Take seat first.
seat taken seat takenhttps://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=502399&extra=page%3D1
还是太慢了,而且打了些错误
[ 本帖最后由 zqzned 于 2006-7-27 15:30 编辑 ] 占个座，先！
辛苦斑竹，3Q 中文提纲：
1.北极不一定变暖了
2.即使北极变暖，并也不一定化
3.鹿不一定变少了
4.即使鹿变少，也不一定是由于天气变暖的缘故。
https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=502636&extra=page%3D2
谢谢来拍。
[ 本帖最后由 july6th 于 2006-7-27 21:56 编辑 ] 占！ https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=502676&highlight=
还有三天就考，大家多提意见！
[ 本帖最后由 helenlhh 于 2006-7-28 11:25 编辑 ] 占座 1.北极鹿数量的下降不一定是不能遵循古老迁徙习惯的结果
2.全球气候变暖和北极鹿数量下降没有必然的因果联系
3.当地猎人采访报告的可信度值得怀疑
my writing:
https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=502277&extra=page%3D1 占座 呵呵 又晚了 同主题一直办的很不错，可惜明天就要考了，来不及继续写了，bless所有正在奋斗的gter们 坑多萝卜少啊. 从Encarata里找了些资料，能帮助大家在举反例时更具体点。未必全对，但改一下后糊弄ETS还是不错：）
1. 猎人的报告
（1）真实性：猎人的集体阴谋。。想减少针对他们的限制。In 1900, Congress passed the Lacey Act, which put a damper on commercial market hunting by regulating the interstate shipment of game. Other federal and state laws were passed in subsequent years, establishing hunting seasons, limiting the daily allowable kill of game per hunter, outlawing unfair and inhumane hunting methods, and making it illegal to hunt species in danger of becoming extinct.
（2）可信性
A：鹿被抓到动物保护区去了，而猎人不知道。Keibul Lamjao National Park,It was created to protect the remaining population of the world's rarest deer, The park consists mainly of areas of floating humus, covered with reeds and grasses and dissected by streams, which are the remnant of the swamps around Loktak Lake.
B：看错，误把其他物种当鹿（不是所有鹿都有horn的。。）Chevrotain, common name for the smallest of the ruminant animals, which possess some features intermediate between deer and swine.They are also often confused with musk deer because the upper canines of the male chevrotain are enlarged into tusks
（3）客观条件
argument的一个矛盾，如果冰都融化了，猎人怎么观察鹿的数量？他们不也无法island to island了么。。难道乘直身飞机啊-.-
2. 鹿减少的原因
（1）猎人自己杀的
A：猎狗（连狼都能补杀。。）Scottish Deerhound, breed of dog that originated in Scotland about the 16th century and was once widely used in the hunting of deer. In the United States hunting antlered animals with dogs is prohibited, but the deerhound was used to hunt other animals, including wolves and coyotes.
B：噪声In driving, or beating, a group of hunters moves through an area deliberately making noise and trying to frighten game animals in the direction of other hunters.
（2）天敌（虽未必对北极鹿构称威胁，但Encarta图片里的Puma和Coyotes都在雪地里出现）A：Pumas hunt elk, deer, and smaller mammals.
B：Coyotes also prey on unprotected sheep and occasionally on weakened deer.
（3）疾病A：Foot-and-Mouth Disease, also known as hoof-and-mouth disease, a highly infectious viral disease of animals with cloven hooves, such as cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and deer. （这就素著名的口蹄疫了）
B：Wasting Disease, a disease affecting free-ranging and captive deer and elk. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is one of a group of diseases known as transmissible.
3. 冰的融化
（1）永冻土In many places, however, permafrost (permanently frozen subsoil) restricts the downward drainage of meltwater from snow, and the water accumulates on the surface as shallow lakes, ponds, and marshes.
（2）平均温度，其实全球气候变暖最多不过几度，而北极平均温度不大于0。。怎么可能把通路给融掉呢。。某些地点温度如下：on the Greenland ice cap average midwinter temperatures are -33° C (-27° F), whereas adjacent coastal settlements, whose climates are moderated by the relatively warm ocean, typically have a mean temperature of -7° C (19° F) in the same period. The North Pole is not the coldest spot in the Arctic, because its climate is moderated by the ocean. Oymyakon, in northeastern Siberia, holds the record low temperature of -68° C (-90° F). The coldest recorded temperature for North America is -65° C (-85° F), at Snag, in Yukon Territory.
[ 本帖最后由 hydra35 于 2006-7-27 13:23 编辑 ] https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=502378&extra=page%3D1
Outline:
1. 攻击local hunters’ reports. 可能是鹿们为了逃避predators 和 hunters的捕捉而躲到更隐蔽的地方。
2. 攻击global warming造成的影响。可能温度小幅上升只融化了ice cover的边缘部分，对他们的迁徙并无影响。
3. 即使是减少了，可能是由别的原因造成的，如过度捕杀，plants受到污染而大量减少或是瘟疫蔓延。作者的结论过于片面。