【GRE作文互助组】蘅子的作业帖---argument提纲
开始先练起来！ 9月21日 7/98/99；24/26/287 The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.
"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store（建议）. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects.（与后面取消童书相矛盾；这句本身有什么可以驳斥的？） Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers（关键：证据呢？）. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten（百分比降低不见得人数减少；与童书需求/销量有直接关系吗？；其他可能性？人口基数增大，老龄化？；之前的童书销售业绩占总销售业绩多少？）. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café（具有可比性吗？；给人follow suit的印象）."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
1.初读题标记、想法见题目，整体感觉挺乱的=》root flaws？有条理的组织起来？instructions?
2.逻辑链分析：
论点：1.dscontining children's book section=>2.open cafe...=>attract customers(assumption)
论据：1.decline in the percentage of the population under age ten=>children's section not necessary?；2. Regal Books opened its own cafe=>better compete?
方法反思：论据分开，从最有思路的入手；每条论据扣题“问问题”；思路尽量小步，避免跳跃性；题问题然后想一个反例就够了
根据5.5回忆的提纲：
论点：1.We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store
2.opening the café would attract more customers
论据：1.Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects.
2.Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten。
3.Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café
提纲：
1. 论据3中类比需要解决的问题：
A对方开了咖啡店结果怎样？是否吸引了更多顾客？这些顾客买书吗？==》转接B，即使R开咖啡店成功不代表M也能成功
B可比性=>思考Regal 为什么要开咖啡店？=>其他原因：书籍销量低？=》M是否适合开咖啡店？结合论据1，老顾客是否接受？要牺牲儿童区有悖于书店藏书广泛的原则。
2.论据2中问题：
A儿童百分比下降是否就代表绝对数量减少？==》转B，即使绝对数量减少
B是否能推出童书不再受欢迎？进而销量减少？例如增加教育投入；地区传统差异性
3.论据1中的问题：（接1中略述，或直接省略）
老顾客对开咖啡店的态度如何？
总结：作者没有考虑M店的具体特点和顾客的意见。
24 A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
论点： Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
论据：
1.A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches.The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants.
2.Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives.
3.At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so.
提纲：
1.论据1研究例子，相关不等于因果。问题一：二十年间其他条件是否发生改变？如可能被其他原因影响，如生活条件提高、居住环境改善、医疗卫生条件改善、压力降低等。问题二：实验设计科学与否？跟阿司匹林的类比，aspirin止痛的有效性是经过严格医学检验的，S只是止痛家族中的一种，其效用有待科学检验。如果用两组被试，一组摄入，一组不摄入，比较头痛的发病率和严重程度会更有说服力。另外实验没有说明S的用量与头痛严重程度的关系，摄入多少为最佳，是否有副作用（如果这些问题不解决，人们很难轻易相信S对身体有好处而选择增加S摄入量）？
2.论据2问题，M居民食物摄入S的量是否足够？再增加摄入是否会产生饱和？preservatives本身能增加S摄入两吗（谁吃保鲜剂啊。。。）？
3.作为食品添加剂，问题一：能实现吗，如成本问题？问题二：作为食品添加剂不会改变S属性而降低其对头痛的效果吗？问题三：作为添加剂有副作用吗？（+中立客观性）
整体感觉：分论据有些不清楚；关于科学研究的点有些薄弱和杂乱；5.5中给出的提纲也有些散乱啊，跟自己的思路有些是重合的，但全文的逻辑连贯性还有待提高。 本帖最后由 蘅子 于 2012-9-22 17:02 编辑
9月22日 33；34/58/94；41/123/125（补前）
33 The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
"Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase—and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
论点：一预测一建议
1）Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase—and may decline slightly.
2）construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.
论据：
1）Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy.
2）At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago.
3）Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating.
4）Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs...
