【argument60求指教】
【题目】"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
【内容】
There is no doubt that the heating oil will be increasingly demanded when the temperatures below normal for a long time, but for what author argues leaves many other factors out. It is obvious that weather pattern and rising population are linked to heating oil, nevertheless, the argument still lacks of scientific assumption and logical expression
Mentioned in this memo is a fact that many residents regard heating oil as major fuel while winter coming. Obviously, the statement ignores something playing a similar role with heating oil. As is known to all, there are variety kinds of combustible materials could replace the oil for heating along with the development of technology. For instance, shale gas, solar energy and biogas all have been used for generating heat. Data shows that, in the United State, the shale gas output reached more than one hundred billion cubic meters through 2010. The survey pays only attention to the oil but little to the new energy. Otherwise, the new substitute is cheaper and more efficient compared to oil.
Additionally, the author implies that the anomalous weather will continue for more than one year based on the assumption of the forecaster. As a matter of fact, prediction may not be a fact. Although this district has experienced 3 months with lower temperature, we are unable to conclude that it will last several years. Stepping into an age of high technology, we still need to improve our technique for predicting accurately. For strengthening his/her argument, the author would benefit from the conclusion of forecasters to recommend investment in Consolidated Industries. If the weather returns to normal, what investor paid for the heating oil will be all in vain. Weather could make such a drastic change that nobody can catch it easily.
In the author’s opinion, the increased consumption resulted from many new homes being built. Despite such incensement may well affect the oil demanding, newly-built houses also have other choice for heating instead of the oil. Not all of them will choose the traditional fuel. On the other hand, this argument merely states the following construction without talking about the previous. There will be some connections between the former and later. Firstly, a new house is constructed after the old was pulled down. Apart from this, all family members perhaps move to the new house but leave the old empty. No matter what kind of situation, construction will not put any effect on the oil demanding.
In sum, the reasons cited in the writing carry little conviction so that people could not invest the unpredictable field. The author concerns neither the new energy nor the shortage of our forecasting techniques. Besides, the increasing houses do not bring about the demanding change of heating oil.
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