题目
Argument190 The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.
"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."
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The arguer's suggestion to feature more modern music and include Richerts' music at Glenville Summer Concert series in order to increase attendance at the concerts suffers several serious flaws as the following.
First of all, the arguer is too opinionated to exclude the weather as the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases. Although many people still attended the concerts even in bad weather, the concept of 'many' is too vague for the actual data is not provided. For example, we do not know how many people on earth still purchased the tickets and how many percent the number of audiences declined for. If it is obvious that people coming to the concerts declined sharply when the whether is very bad, then it is very possible that the whether is one of the most important reasons for the phenomena. Thus, until strong evidence is provided, the weather factor cannot be excluded.
Secondly, there is no evidence to prove that the reason for the decline is the choice of music. The arguer fails to think whether and choice of music are the only two possible reasons for the decline, then he concludes the choice of music causes the decline after he excludes the whether reason. However, his precondition is totally wrong in fact. It is possible that over the past few years, many similar concerts were appeared with lots of propagandas and abundant styles, while Glenville Summer Concert series seldom changed their contents and styles, and also did not propagandize themselves. It is also possible that during recent years the living condition of Glenville residents was very poor, and they were even hard to feed themselves, then go to concerts was impossible and could not be afforded.
Last but not the least, granted that the choice of music is really the reason for the low attendance, it is not certain that the strategy the arguer suggests can turn the scale. On the one hand, no evidence is provided to show modern music is more popular among those residents. On the other hand, the high sale of Richerts' recording does not reveal he is more welcomed by people. One possibility is that the price of his recording is much cheaper than that of others, which results the high sale. Another possibility is that his music is hard to get from other ways, such as Internet, because of the issue of copyright, so people who want to listen his music have to purchase the recording, while other composers’ music can be downloaded easily from Internet. In addition, maybe Richerts’ music suits for listening in a very quiet environment and is not suitable to play at concerts.
To sum up, the arguer is too cursory to make the suggestion. To make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to survey the genuine reason for the decline of ticket purchases and find out the really effective method to change the situation.作者: bunnymz2005 时间: 2006-2-15 19:24:48
提纲
（1）武断的认为天气和销售减少没关系，而且“很多人”的概念比较模糊。
（2）没有证据说明销售下降的原因是音乐的选择问题，有可能是出现很多竞争，而自身宣传不够；有可能是人们生活水平下降，不能温饱，更不可能去听音乐会。（理由好！）
（3）即使下降原因真的是音乐的选择，一方面现代音乐不一定受欢迎，另一方面Richerts的唱片销量高不一定说明他受欢迎，有可能是他的唱片价格非常便宜，有可能他的作品不能通过网络或其他方式下载，想听的话只能买唱片，而且，有可能他的音乐适合在非常安静的地方听，不适合在音乐会上演奏。
提纲写得很好！赞~~~
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字数：496 words
时间：38分钟
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正文
The arguer's suggestion to feature more modern music and include Richerts' music at Glenville Summer Concert series in order to increase attendance at the concerts suffers several serious flaws as the following.（好简洁！）
First of all, the arguer is too opinionated to exclude the weather as the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases. Although many people still attended the concerts even in bad weather, the concept of 'many' is too vague for the actual data is not provided. For example, we do not know how many people on earth still purchased the tickets and how many percent the number of audiences declined for. If it is obvious that people coming to the concerts declined sharply when the whether is very bad, then it is very possible that the whether is one of the most important reasons for the phenomena. Thus, until strong evidence is provided, the weather factor cannot be excluded.（这点我没看懂，不太理解这个地方，期待与你讨论~~）
Secondly, there is no evidence to prove that the reason for the decline is the choice of music. （首句是不是可以省了 ）The arguer fails to think whether（weather） and choice of music are the only two possible reasons for the decline, then he concludes the choice of music causes the decline after he excludes the whether reason. However, his precondition is totally wrong in fact. （这句承接很别扭，直接说实际上取决于很多因素，再接后面就好啦^-^）It is possible that over the past few years, many similar concerts were(were去掉) appeared with lots of propagandas and abundant styles, while Glenville Summer Concert series seldom changed their contents and styles（这个content 和style不正好是music的选择么？矛盾了吧）, and also did not propagandize themselves. It is also possible（likely 换个词，虽然都很常见，呵呵~~~） that during recent years the living condition of Glenville residents was very poor, and they were even hard to feed themselves, then go to concerts was impossible and could not be afforded.（let alone go to concert）
Last but not the least, granted that the choice of music is really the reason for the low attendance,（这里的really总觉得怪怪的，可能是个人感觉问题吧，我觉得是不是改成indeed，哦，查了一下同义的，呵呵，换着使） it is not certain（nevertheless uncertain） that the strategy the arguer suggests can turn the scale. On the one hand, no evidence is provided to show modern music is more popular among those residents. On the other hand, the high sale of Richerts' recording does not reveal he is more welcomed by people(more popular with people). One possibility is that(学习) the price of his recording is much cheaper than that of others, which results the high sale. Another possibility is that his music is hard to get from other ways, such as Internet, because of the issue of copyright, so people who want to listen his music have to purchase the recording, while other composers’ music can be downloaded easily from Internet. In addition, maybe Richerts’ music suits for listening in a very quiet environment and is not suitable to play at concerts.（这里是不是改成让步，就算真的销量比较好，也不一定适合在音乐会上演奏，当然这样写也没有问题）
To sum up, the arguer is too cursory to make the suggestion. To make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to survey the genuine reason for the decline of ticket purchases and find out the really effective method to change the situation.
（文章写得很好，思路很清晰，只是第一段我没太看懂，期待与你讨论。这个预售票的数量跟最后参加音乐会的人有什么关系啊？不理解这个题）作者: @amy@ 时间: 2006-2-16 13:57:52