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The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
'Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainville’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.'
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In the argument, the author suggests that Nature's Way should build the next new store in Plainsville. To support the assertion, the author cites several evidences to justify the assumption that people in Plainsville pay more attention to their health. At the first glance, the argument seems persuasive; however, careful consideration will reveal several fatal flaws.
In the first place, the author gratuitously assumes that Nature’s Way could be profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. No information about the number of similar health-related stores is given in the argument. Perhaps several years ago, there was no such store there, and Nature’s Way might get profits easily. However, if too many stores have been founded in Plainsville now, intense competition would make it difficult even impossible for Nature’s Way to be profitable. And the author says nothing about whether the products of Nature’s Way have any advantages than others, so people will choose those stores with lowest price and best service. Therefore, hasty decisions without any throughout survey on market conditions are risky.
In the second place, no evidence is provided to support the assumption that people in Plainsville are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. First, the reason for the high sales of running shoes and exercise clothing might rely on insufficiency of the supply of exercise-related products rather than people's concerns about healthy lives. Second, no detailed situation of health clubs is given in the argument. It is probable that there are only few health clubs. Although all of them are full, the total number of people who join the clubs is still small. Furthermore, the fact that the clubs nearly closed five years ago might illustrates that people pay little attention to healthy lives.
Last but not the least, the fact that schoolchildren are required to participate in health programs in an early age also cannot guarantee the profits of Nature’s Way in future. Because the “fitness for life” program is compulsory to children, if later on no such compulsory programs exist, it is doubtful that those children would do regular exercises voluntarily.
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To make it more persuasive, the author has to provide more evidence to support that people in Plainsville are highly concerned with leading healthy lives, and that the market condition is advantageous for Nature's Way.作者: xuedilang1998 时间: 2004-12-12 16:18:18