Argument20 决战830拍砖组 15日作业 同主题高频狂练,请兄弟们狂拍

caogenmanchiUID: 2127136

Argument 20
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
'The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.'

提纲：
1.        there is no evidence indicating whether the relation between the number of mopeds rentals and the accidents exists and how much the number of mopeds rentals affects that of the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.
2.        the arguer failed to take into account the comparability between the two islands.

In the argument, the arguer recommends that the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rentals in order to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians based on the experience of the neighboring island of Torseau. At the first glance, the argument is well-reasoned. However, I find that there are at least the following flaws in it after close examination.

Firstly, there is no evidence indicating whether the relation between the number of mopeds rentals and the accidents exists and how much the number of mopeds rentals affects that of the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. Given that perhaps there are other causes affecting the number of accidents such as the experiences of the riders and drivers, the tempers of them, etc., it is possible that the relation mentioned above does not exist in Balmer Island. Furthermore, suppose that the relation exists and the change of the number of mopeds rentals leads to the same change of that of the accidents, we have to identify the size of the effect. If the effect is not enough large, we may ignore it.

Secondly, the arguer failed to take into account the comparability between the two islands. Perhaps the circumstances of the two islands are so different that it is entirely wrong that we compare Balmer Island to Torseau Island although they are neighbors. If the absolute amount of the moped rentals in Torseau Island is far larger than that in Balmer Island, this may mean the limits on moped rentals in Torseau Island is effective to reduce the number of accidents, but the similar limits no t effective in Balmer Island. The difference of the experiences and the tempers of the riders and drivers can lead to the same thing as the absolute amount of the moped rentals.

In sum, the argument is not persuasive as it stands. We have to know more information on the causes of the accidents and the comparability between the two islands before a conclusion on what measures Balmer Island should take to reduce the number of the accidents.

跟昨天的是一个模式，写时还没看到lplx_1982和Zhizhi意见。其实不是两个理由，而是两类理由，包括至少三个理由。不过，既然大家都这么认为，那我就在形式上改改。不过今天还是先发上来再说。

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-16 at 11:39 ]

Felix_37UID: 2104070

最好还是改了先，段落出来了，思路感觉清晰一些。argu不就考思路么？

caogenmanchiUID: 2127136

昨天GTER维护把我的订阅列表给维丢了。还好找到了，呵呵！