芸乔的个人作品集

芸乔UID：3596115

不知道写啥，先开个帖子，做个记录。

这是呼应王老师写作活动的练习贴。

芸乔UID：3596115

占楼备用。

芸乔UID：3596115

9月17-20日同主题练习 Argument Policy expansion
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mo ... amp;fromuid=3596115



51) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.



In this memorandum from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants, it is recommended that the margarine instead of butter should be applied to restaurants in other regions by virtue of the need of cost-saving. However, more questions must be addressed to better evaluate the author's recommendation; it may turn out this cost-saving change, namely replacing butter by margarine, should be extended in other regions of the country, although the opposite can be true as well.

To start with, we need to raise a series of questions. Firstly, even though we are informed that only two percent of customers have complained about the replacement, we need to know in what circumstances are the survey taken in order to confirm the survey's validity. Does the result come from the first day that the restaurant change the butter? People may tolerate the change first time, but may complain one month later when they realize that the restaurant will no longer offer butter. If complaints remain at a low rate after several months, the validity of the survey would be proved warranted. Secondly, even if the complaints are few during a long period, we need to question whether the rest of people remaining silent are actually happy with the change. For example, a survey about the customers’ satisfaction about the taste of Happy Pancake House restaurants should be taken. People may feel it unnecessary to complain, though they are unsatisfied. If 98 percent of customers are satisfied with the taste, the assumption would be reasonable; otherwise, it should be considered again.

Similarly, even if we acknowledge that customers offer butter do not complain when receiving margarine, whether or not they lack the ability to distinguish between the two needs a second look. It is possible that people realize the restaurant’s trick and feel disappointed about the restaurant and decide to go to Happy Pancake House no longer. Therefore, there is no need to complain. Yet, if the author can provide information to demonstrate that those people mix the butter and margarine, his/her conclusion will have weight.

Furthermore, granted that customers are satisfied about the change and even cannot distinguish between the butter and the margarine in the southwest United States, it remains unclear that people in the southeast and northeast will act the same. There is a possibility that people in other regions have good capability to distinguish the two. Therefore, we need to ask about the customers’ preferences about the two before adopting a new approach to other regions.

Finally, it is important to ask whether the seemingly cost-saving change will increase the profitability in the long run. Applying cheaper substitute may save prime cost in the beginning, but once people realize that they are consuming margarine in the name of butter, just as what I have mentioned above, they may suffer the feeling of being cheated and not come to HPH again. While the restaurant’s reputation being tarnished, they would lose customers and the profits will decline.

To summarize, although the author’s recommendation seems logically convincing, we should not make hasty decisions to extend the arrangement in other regions unless the questions raised above are satisfactorily answered.