第一篇argument 求拍！
(7)The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In this argument, the recommendation that Monarch Books open a cafe in its store looks well-considered with evidences. However, we may cast doubt on this recommendation after further consideration. were we swept all these questions listed below , could all of us known this recommendation is warranted or unwarranted.
The recommendation cited that recent national census had indicated a significant decline in the percentage in the population under age ten. Obviously, It is assumed that children's books will become less popular and inevitably it will be taken place by cafe shop. But whether this assumption is reliable depends largely on whether the so-called national census is fit for local circumstance. We can not fail to take the situation that local population under ten age was not keep pace with whole country into account. While national population of children is decreasing, local children population is in a rapid increasing, and it is not reasonable to discontinuing children's book section based merely on national investigation. Besides, the decline of percentage of children's nationwide population is not equal to children's absolute number, since it could result from the incline of percentage of old people or other reasons. The recommendation in this sense turns out to be limited and largely veiled. Thereby an urgent in-depth investigation is in great needed.
Granted that actual absolute number of children really decreases, we still can not distinguish whether it would make money by opening a cafe shop to substitute for children's book selection. The success of a company depends not only on incomes but also on costs. We may not deny the coming fact that cafe shop would attract more customers to come here wondering in the books' ocean and having a leisure time, on one hand. on the other, there are no survey shows how much on earth it would cost, perhaps the decorating fee and salaries of cafe shop staffs could be a large amount of cost comparing to income it brings. Taking all these factors into accounts, the recommendation should be constructed with more convincing evidences.
Beyond that, the arguer claims that open a cafe would better compete with Regal Books which had opened its own cafe, but does these two companies have something in common? since this argument has not provided with more details about Regal Books, comparison between Regal Books and Monarch Books is not exist, and target market plays an important role in explaining it. As for Regal Books, it may focus on a certain groups of people, say white-collars, by comparing with Monarch Books whose target market is all kinds of people; Besides, the argument fails to show newly-opened cafe of Regal's profits, so it is difficult to forecast the risk of opening a cafe shop.
In a nutshell, we highly recommended another in-depth investigation to help the arguer better know these problems, and only in this way can we obtain more accurate data to help us decide whether to open cafe and get more profits.
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