TOPIC: ARGUMENT23 - A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
WORDS: 457 TIME: 0:28:46 DATE: 2007-3-26 （已自己修改）
In this argument, the author expects that a new restaurant specializing in seafood operated in Bay City (BC) will be quite popular and profitable. This expectation is based on the fact that though consumption of seafood dishes in BC restaurants has increased over the past five years, there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialized in seafood. In addition, the author points out that most BC families are two-income families. Moreover, the author cites a nationwide study showing that such two-income families prefer eating out of their homes and prefer eating healthily. At first glance, this argument seems somehow appealing, but a further examination reveals that it suffers from several logical flaws.
To begin with, the author's expectation is based on the assumption that the trend of consuming seafood dishes in BC will continue into the future. However, there is no evidence to support it. As we know, the trend of eating is a fashion which changes with time and depends on various things, for example a public report, a pop star and so on. Since the author assumes that BC families prefer healthy food, perhaps a future study would indicate that seafood is unhealthy, thus the consumption of seafood in BC will decline. Without taking into consideration and ruling out such possibility, the author cannot assume that the increase trend in seafood consumption will continue.
Secondly, the author commits a fallacy of ''all things are equal" in assuming that BC has the same trend as the nationwide study indicated that two-income families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than before and they prefer health food. Perhaps families of BC differ from families of other places, and they prefer cook at home. Without providing more information about the nation study and finding out whether BC share the same trend as other places, the author's expectation based upon it is highly suspect.
Even BC's families also eat fewer home-cooked meals than before and prefer healthy food as the nationwide survey indicated, the author unfairly assumes that they will consume seafood dishes. However, there is no evidence to support it. Perhaps BC residents prefer other food than seafood even they do not eat at home. Or perhaps the consumption of seafood is most caused by tourists not BC residents who consider seafood unhealthy. Without considering and eliminating such possibilities, the author cannot assert that BC families like to consume seafood.
In conclusion, this conclusion suffers from several flaws. To make it more convincing, the author needs to supply more information about BC's seafood consuming trend. Moreover, the author needs to prove that BC families have the same preference as the nationwide study indicated. At last, the author needs to consider other possibilities that could influence BC's seafood consumption.作者: 月光疾风 时间: 2007-3-26 22:59:33
TOPIC: ARGUMENT23 - A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
WORDS: 457 TIME: 0:28:46 DATE: 2007-3-26 （已自己修改）
In this argument, the author expects that a new restaurant specializing in seafood operated in Bay City (BC) will be quite popular and profitable. This expectation is based on the fact that though consumption of seafood dishes in BC restaurants has increased over the past five years, there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialized in seafood. In addition, the author points out that most BC families are two-income families. Moreover, the author cites a nationwide study showing that such two-income families prefer eating out of their homes and prefer eating healthily. At first glance, this argument seems somehow appealing, but a further examination reveals that it suffers from several logical flaws.
To begin with, the author's expectation is based on the assumption that the trend of consuming seafood dishes in BC will continue into the future. However, there is no evidence to support it. As we know, the trend of eating is a fashion which changes with time and depends on various things, for example (such as? 貌似for example后面都是写句子的) a public report, a pop star and so on. Since the author assumes that BC families prefer healthy food, perhaps a future study would indicate that seafood is unhealthy, thus the consumption of seafood in BC will decline. Without taking into consideration and ruling out such possibility (a possibility), the author cannot assume that the increase trend in seafood consumption will continue.
Secondly, the author commits a fallacy of ''all things are equal" in assuming that BC has the same trend as the nationwide study indicated that two-income families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than before and they prefer health food. Perhaps families of BC differ from families of other places, and they prefer cook (cooking) at home. Without providing more information about the nation study and finding out whether BC share the same trend as other places, the author's expectation based upon it is highly suspect.
Even BC's families also eat fewer home-cooked meals than before and prefer healthy food as the nationwide survey indicated, the author unfairly assumes that they will consume seafood dishes. However, there is no evidence to support it. Perhaps BC residents prefer other food than seafood even they do not eat at home. Or perhaps the consumption of seafood is most (mostly) caused by tourists not (rather than or instead of) BC residents who consider seafood unhealthy. Without considering and eliminating such possibilities, the author cannot assert that BC families like to consume seafood.
In conclusion (In sum, 否则与后面的conclusion重叠，不通顺), this conclusion suffers from several flaws. To make it more convincing, the author needs to supply more information about BC's seafood consuming trend. Moreover, the author needs to prove that BC families have the same preference as the nationwide study indicated. At last, the author needs to consider other possibilities that could influence BC's seafood consumption（这里最好用such as 举几个例子，如价格因素等）.