Argument91求点评

lovehebeUID：3609167

第一篇Argument练习，写了40分钟，求狠批！
题目：Three years ago, because of flooding at the Western Palean Wildlife Preserve, 100 lions and 100 western gazelles were moved to the East Palean Preserve, an area that is home to most of the same species that are found in the western preserve, though in larger numbers, and to the eastern gazelle, a close relative of the western gazelle. The only difference in climate is that the eastern preserve typically has slightly less rainfall. Unfortunately, after three years in the eastern preserve, the imported western gazelle population has been virtually eliminated. Since the slight reduction in rainfall cannot be the cause of the virtual elimination of western gazelle, their disappearance must have been caused by the larger number of predators in the eastern preserve.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
作文：This argument concludes that the elimination of western gazelle in the eastern preserve should be attributed to the large amount of predators. To justify this statement, the author points out that the eastern preserve is the habitat of a large number of same species as western preserve, and the only climate difference is amount of rainfall. However, without further evidence provided, it is too hasty to get the conclusion merely based on the evidences cited by the author.

The foremost evidence needed to evaluate the argument is that the other differences between western and eastern preserve besides the distinction of climate. Even though few difference exists concerning the climate, there is no evidence shows that the other conditions are also similar. Perhaps the western gazelles feed on some specific vegetation, which could not survive in the eastern preserve due to the reduction of rainfall or some other reasons. Hence the extinction may be caused by the lack of food according to this possible presumption. Therefore, more details about the other differences are needed, such as whether eastern preserve has more natural disasters, whether the vegetation is different, and so on.

Furthermore, to justify his or her conclusion, the author still need to provide the evidence that there is no causal relationship between the slight reduction in rainfall and the extinction of the western gazelle. It is true that the eastern gazelles, the western gazelles' close relative, could live in the environment with less rainfall, but it is unreasonable to assume that the reduction of rainfall has no influence on the western gazelles. It is entirely possible that the western gazelles are particularly sensitive to the amount of rainfall, a slight change will cause a lot of harm to them. Or maybe the slight reduction of rainfall could induce the spread of some diseases, which is specially lethal to the western gazelle.

Even if the reduction of rainfall could be excluded as the reason, the author still could not simply attribute this disappearance to the large number of predators. There are many other possible explanations the author does not refer to in the argument. For instance, since there are already a large number of eastern gazelles in the eastern preserve, it is likely that the competition exists between eastern gazelles and western gazelles. Unfortunately, the western gazelles may fail the competition and could not get enough food and habitat, they finally disappeared three years later. Accordingly, more evidence is need to prove that the other explanations are impossible and the large number of predators is the only reason.

In summary, the argument is totally unpersuasive based merely on the evidence the author provided. To strength it, the author must provide clear evidence that the reduction of rainfall would not influence the western gazelles, as well as there is no other possibility besides the large number of predators. To better assess the argument, a detailed comparison between eastern and western preserves, concerning other aspects besides climate is also required.

lovehebeUID：3609167

而且在考场30分钟肯定写不了这么多，有哪些是可以去掉的吗？