新G，argument25，第一次练习，求拍~
题目：The following was written as a part of anapplication for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be atremendously profitable enterprise. Currently,the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, wouldhave the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe:over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians livein Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,'which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwidestudy indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year onjazz entertainment."
Write a response in which you discuss whatspecific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how theevidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
提纲：
1、profit问题：盈利不能得到保证。市场好，但是赚钱不但与好的市场有关，而且和好的经营管理有关，因此断然认为会产生利润，是不可取的。
2、作者认为喜欢jazz音乐的人越来越多，断然认为这些人将来会去a Jazz music club。实际上听jazz乐的方式很多，未必是新开的爵士俱乐部的消费者，同时他们在爵士乐上的消费未必包含了去爵士俱乐部的费用。
3、外推+全国性研究：去年形势无法延续到将来，全国研究不带表本地情况。
The arguer claims that a jazz club in Monroe would be atremendous profitable venture. To substantiate the claim, the author points outthat Monroe hasno other jazz clubs and that jazz music is extremely popular with the residentsthere. Careful examination of its supporting evidence and assumptions, however,reveals that it omits several substantial concerns that should be addressed tojustify the argument.
A threshold assumption author based on isthat a jazz club would be profitable. This assumption is unwarranted because,other than a good market, there are a series of reasons that contribute to theprofitability of the jazz club. For instance, the management, the location, thecost of the club, and so on would affect the club’s profitability. So withoutruling out these and other reasons, only by claiming there is a good market forjazz music, the author could not confidently concludes the jazz club would beprofitable.
Also, the author indicated that because somany residents like jazz music, they would certainly go to the proposed jazzclub. However, it is entirely possible that considerable proportion of peoplefond of jazz music would choose lots of other ways of jazz entertainment, suchas listening to jazz CD, or holding small family jazz concerts. The authorprovides no evidence that the jazz likers, like the radio listeners, would beinterested in going to the jazz club. For this matter, the jazz radio might bea strong competitor of the C-Note jazz club.
The citation that in last summer over100,000 people attended Monroe'sannual jazz festival could not lend significant support to the argument. Thatis because residents’ interest in music has not to remains the same overextended periods of time. It is possible that classical music, pop music, androck music began to captivate more and more attention of Monroe residents from last summer on.
Nor did the nationwide study which indicatedthat the average jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.The argument fails to show whether the nationwide survey contains the Monoreresidents and whether the study result is equal to that in Monore. The Monoreresidents might be very special and the result of nationwide study might hardlybe representative of Monore.
Finally, even the Monore jazz fan spendsconsiderably much money on jazz entertainment, it does not follow that thesefans would expend those money to jazz club, also because they could choose manyother ways to enjoy jazz music.
In summary, the loan application’s argumentis untenable. To bolster it the author would have to provide more persuasiveevidences. For example, the author might have to provide the statistics whichcould show how much proportion of residents would go to jazz club instead oflistening jazz radio if given the opportunities. And the author should have toinvestigate whether the interest of jazz music would last, or how long it wouldlast. 求高人指点呀，求高人~~~ 牛人们，给点指点呀~~~~~~
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