题目：ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
字数：493 用时：00:28:24 日期：2007-8-7 14:46:03
The arguer recommends the daily use of Ichthaid as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism because Ichhthaid is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. To support his recommendation, he cites the fact that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Careful examination of the evidence, however, reveals that it renders little credible support to the recommendation.
Firstly, the arguer unfairly assumes that the incidence of colds in East Meria (EM) is low based on the fact that people visit the doctor only once or twice per year. However, this assumption is unwarranted. Perhaps the expense for seeing doctor is quite high in EM. Thus, it is possible that even though many residents in EM have got colds, they do not go to the doctor because they cannot afford the treatment, which is opposite to the arguer's assumption. Without elaborate materials presented, I find the arguer's assumption that incidence of colds in EM is low unjustifiable.
Secondly, even if the incidence of colds in EM is low, it dos not indicate that it is eating enough fish that helps prevent colds. After all, there are many other factors influencing the incidence of colds such as residents' diet habits. The residents in EM, perhaps, eat a lot of vegetables in their daily diet. And, the Vitamin C contained in green vegetables can certainly strengthen human bodies' immune systems, and thus, the incidence of colds is low. In short, without further evidence, I am not convinced that eating a substantial amount of fish has anything to do with preventing colds.
Thirdly, even if eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds, it is little indication that daily use of Ichthaid would prevent colds. Because we are not informed whether what Ichthaid contains is the key substitute that helps prevent colds in fish. Since Ichthaid is only a supplement derived from fish oil, it is possible that the component helping prevent colds exists in other part of fish, but not in the fish oil. Without a study showing that the ingredients in Ichthaid can prevent colds, the arguer cannot validate his recommendation.
Finally, even if Ichthaid can help prevent colds, the arguer is too hasty to draw a conclusion that daily use of Ichthaid can lower absenteeism. Because his claim that colds are the reasons most frequently given for absences is totally unreliable and is only his personal assumption. Absent evidence there is, it is possible that most frequently given reasons for absences from school and work are not colds but urgent affairs, If this is the case, daily use of Ichthaid would not help lower absenteeism at all.
In sum, the recommendation is logically flawed as it stands because it is based on a series of unreliable evidences. To support his recommendation, the arguer has to provide further evidences such as(1)a study confirms the correlation between eating fish and lower incidence of colds;(2)a repot shows that Ichthaid can actually prevent colds;(3)a report confirms that colds are the main reasons for absences.作者: xsr6064 时间: 2007-8-9 18:12:35 标题: 对不起，晚了
The arguer recommends the daily use of Ichthaid as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism because Ichhthaid is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. To support his recommendation, he cites the fact that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Careful examination of the evidence, however, reveals that it renders little credible support to the recommendation.
Firstly, the arguer unfairly assumes that the incidence of colds in East Meria (EM) is low based on the fact that people visit the doctor only once or twice per year. However, this assumption is unwarranted. Perhaps the expense for seeing doctor is quite high in EM. Thus, it is possible that even though many residents in EM have got colds, they do not go to the doctor because they cannot afford the treatment, which is opposite to the arguer's assumption. Without elaborate materials presented, I find the arguer's assumption that incidence of colds in EM is low unjustifiable.
Secondly, even if the incidence of colds in EM is low, it dos not indicate that it is eating enough fish that helps prevent colds. After all, there are many other factors influencing the incidence of colds such as residents' diet habits. The residents in EM, perhaps, eat a lot of vegetables in their daily diet. And, the Vitamin C contained in green vegetables can certainly strengthen human bodies' immune systems, and thus, the incidence of colds is low. In short, without further evidence, I am not convinced that eating a substantial amount of fish has anything to do with preventing colds.
Thirdly, even if eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds, it is little indication that daily use of Ichthaid would prevent colds. Because we are not informed whether what Ichthaid contains is the key substitute that helps prevent colds in fish. Since Ichthaid is only a supplement derived from fish oil, it is possible that the component helping prevent colds exists in other part of fish, but not in the fish oil. Without a study showing that the ingredients in Ichthaid can prevent colds, the arguer cannot validate his recommendation.
Finally, even if Ichthaid can help prevent colds, the arguer is too hasty to draw a conclusion that daily use of Ichthaid can lower absenteeism. Because his claim that colds are the reasons most frequently given for absences is totally unreliable and is only his personal assumption. Absent evidence there is, it is possible that most frequently given reasons for absences from school and work are not colds but urgent affairs, If this is the case, daily use of Ichthaid would not help lower absenteeism at all.
In sum, the recommendation is logically flawed as it stands because it is based on a series of unreliable evidences. To support his recommendation, the arguer has to provide further evidences such as(1)a study confirms the correlation between eating fish and lower incidence of colds;(2)a repot shows that Ichthaid can actually prevent colds;(3)a report confirms that colds are the main reasons for absences.(这样的列举感觉有些僵硬)