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------题目------
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
'Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.'
------正文------
The conclusion proves to be unconvincing in that the speaker lacks evidence in both the accurateness of the decreasing of the deer and the possibility of other alternative factors contributing to the assumptive reason for the arctic deer's population decline.
To begin with, one problem with the assumption that the number of the deer has declined is based on local hunters reports which show little statistic evidence of the population of the past and the present, and how about the declining rate. Moreover, we are not informed how the hunters draw to this assumption. It is entirely possible that the hunters might not be able to find those deer due to the creature are likely to avoid being discovered by hunters or perhaps they migrate to where else suitable to live. As a result, the number of deer may not decline. Without providing more reliable evidence of the declining, I cannot be convinced that there is the matter.
Even assuming that the arctic deer are decreasing, another problem would be that the overlapping of the recent global warming and the declining has a causal relationship. The speaker mentions that the deer live in an exclusive area with a proper temperature style. However, no more evidence shows that to extent to which the global warming has become and whether it has affected the area in which the deer are accustomed and the ice among islands has accordingly melted. The more such evidence, the more reliable the argument is. Moreover, even presuming that the ice has melted, common sense informs us that wild animals are usually to be so adaptive to the environmental surroundings that the deer might be likely to alter their age-old patterns according to the change circumstances. The unfairly asset of the cause-effect relation is dubious at best.
Last but not least, there may to other possible reasons for the assumed decline of deer instead of migration problem. In the likelihood, the hunters are totally probable to be responsible for the declining, for that is their occupation to gain the hide and venison. Also it is possible that the deer might be eaten by their natural enemy like artic wolves or bears. Or perhaps, the graze plants are scant for feeding the deer due to climate changes. In short, the speaker ignores all the other possibilities which might result in the declining.
In conclusion, the conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the argument proponent must provide clear evidence that the deer is apparently decreasing. To better assess the argument, I would need better evidence that the global warming has directly caused the decline—perhaps through detailed statistical studies or reliable surveys of deer flocks. |
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