第一篇Argue 求拍 不限时
rt，总是对写作指导很困惑，而且语言逻辑方面自己也很混乱，不管怎样，先写了一篇，求大家猛拍！The prediction of the group of city developers of Monroe that a new jazz music club would be quite profitable seems to be convincing at the first glance, as Monroe possesses nearly all requirements such as location, customer base and musicians necessary to the success of a jazz club. However, after taking a close examination of all the facts and reasons, lack of some important information would determine the validity of the prediction.
At first, the developers assume that since the nearest jazz club is more than 60 miles away from Monroe, there will be a local market to the new one in Monroe. Nevertheless, the attraction of the nearest jazz club may lie in the various choices of the shopping malls, restaurants and cinemas nearby. Thus, most people attending the nearest Jazz club show less interests in itself than commercial conveniences around it. So do the developers ever choose a site in Monroe and consider about the relevant commercial services nearby?
Secondly, last summer's success of Monroe's jazz festival could not be accounted for prediction of the potential achievement of the new jazz club. As just according to only one year's condition, the time scale seems too short to foresee the same success would happen in the following years. Maybe the novelty of the first year's festival
or the extremely fair weather is the real drive for people to come. However, no one could guarantee the following years' weather would be as suitable as last year. Moreover, since people have tasted the jazz festival already, they may be reluctant to waste time and money any more to go there twice. Besides, although the number of 100,000 seems to be huge, how much percentage of them would be willing to attend the jazz club?
Is this fraction large enough to help the club to make profit?
Thirdly, the existence of famous jazz musicians and popularity of radio program named "Jazz Nightly" are still not the powerful causes leading to the prediction that jazz club would be profitable. On the one hand, it is possible that some musicians are so old that they can only stay in seniors' home without extra energy to perform on stage. And maybe others preferring to live in Monroe just want to enjoy the tranquility and escape any performances. On the other hand, many residents listen to "Jazz Nightly" may just because Monroe is a place with too many mountains which prevent them to receiving any other programs consequently. And others may have no choice but to listen to it because other programs are even more boring when compared with "Jazz Nightly". So the developers must figure out the answers to the questions that whether people are just expecting the performances of those famous musicians discussed above in the new jazz club instead of other musicians and how many of the listeners of the" Jazz Nightly" would be the loyalty adherents of Jazz to eventually join the new club.
Finally, the nationwide study could not represent the local condition. How many local residents are jazz fans and would attend the club regularly? And how much of the expenditure of the total jazz entertainment would be spent in jazz club? In order to better confirm the prediction, the developers need to consider about these questions.
Altogether, the developers must do more specific research about the factors affecting the jazz club's final profit such as the amount of potential customers, their planning expenditures on jazz club and their expectations of the showers in order to succeed. 1# xllz49
题目是：
The following was written by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
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