Argument45: "Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
In the argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the increasing temperature, because warm weather makes the ice on the island melt away and the deer unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support his conclusion, he cite the result of a recent report from hunters that the deer populations are declining. In addition, he points out that this trend coincides with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.
First and foremost, the report presented by hunters that the population of deer is declining is not credible. It is highly possible that the hunters considered the decline of the deer just because it was hard for them to hunt for deer. The population of deer might not decrease. In addition, the time, area and habits of their hunting may also influence on whether they would see a deer, so the report of the hunter that the population of deer id declining is unreliable.
Even assuming that the hunter’s report that the population of deer is declining is believable, the author cannot relate it with the increasing temperature. The argument observes a correlation between recent global warming trends and the decreasing deer population, then conclude that the former is the cause of the latter. However, on evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption.
Even though the decreasing deer population is actually related to increasing temperature, the author falsely assumes that the global weather applies equally to this area. Yet this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons. Perhaps the temperature other areas grew rapidly thus cause the global warming, yet the temperature of this area might remain the same, even decreased. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that it is the global warming that causes the decreasing deer population.
Even assuming that the warm weather caused by global warming made the ice melted and influenced numbers of deer, the author makes a hasty generalization that it was because the deer were unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. He fails to account for other possible causes, such as the excess hunting for deer, or the wide lacking for food. These factors may also cause the decreasing number of deer.
To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the increasing temperature, because the evidence in the analysis dose not lends strong support to what the author maintains. To make this argument more convincing, the author should make more surveys on the change or the number of the deer, and whether the else factors that frightens the environment of deer exist.
In the argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the increasing temperature, because warm weather makes the ice on the island melt away and the deer unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support his conclusion, he cites the result of a recent report from hunters that the deer populations are declining. In addition, he points out that this trend coincides with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.First and foremost, the report presented by hunters that the population of deer is declining is not credible. It is highly possible that the hunters considered the decline of the deer just because it was hard for them to hunt for deer. The population of deer might not decrease. In addition, the time, area and habits of their hunting may also influence on whether they would see a deer, so the report of the hunter that the population of deer is declining is unreliable.Even assuming that the hunter’s report that the population of deer is declining is believable, the author cannot relate it with the increasing temperature. The argument observes a correlation between recent global warming trends and the decreasing deer population, then concludes that the former is the cause of the latter. However, on evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. (可以再具体些比如其他一些影响的因数是哪些呢?)Even though the decreasing deer population is actually related to increasing temperature, the author falsely assumes that the global weather applies equally to this area. Yet this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons. Perhaps the temperature other areas grew rapidly thus cause the global warming, yet the temperature of this area might remain the same, even decreased. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that it is the global warming that causes the decreasing deer population.Even assuming that the warm weather caused by global warming made the ice melted and influenced numbers of deer, the author makes a hasty generalization that it was because the deer were unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. He fails to account for other possible causes, such as the excess hunting for deer, or the wide lacking for food. These factors may also cause the decreasing number of deer.To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiate his claim that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the increasing temperature, because the evidence in the analysis dose not lends strong support to what the author maintains. To make this argument more convincing, the author should make more surveys on the change or the number of the deer, and whether the else factors that frightens the environment of deer exist.
总体来说文章的逻辑很好层层深入但是我觉得可以把每个方面再稍微深入一些会更好作者: joycening 时间: 2007-7-25 22:55:58