提纲：
核心问题：节能意识、措施和设备是否带来（电）能源需求/消耗减少。
开头让步：或许真的不需要建立新发电厂，但要结合整体耗能趋势和节能趋势才能得出合理结论。
1）反论据1：
假设一：SURVEY的有效性，如社会赞许效应、样本大小代表性、问题设计笼统与精细etc=》建议给出调查的具体细节
假设二：有节能意向就代表有实际节能行动，是否方便节能、设备情况、投入节能的性价比etc=》建议更全面的调查节能行为
2）反论据2：接1）有节能意识促进节能产品的选用=》生产商有卖的=》貌似合理
假设一：节能产品真的节能，且是大大节能=》厂商是否中立，或许只是广告策略；
假设二：冰箱、空调之类，是主要耗电设备，其他生活耗电不大，且没有新品种的电器加入家用耗电队伍：比如说这么多年来电器产品越来越丰富，如空调比早先的电扇就耗电大的多，洗碗机、榨汁机、咖啡机等这些家用电器相比十年前已经成为日常家庭必备电器了，这样耗电量从长期看会随着家用电器品种的增加而增加。（这点写的很畅快）
假设三：大多数人们有能力且愿意替换节能产品=》购买产品受很多因素影响：如价钱负担的起吗，外观，售后，促销策略，是否能方便的买到等，大件家用产品是否愿意仅为节能一点更换
小总结：电器的节能性和用电总量并没有必然联系。（一和三可以考虑合并）
3）反论据3：家庭取暖能有效降低能源需求
假设一：能广泛普及=》性价比、老房子？
假设二：没有其他新设施、产业需要消耗能源（同2.2）home heating只是能源消耗的一方面（统一到4.2）
4）反论据4：假设一：20年老电厂能继续安全、高效运转=》科技提高环保性、能源利用率、安全系数
假设二：【5.5居民使用家电的范围不会扩大，即2.2】不会有新的用电项目=》科技发展整体趋势用电处越来越多，如电动汽车，娱乐场所【5.5中短期内，当地的经济发展水平、人口结构、居民的用电方式同过去20年相比不会发生大变化，比如大量移民、石油天然气短缺、工业用电需求增加】
总结：文章只强调了节能的可能性，缺乏具体的可行性和实施情况，另外忽略了可能产生的新耗能点。所以用电量不变或下降的结论不可靠，进而否定新电厂是草率的。
整体感觉：第一印象看论证挺严密，细挖发现真的很多漏洞，接下来就是论点选择和组织问题了。
34 The vice president of human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company's president.
"In an effort to improve our employees' productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees' Internet use from their workstations. Employees who use the Internet from their workstations need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities, such as shopping or playing games. By installing software to detect employees' Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic at Climpson, and improve our overall profits."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
论点：
1）建议In an effort to improve our employees' productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees' Internet use from their workstations.
2）推测 By installing software to detect employees' Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic at Climpson, and improve our overall profits."
论据：
1）Employees who use the Internet from their workstations need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities, such as shopping or playing games.
2）By installing software to detect employees' Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic at Climpson, and improve our overall profits."
核心问题：上网监控与提高生产率/效益之间有直接关系吗？
提纲:
1）反论据1：假设一：公司存在上班干私事的现象，而且这一现象影响到员工正常工作（工作中穿插娱乐，放松后更有利于高效工作）；【5.5假设二：要分清员工在上班期间使用互联网到底是工作还是干私事是很容易的事情。】
2）反论据2：【5.5假设一：合法性，不侵犯员工隐私】假设二：安装软件性价比合适：1.如果相比员工上班干私活的损失，这个软件非常贵，就划不来了；或者是说本来用电脑办公的员工并不多呢？2.能有效起到防御作用，上有政策下有对策，员工不会翻墙、黑客吗？【5.5】假设三：采取此措施不会破坏员工对企业的归属感和信任感。如果员工因为不被信任感产生抵触情绪，对公司效益也是不利的。提高员工满意度wholeheartedly devoted to a company才是提高生产率的王道。
3）反结论：【5.5没有其他更好的方法，员工教育、改善业绩考核、增强员工荣誉感、在公司内部开展更丰富有趣的娱乐活动】
感觉：论点跟论据有些杂糅，怎么分离，驳斥中间的逻辑链条。
41 The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
论点：
1）推测These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result.
2）建议Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."
论据：
1）A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent.
2）Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent.
逻辑链条：1十年间带头盔的增加但事故也增加=》2大胆冒险=》3教育而非安全帽
核心：安全帽佩戴是否是造成事故数量增多的原因【分解：事故增加的其他原因，头盔在其中的角色】
提纲：
首段：虽然安全教育可能起作用，但从数据推导出头盔不如教育重要这点值得讨论。除此作者的理解头盔导致人们更多冒险行为，进而导致更多事故也是有悖常理。
假设一：安全帽增多造成了人们掉以轻心，因而事故增多=》1安全帽增多完全可能推出大家更小心谨慎了，而不是大胆；2事故数量增加就代表问题比以前严重（比较事故率）
假设二：没有其他因素引起事故增加=》人口增长、骑自行车的人增多、机动车增加、道路拥堵、安全帽的质量、交通法规不完善、自行车的用途改变（交通工具到健身娱乐）等
假设三：出事故的人中戴头盔与不带头盔的比率怎样
结尾：教育骑车人能有效防止严重事故=》其他因素呢？如交通法规、道路建设、机动车管理、交通管理、机动车司机教育等
感觉：杂乱，缺系统反驳；反包括两部分：反论据+反链条连接处
本帖最后由 蘅子 于 2012-9-24 17:22 编辑
48 The following appeared in a magazine article about planning for retirement.
"Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire, because it has spectacular natural beauty and a consistent climate. Another advantage is that housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns. Moreover, Clearview's mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services. And best of all, retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
论点：Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire
论据：
1）it has spectacular natural beauty and a consistent climate.
2）Another advantage is that housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns.
3）Moreover, Clearview's mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services.
