalism and skateboarding, and the effectiveness of prohibiting skateboarding.
Firstly, the question about the sequence of the two events should be addressed. In the letter, the statistic shows that when skateboarding becomes popular, number of shoppers in Central Plaza declines. And the author assumes that the popularity of skateboarding occurred first. However, if before the skateboarding became popular, number of shoppers already had started to decline rapidly, then we might not be able to conclude that the popularity of skateboarding causes the decrease in number of shoppers. Decline in number of shoppers might be caused by other reasons. Therefore, prohibiting skateboarding might not be effective to boom the business.
Moreover, there might be other possible reasons that cause the decline in the number of shoppers. For example, the city where Central Plaza is located could encounter economic crisis in recent years, so people’s purchasing power decreased. And they could not afford to shop in the Central Plaza; thus, the number of shoppers declined. Under this circumstance, prohibiting skateboarding would not boom the business because popularity of skateboarding is not the reason behind the gloomy business. (同一了一下時態，全部改成了過去式＋虛擬語氣)
Furthermore, we also need to examine the relationship between vandalism and skateboarding. In the letter, the author implies that skateboarding brought vandalism and littering, and due to vandalism and littering, the number of shoppers declined. However, vandalism and littering might not be related to skateboarding. For example, vandalism and littering might arise because the security of Central Plaza became weak or Central Plaza fired many policemen. In this case, vandalism might not arise from skateboarding, so popularity of skateboarding might not be the indirect cause of decrease in number of shoppers. Thus, prohibiting skateboarding might be useless. (發現自己有時候用may有時候用might。。。orz)
Finally, we also need to ask about the effectiveness of prohibiting skateboarding. If we assume that the author’s claim is true, that skateboarding did cause the number of shopper to decrease, we still might need to examine the effectiveness of prohibiting skateboarding. We may need to ask if the damage caused by skateboarding is enduring and long-term. For example, skateboarding might leave a very bad impression on shoppers so that they did not want to come back ever. Even prohibiting skateboarding could not fix the damage under this circumstance. Therefore, prohibiting skateboarding might be not effective in this case.
In conclusion, without answering the above questions, it is difficult to decide if the author’s claim or recommendation has predictive power or not.

gre满分周UID：3828848

3)The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.

Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

In this letter to a Central Plaza store owner, the author recommends oust the increasing amount of skaters because they result in the depletion of customers. To support his/her claim, the author lists some examples indicating the ringing population has certain connection with the cut down of the amount of the consumption. Quite convincing though his/her argument may seem at first glance, there are a number of questions regarding his/her lines of reasoning that need further analysis. The argument could end up being pretty convincing or invalid in the end, depending on the answers to those questions.

To begin with, the author’s reasoning relies on surface phenomenon of decreasing customers accompanying with increasing skaters, a question that is not answered. It is possible that some other plaza more popular among people that have been built in some place which attract customers used to visit Central Plaza. Without additional information to assure whether the rising skaters assume an role of depression of the economy, it is possible that there is no connection between economic depression and skating population arisen. This scenario would seriously challenge the predicted in expelling the skating people, and render the author’s recommendation much less advisable. On the other hand, any valid proof that the banishment is well founded will strengthen the author’s argument.   

youzi42UID：3806028

Arg 109 shift programming in radio station-o

109) The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful. The switch from rock-and-roll music to 24-hour news will attract older listeners and secure KNOW radio's future.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

claim: Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format.

data: the number of the listeners
warrant: Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined.
assumption: listeners aren't interested in the rock-and-roll music
evidence: - people prefer listening to continuous news to rock-and-roll music
                 - the quality of the radio has nothing to do with the declined number of listeners

data: sales of recorded music
warrant: Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music.
assumption: recorded music is no longer popular
evidence: - the market of the recorded music to ensures that the poor sales has nothing to do with the shopworn sale strategies of the stores
                 - the online sales of music records

data: news station
warrant: Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful.
assumption: continuous news format is more popular
evidence: the citizens in this city would like continuous news stations too

  Recently, the declined numbers of listeners and poor sales of recorded music let the general manager of KNOW radio decide to make a reform. He tends to transfer the style of radio from rock-and-roll music to the seemingly more promising continuous news format. Obviously, the decision is based on many assumptions, explicitly or implicitly, which need further explorations to evaluate the recommendation.
  First of all, based on the number of listeners in the KNOW radio, we can assume that the listeners are more likely to watch the 24-hour news . However, we can't make an judgment that the listeners would like the new form merely depend on the the phenomena. Since other than rock-and-roll music, there are still diverse choices for the listeners to choose from. If the majority of the listeners still prefer music radio, not the continuous news, then, the general manager would fail to catch the listener's ears again.
  Secondly, according to the decreased sales of recorded music, there is an assumption that people no longer longing for the rock-and-roll music but for some other plays, maybe the continuous news. Considering the large shares of the music sales, we can't ignore the online sales of music records. What's more, without further investigations, we can't tell whether the rock-and-roll music records is still popular while records of other forms declines. Before we get a more comprehensive of the rock-and-roll music market, we can't simply come to an conclusion that rock-and-roll music is recessive.

