argument100 jazz club in Monroe 题设为寻找假设
小弟前天写的一篇，希望大家可以帮我看看，有什么需要改进的地方？先谢过各位了。A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendouslyprofitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe;thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazzin Monroe: over 100,000 people attendedMonroe's jazz festival last summer, severalwell-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally,a nationwide studyindicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazzentertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
instruction:
write a response in which you discuss thestated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends onthese assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if theassumptions prove unwarranted.
正文：
In this argument, the speakerpredicts a jazz music club in Monroe (M) would be a huge profitable enterprise.To justify this prediction, the speaker points out that there is no jazz musicclub in M. Furthermore, he also cites various other evidence to demonstratethat jazz music is popular in M. However, careful scrutiny of author’s evidencereveals that it lends no credible support to author’s conclusion.
To begin with, the authorunfairly assumes that the result of national survey that jazz fan costs $1000per year fits the situation in M. Yet the author offers no evidence tosubstantiate this assumption. It is entirely possible that the economic is lessdeveloped in M, citizens in M do not have so much money to spend on jazz music.If so, the nationwide survey does not in accordance with local situation, thus,provide limited evidence to substantiate its assumption.
Even assuming the localeconomic situation is in accordance with national survey, the author’sconclusion relies on another unwarranted assumption which is jazz music ispopular in M. The author cites evidence that last year the jazz musicalfestival attracted more than one hundred thousand visitors. Nevertheless, noevidence proofs these visitors were local residents, perhaps they were jazzmusic fans came from different places other than M. If so, the author cannotsubstantiate that people in M like jazz music. Moreover, some famous jazz musicianslive in M does not indicate that jazz is popular in M. Perhaps these musiciansjust enjoy the good living environment in M. In addition, the author fails toconsider other possibilities that caused ratio program, “jazz nightly” tobecome the highest rated program in M. For example, maybe M only has one rationprogram so listeners do not have other choices. Therefore, without ruling outthese possibilities, the author cannot draw a conclusion that jazz music ispopular in M.
Even if jazz music waspopular, the author’s assumption that jazz music club in M would have the localmarket all itself is unwarranted. The nearest jazz club is 60 miles away doesnot necessarily indicate that running a local jazz musical club will attractlots of consumers. Since whether a jazz club would attracted many customers ornot depends on its service quality, costs. If all these aspects of local jazzclub cannot better than other jazz club, local jazz fans would prefer going toother jazz music club rather than local jazz music club.
To sum up, if the authorcannot substantiate these assumption mentioned above, he cannot draws aconclusion that running a jazz music club in M would be a huge profitableenterpraise.
补一个中文提纲：
1. 作者错误假设国家范围的调查结果可以适用于M。
2.即使可以适用于M，仍然不行，因为在M，jazz music有可能不popular。
3.即使popular，仍然不行，因为在M开个jazz club有可能不获利
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