4）And best of all, retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average."
核心：作者提供的优势可靠吗？是否是retiree 最看重的？
反1：反宜居：要进一步信息证明气候宜人适合居住：natural beauty 有很多种，是否适合居住是另一回事。比如尼亚加拉大瀑布很spectacular长年居住于此会受不了水汽、噪声、昆虫、交通etc不便的。consistent climate？cold, hot, warm, dry, wet?人人的喜好也是不同的。
反2：反省钱：1/housing costs have fallen does not necessarily mean it is affordable for retirees; it still could be rather expensive compare to other areas. =>真便宜也要知道其他情况才能做权衡，condition of the house, whether fully facilitated, community atmosphere, transportation, shopping malls in the neighborhood etc. 2/税收低多少？政策是否能持续？=》3/当地的消费水平也是要考虑的重要因素
反3：反政策：承诺的现实可行性，具体措施，经费，实施的时间=》真正落到实处
反4：医生的数量只是医疗水平的一个小方面。医疗消费、医生水平、医院设备等都要考虑。
总：要综合考虑多因素，气候、消费水平、公共设施、交通便利、地区氛围等。
感觉：论点论据很清晰，但怎样反驳有力有条理比较难。
77 The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues—is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
论点：
Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues—is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
论据：
1) Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel.
2) During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent.
3) the best way to improve Hopewell's economy
核心：可比性和关联性
反2)：关联性：没有足够证据说明OV的经济提高是因为修建了高尔夫球场和酒店。1/旅游发展完全可能因为其他原因，比如扩大宣传；风光文化独特；政府扶持旅游政策；这两年经济形势比较好，人们有闲钱旅游了等；2/新的商业也可能是因为这些原因啊，政府扶持，资源便捷等；3/税收增加30%也可能是得益于以上多方面的城市建设和发展，也可能是本身税收力度加大=》所以，缺乏证据说明经济税收提高与修建了高尔夫球场和酒店的直接关系。=》转反1，即使OV得益于高尔夫球场和酒店，但H能直接学习吗？
反1)：可比性：缺乏说明H也能直接效仿OV并获益的证据。即使OV成功，H和OV未必具有可比性，学习OV建设未必能取得相同效果。1/财力；2/自然条件是否适合建高尔夫和酒店，发展旅游；3/居民是否接受发展旅游业
反结尾：提高经济最好的选择？吸引外资扩大企业，发展适合当地的动植物养殖等，发展特色经济
结尾发散：要结合自身特点全面看问题，不能急于模仿=》作者的建议不靠谱
The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit. To address these problems, Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
论点：
1）建议Humana University will begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni.
2）预测We predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total enrollment and solve its budget problems."
论据：
1）Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby Omni University increased by 50 percent.
2）During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet.
3）In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings has increased along with our budget deficit.
核心：1可比性，2关联性：开网络课程与节省开支间是否存在其他可能，3其他因素
反1：50%vague，the year before last year 100, last year 150, on campus degree 2000网络学院具体增加了多少，与在校学院比例如何=》O并没有从开办网络课程增加很多生源【弱】
反2：接1，如果网络授课人数绝对值少？其他可能=》生源不好，在校人数减少；前年进行大规模修缮【强】
反3：enrollment failed to grow其他可能：生源本身有限，管理，教学质量，学费，设施；& defecit扩建，校友捐赠减少等问题【强】
反4：可比性：HU办学特色，是否有财力物力开拓网络课程并保证教学质量，是否会影响校园教学。【强】
结尾散：要结合自身特色，其他方法？
113/126/127/161 bm180
(14)
The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.
"Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
论点：Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course."
论据：2+3证明1
1）Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity.
2）One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year.
3）Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday.
4）Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter.
核心：例子的可信度，是否能证明论点：快读课程与提高生产力间的关系；可比性
提纲：
反2）：个别表现突出且能代表全体学员1/两小时500页是很快的速度，但读的什么材料，理解多少不知道；2/快速升职跟阅读有直接关系：勤奋、业绩、领导力等；3/（让）全体学员水平怎样【强】+反3）：读的快且能理解，是所有岗位都需要大量阅读的工作吗？=》全员参加，资金、必要性，e.g.cleaner，driver，接4
反4）：假设：收益远远大于投入，但并没有证据说明收益如何
1/即使1）中提到其他企业获益，并没有说名具体收益与支出的比例；
2/即使他人公司收益大，能否代表本公司也能如此获益呢？
3/如果A是个大公司拥有上万员工，每人500刀，全员参加培训将是个庞大的支出，而这个投入能带来多少利益文中却没有有力证据证明。
4/而课程附带的seminar和newsletter很可能只是促销方式，而并没有实际内容【强】
整体感觉：小点有很多，都说到是否会损害深入呢？比如反4）中的一堆。怎样组织才能清晰重点突出=》逻辑链容易推出，但充分论述？
太用功了 顶一个！
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