标题: 【clover】106G Argument147 by 九天揽月 [打印本页] 作者: 九天揽月 时间: 2010-2-1 16:57:06 标题: 【clover】106G Argument147 by 九天揽月
Argument 147
2010-01-31
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
The argument is obviously over-optimistic by reasoning that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase just based on a survey. First, the reliability and generalizability of the survey are questionable. In addition, the argument assumes a causal correlation relying on insufficient factors. The argument also fails to examine alternative explanations. I will discuss each of these facets in turn.
To assure the results of the survey, one must consider the situation in which the survey was conducted. The argument doesn't provide any details about the employees, the respondents or the field of survey. If the questions were pre-informed or if the investigation was self report, or if the survey was limited to a few players, the results might be unreliable. Therefore, the most important features in a video game might not be lifelike graphics but other characteristics, such as the plots of the games or anything else.
Even if the survey results are acceptable, we can't be convinced that only the introduction of such games with an advertisement will reverse the sales. It is unreasonable that the argument didn't explain why the Whirlwind experienced two year declining. Perhaps the costs of the Whirlwind are too high that players prefer other games. Or the people 10 to 25 years old are not as crazy about games as expected, they are interested in other entertainments, such as doing sports, hence the evaluation that they may be the main group of playing games is unwarranted. Furthermore, the function of advertisement is no sure evidence of a sale rise. Regardless of the impact factors of the games, the poor management or other relevant
problems may play a part in the decline.
Apart from the reasons analyszed above, other factors that beyond control also exist. Perhaps the sales decrease is due to an economy recession, the games market has been curtailed, and then the reduction was inevitable. The government may enhance the limitation of video games, which is not impossible for the decrement. Unless the argument could exclude such possibilities, the prosperity of the Whirlwind video games is still obscure.
Overall, the reasoning of the sales raise in the argument seems logical at first sight, however, it has several flaws as discussed above. The argument could be improved by providing evidences explaining the reasons for the two-year decrease, the main group of players and the comprehensive factors of increasing sales.作者: taotaole 时间: 2010-2-1 22:31:58
The argument is obviously over-optimistic by reasoning that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase just based on a survey. First, the reliability and generalizability of the survey are questionable. In addition, the argument assumes a causal correlation relying on insufficient factors[指代不是很清哎]. The argument also fails to examine alternative explanations. I will discuss each of these facets in turn.
To assure the results of the survey, one must consider the situation in which the survey was conducted.[ assure 是使确信 然后我觉得有必要在从句上加上宾语 就是 assure sb of sth 否则指代不清 因为主句主语是 one 也比较模糊] The argument doesn't provide any details about the employees, the respondents or the field of survey. If the questions were pre-informed or if the investigation was self report, or if the survey was limited to a few players, the results might be unreliable. [很不错的]Therefore, the most important features in a video game might not be lifelike graphics but other characteristics, such as the plots of the games or anything else.
Even if the survey results are acceptable, we can't be convinced that only the introduction of such games with an advertisement will reverse the sales. It is unreasonable that the argument didn't explain why the Whirlwind experienced two year declining. Perhaps the costs of the Whirlwind [ 公司的价格？ 还是指代不清]are too high that players prefer other games[时态不对]. Or the people 10 to 25 years old are not as crazy about games as expected, they are interested in other entertainments, such as doing sports, hence the evaluation that they may be the main group of playing games is unwarranted. [ 这个想法很好，值得我学习】Furthermore, the function of advertisement is no sure evidence of a sale rise. Regardless of the impact factors of the games, the poor management or other relevant
problems may play a part in the decline.
Apart from the reasons analyszed above, other factors that beyond control also exist. Perhaps the sales decrease is due to an economy recession, the games market has been curtailed, and then the reduction was inevitable. The government may enhance the limitation of video games, [前面加个连接词 例如 again]which is not impossible for the decrement. [这句的时态有问题]Unless the argument could exclude such possibilities, the prosperity of the Whirlwind video games is still obscure[ 谓语单数？].
Overall, the reasoning of the sales raise in the argument seems logical at first sight, however, it has several flaws as discussed above. The argument could be improved by providing evidences explaining the reasons for the two-year decrease, the main group of players and the comprehensive factors of increasing sales.
我很欣赏你的结尾 很利落