掐时间写的，只够写到第二个中间段，速度要提上来。

拒绝失学UID：3827856

Argument 74/147/148/149/156
Arg 74Girls college Switches to co-education

74) The president of Grove College has recommended that the college abandon its century-old tradition of all-female education and begin admitting men. Pointing to other all-female colleges that experienced an increase in applications after adopting coeducation, the president argues that coeducation would lead to a significant increase in applications and enrollment. However, the director of the alumnae association opposes the plan. Arguing that all-female education is essential to the very identity of the college, the director cites annual surveys of incoming students in which these students say that the school's all-female status was the primary reason they selected Grove. The director also points to a survey of Grove alumnae in which a majority of respondents strongly favored keeping the college all female.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.


Intro
Regarding the issue that whether Grove College should accept the recommendation of coeducation, both the reasons put forward by the president and the alumnae association are lacking in detail. That is to say, in order to make the proper decision, there still exist several questions to be answered. First, is the survey tenable? Second, will coeducation really increase the applications and enrollment? And the last one, except Grove alumnae, how do other people think about Grove College? As long as these questions are clarified accurately, we can consider the issue in a more proper way.

Ts1
To begin with, the first question to be answered is that whether the survey mentioned by the alumnae association is tenable enough. More accurately, we should determine that whether the all-female education is really the core identity of Grove College, thus being the cardinal point students care about. By citing the survey, the association already assumes that the survey is justifiable. However, we do not know the exact questions of the survey and whether the sample is representative. Possibly, the question will induce respondents to give the answers, or the number of respondents is not big enough, and so forth. If this is the case, then it is doubtable that students really care about the all-female education so much. Therefore, to corroborate their argument, the association should give the details of the survey.

心玉夕颜UID：3829123

61) The following appeared in an article in the Grandview Beacon.

For many years the city of Grandview has provided annual funding for the Grandview Symphony. Last year, however, private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent and attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled. The symphony has also announced an increase in ticket prices for next year. Given such developments, some city commissioners argue that the symphony can now be fully self-supporting, and they recommend that funding for the symphony be eliminated from next year's budget.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.


开头段：
In this argument, the author points out that some city commissioners recommend to eliminate funding for the symphony from next year's budget. To support this recommendation, the author demonstrates that private contributions to the symphony increased by 200 percent, attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series doubled last year, and announcement about an increase in ticket prices. However, there are still some questions needed to be answered whether this conclusion is substantiated as it stands.

中间段：
First of all, one important question which needs to be addressed is whether previous amounts of private contributions and attendance at the symphony's concerts-in-the-park series are considerable so that double of them should be enough for supporting the symphony. Since base data of private contributions and attendance is unknown, it is unsubstantial to claim that double of them can sufficiently support the symphony. For example, if the least amount of funding for run a symphony was 5 million dollars a year and the private contributions was 1 million and box office was 500,000 dollars, after doubling, the total amount was 3 million dollars which was much less than 5 million dollars. Therefore, the author simply jumps to the conclusion that the symphony can be fully self-supporting, yet this correlation may not be firmly established.

EvelynnnnnUID：3764728

109) The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful. The switch from rock-and-roll music to 24-hour news will attract older listeners and secure KNOW radio's future.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

According to the recommendation of general manager of KNOW radio station, this station should change its format from rock-and-role to continuous news. On the basis of more people over fifty years of age, the manager argues that news will attract more older listeners. Such conclusion may seem reasonable at first glance, however, it fails to entirely compelling, for it yields several unproven assumptions that need to be backed up with more concrete evidences and closer examination.

