TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 495 超时 DATE: 2006-7-31
In this argument, the author asserts that the recent decline in the economy is the most likely cause of the less physically fitness of the citizens in Corpora and the fitness level will improve when the economy does. To justify his/her conclusion, the author provides the evidence of the data of twenty years ago about the fitness and a recent study. In addition, the author cites that computers are not a main reason of the situation.
To begin with, the author makes an unconfirmed assumption that the decline of fitness of all citizens is due to the too much time spent in using computer. However, it may not be the case. Firstly, the data provided is problematic. It is probable that the population has increased a lot in the past years, and one quarter of all citizens are much more than one half of the populations. And the data twenty years ago may be inaccurate and have been exaggerated. Secondly, there might be other reasons be responsible for the decline of fitness of citizens, such as the trash food and the stress in job and life. People may not have enough time to do exercises because of the business. Thirdly, the standard may be changed from the one twenty years ago. It is more difficult to reach the standard now. Without ruling out these factors, the author cannot make his conclusion.
Secondly, the author makes another hasty assumption that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit without showing any believable evidence. It is entirely possible that even if overall fitness levers are highest in regions of Corpora, the using of computer has caused a lot of diseases potentially. And these diseases are more severe than people of other regions. Also, the author does not explain the fitness level. Thus, it is unreliable to make the ultimate conclusion.
What is more, even if we admit that the recent decline in the economy is most likely to be the cause, we cannot justifiably assert that fitness levels will improve when the economy dose. Firstly, fitness is related to several factors, such as people's spare time to do exercises, and people's intention to be physically fit. If citizens are less likely to do sports, nothing would change it. Secondly, the author provides no firm relationship between economy and fitness. Thirdly, there is no evidence showing that when people are economically improved, they will spend more money on fitness-related products and services. They may be eager to buy better food, to purchase more fashionable clothes and find a new house. Or they may only save this money. Without taking into account these possible scenarios, the author cannot make me believe the conclusion.
In summary, the author fails to address some important issues and comes to his/her conclusion w based on problematic reasoning and evidence. Without strong evidence of direct causal link between physically fitness and economy, the author appears to be engaging in wishful thinking rather than rational planning.作者: wp123 时间: 2006-7-31 12:30:05
In this argument, the author asserts that the recent decline in the economy is the most likely cause of the less physically fitness of the citizens in Corpora and the fitness level will improve when the economy does. To justify his/her conclusion, the author provides the evidence of the data of twenty years ago about the fitness and a recent study. In addition, the author cites that computers are not a main reason of the situation.
To begin with, the author makes an unconfirmed assumption that the decline of fitness of all citizens is due to the too much time spent in using computer. 他没说是主要因为用电脑啊！他后来不是也反驳了嘛。However, it may not be the case. Firstly, the data provided is problematic. It is probable that the population has increased a lot in the past years, and one quarter of all citizens are much more than one half of the populations.这一点抓的好，我就没看出来。。。。太着急了。 And the data twenty years ago may be inaccurate and have been exaggerated. Secondly, there might be other reasons be responsible for the decline of fitness of citizens, such as the trash food and the stress in job and life. People may not have enough time to do exercises because of the business. Thirdly, the standard may be changed from the one twenty years ago. It is more difficult to reach the standard now. Without ruling out these factors, the author cannot make his conclusion.
Secondly, the author makes another hasty assumption that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit without showing any believable evidence. It is entirely possible that even if overall fitness levers are highest in regions of Corpora, the using of computer has caused a lot of diseases potentially. And these diseases are more severe than people of other regions. Also, the author does not explain the fitness level. Thus, it is unreliable to make the ultimate conclusion.
What is more, even if we admit that the recent decline in the economy is most likely to be the cause, we cannot justifiably assert that fitness levels will improve when the economy dose. Firstly, fitness is related to several factors, such as people's spare time to do exercises, and people's intention to be physically fit. If citizens are less likely to do sports, nothing would change it. Secondly, the author provides no firm relationship between economy and fitness. Thirdly, there is no evidence showing that when people are economically improved, they will spend more money on fitness-related products and services. They may be eager to buy better food, to purchase more fashionable clothes and find a new house. Or they may only save this money. Without taking into account these possible scenarios, the author cannot make me believe the conclusion.
In summary, the author fails to address some important issues and comes to his/her conclusion w based on problematic reasoning and evidence. Without strong evidence of direct causal link between physically fitness and economy, the author appears to be engaging in wishful thinking rather than rational planning.
In this argument, the author asserts that the recent decline in the economy is the most likely cause of the less physically fitness of the citizens in Corpora and the fitness level will improve when the economy does. To justify his/her conclusion, the author provides the evidence of the data of twenty years ago about the fitness and a recent study. In addition, the author cites that computers are not a main reason of the situation.
To begin with, the author makes an unconfirmed assumption that the decline of fitness of all citizens is due to the too much time spent in using computer.[其实后面作者又说了这不是原因] However, it may not be the case. Firstly, the data provided is problematic. It is probable that the population has increased a lot in the past years, and one quarter of all citizens are much more than one half of the populations. And the data twenty years ago may be inaccurate and have been exaggerated. Secondly, there might be other reasons be responsible for the decline of fitness of citizens, such as the trash food and the stress in job and life. People may not have enough time to do exercises because of the business. Thirdly, the standard may be changed from the one twenty years ago. It is more difficult to reach the standard now. Without ruling out these factors, the author cannot make his conclusion.
Secondly, the author makes another hasty assumption that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit without showing any believable evidence. It is entirely possible that even if overall fitness levers are highest in regions of Corpora, the using of computer has caused a lot of diseases potentially. And these diseases are more severe than people of other regions. Also, the author does not explain the fitness level. Thus, it is unreliable to make the ultimate conclusion.
What is more, even if we admit that the recent decline in the economy is most likely to be the cause, we cannot justifiably assert that fitness levels will improve when the economy dose.[我还是觉得应该按照原文的逻辑一层层攻击比较好, 比如先攻击经济衰退不一定引起消费减少, 再攻击消费减少不一定引起健康下降] Firstly, fitness is related to several factors, such as people's spare time to do exercises, and people's intention to be physically fit. If citizens are less likely to do sports, nothing would change it. Secondly, the author provides no firm relationship between economy and fitness. Thirdly, there is no evidence showing that when people are economically improved, they will spend more money on fitness-related products and services. They may be eager to buy better food, to purchase more fashionable clothes and find a new house. Or they may only save this money. Without taking into account these possible scenarios, the author cannot make me believe the conclusion.
In summary, the author fails to address some important issues and comes to his/her conclusion w based on problematic reasoning and evidence. Without strong evidence of direct causal link between physically fitness and economy, the author appears to be engaging in wishful thinking rather than rational planning.