First of all, the manager falsely make such assumptions that  the decline of number of listeners is the result of increasing number of older people who do not like rock and roll music. Without clarifying with more valid evidences, the arguers fails to buttress his assumption. While it is not completely impossible for him to strength the argument. If the older people there like to listen to the radio station and younger man prefer to telephone or Internet to acquire new information and relax. This situation also may cause the decline of the radio station's listeners.

sofresh666888UID：3822782

Arg 21 Dr. Field anthropologist

10) Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia. Using an observation-centered approach to studying Tertian culture, he concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. Recently another anthropologist, Dr. Karp, visited the group of islands that includes Tertia and used the interview-centered method to study child-rearing practices. In the interviews that Dr. Karp conducted with children living in this group of islands, the children spent much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. Dr. Karp decided that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture must be invalid. Some anthropologists recommend that to obtain accurate information on Tertian child-rearing practices, future research on the subject should be conducted via the interview-centered method.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

Claim: In Tertia, Children are raised by the entire village instead of by their own biological parents.
Data: Using an observation-centered approach to studying Tertian culture, he concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents.
Warrant: Biological parents are not the main one who raise their children.
Evidence: Using the theory of observation-centered for Tertian.

Claim: Another study shows that children have more to say about their biological parents.
Data: Recently another anthropologist, Dr. Karp, visited the group of islands that includes Tertia and used the interview-centered method to study child-rearing practices. In the interviews that Dr. Karp conducted with children living in this group of islands, the children spent much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village.
Warrant: Children there are raised mainly by their parents.
Evidence: Another scholar’s research result.

Claim: Interview-centered method might be more accurate than the other method.  
Data: Dr. Karp decided that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture must be invalid. Some anthropologists recommend that to obtain accurate information on Tertian child-rearing practices, future research on the subject should be conducted via the interview-centered method.
Warrant: According to the different research result, Dr. Field’s observation-centered theory might not be accurate.  

Into
According to two scholars’ different research result, it is believed that from the case study of Terian children’s feeling towards their biological parents’ interview-centered method is more accurate. To support the claim, the author puts different research result comparison to show that observation-centered method is not a good way for doing social research. However, not only alternatives studying methods influence the result, other factors may affect the case study as well.

Middle paragraph
To begin with, two studies both have shown the children’s relation with their biological parents and their villagers. However, the first study is from the point of view of observing study while the second one is interview-centered methods. Terian children may have a different environment of growing up during their childhood, while observing and interviewing children might be a one-side way to study it. Other factor may affect the result of the study as well, such as children’s cognitive abilities, the traditions and culture of raising children and the villagers’ view of taking care other families children.   

错误代码：MI—Need more information
原句：However, the first study is from the point of view of observing study while the second one is interview-centered methods.
改句：However, the first study is an observing study while the second one is interview-centered methods.

Leona2017UID：3829393

Arg 17 Change to news and talk for radio station

17) The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.

To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

In this memorandum, the manager of WWAC radio station states that the owners have decided to change the current rock-music format in order to stop the listener numbers from declining, considering the growing population, the dropping(drop in) sales of recorded music and the popular news and talk (format of radio.) However, to evaluate the soundness of the argument, specific evidence is needed(we need to collect more evidence about these issues).

First of all, we need to know the past records of the listener numbers of this radio station. If the records present(s) that there is always an increase after each drop and the recently observed decrease in within the normal range, then there is no need to change the current format in such a harsh(hurried/rush) way. On the contrast, maybe it would be more suitable to maintain the rock-music format to keep the special style of the radio station.

Another important evidence we need(We also need to look into the reasons why…) is that the attitude of the listeners. Maybe they still like the rock music but since they have to go back to work or school after a holiday, the listeners don’t have enough spare time (to listen) as before, which lead to the drop (of the listeners). (If this is the case),It would be a better choice for the managers to do a survey and find out the real cause of the decline. It is possible that the(listeners) are still fond of the format and they just run out of time.

As for the conclusion of a limited interest in music based on the continuing decline in local sales of recorded music, we also need more evidence(need to collect more information about) to evaluate the argument correctly. For example, we need to know the number of sales in music online(这个不对。因为recorded music本身就包括线下和线上的，应该改成download/poor economy/concert等其他原因). Perhaps local residents prefer this new way of buying music since it is more convenient and cheaper. If there is a growing number of people who buy songs on the Internet, and even the rock music is one of the hottest genre, changing the current music style is apparently not a good choice.

Finally, in terms of the news and talk format, it may be more challenging to devote to this field as many other stations may have also made the same decision to change to this specific genre. As a result, the choices provided may outstrip the actual need and it is likely that WWAC would suffer a more painful decline in listener numbers.


用来补回之前的作业的~直接定时写了全文，没有按照要求批改啦