In this argument, the speaker draw a conclusion that the producers of Gulf Coast oyster would be profitable, because consumers will pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters. To support his opinion the arguer cites a fact that scientists have invented a process for killing the bacteria in Gulf Coast oysters, and assume that safety of Gulf Coast oysters will increase to make consumers like to buy them. However, there are several flaws in the arguer's logic, as discussed below.
Firstly, the arguer only provides the fact that scientists have devised a process for killing the harmful bacteria, but not mention the effect of the process to kill the bacteria. It is possible that the method has not been used in practice. It could not kill the bacteria clearly to let people eat Gulf Coast oyster safely. Or perhaps the process is useful enough to kill the bacteria but it makes Gulf Coast oysters not delicious as they once are. Without exact information about the effect of the process for killing the bacteria, I could not be convienced that harmful bacteria found in Gulf Coast oysters could be killed over and oysters are still suit for people to eat.
Secondly, even if consumers has know that the safety of Gulf Coast oysters has increased because of the scientific process, it still could not induce that consumers would pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oytsers. As economic knowledge we know, if the oysters of northeastern Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast are comparable together, it is probable that consumers maybe pay the same high price for oystera from Gulf Coast as for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast, or perhaps consumers will decline the price for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast to the same price for oysters of Gulf Coast. The arguer ignores the latter possibility, so his conclusion lies a flaw.
Thirdly, even if consumers pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coasr oysters, producers of Gulf Coast oyster might be not profitable as the arguer assumes. It is possible that the quatity of Gulf Coast oyster has decreased because of climate or circumstance. Perhaps it happens a big hurricane in sea nearby Gulf Coast, which make producers of Gulf Coast oysters lose a lot of oysters. In this instance, producers would not gain great profits as the arguer assumes even if consumers are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters.
In summary, the arguer ignores many other possibilities which could influence the profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers. In order to support his point better, the arguer should provide more detailed information about the process for killing the basteria, the change of price of Gulf Coast oysters and the producing situations of Gulf Coast oyster.作者: norns 时间: 2007-8-9 22:36:08
In this argument, the speaker draw a conclusion that the producers of Gulf Coast oyster would be profitable, because consumers will pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters. To support his opinion the arguer cites a fact that scientists have invented a process for killing the bacteria in Gulf Coast oysters, and assume that safety of Gulf Coast oysters will increase to make consumers like to buy them. However, there are several flaws in the arguer's logic, as discussed below.
Firstly, the arguer only provides the fact that scientists have devised a process for killing the harmful bacteria, but not mention the effect of the process to kill the bacteria. It is possible that the method has not been used in practice. It could not kill the bacteria clearly to let people eat Gulf Coast oyster safely.（加个为什么可能不被应用于实际的原因） Or perhaps the process is useful enough to kill the bacteria but it makes Gulf Coast oysters not delicious as they once are（还是缺让人可信的理由）. Without exact information about the effect of the process for killing the bacteria, I could not be convienced that harmful bacteria found in Gulf Coast oysters could be killed over and oysters are still suit for people to eat.
Secondly, even if consumers has know that the safety of Gulf Coast oysters has increased because of the scientific process, it still could not induce that consumers would pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oytsers. As economic knowledge we know, if the oysters of northeastern Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast are comparable together, it is probable that consumers maybe pay the same high price for oystera from Gulf Coast as for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast, or perhaps consumers will decline the price for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast to the same price for oysters of Gulf Coast. The arguer ignores the latter possibility, so his conclusion lies a flaw.
Thirdly, even if consumers pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coasr oysters, producers of Gulf Coast oyster might be not profitable as the arguer assumes. It is possible that the quatity of Gulf Coast oyster has decreased because of climate or circumstance. Perhaps it happens a big hurricane in sea nearby Gulf Coast, which make producers of Gulf Coast oysters lose a lot of oysters. (反例太特别了)In this instance, producers would not gain great profits as the arguer assumes even if consumers are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters.
In summary, the arguer ignores many other possibilities which could influence the profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers. In order to support his point better, the arguer should provide more detailed information about the process for killing the basteria, the change of price of Gulf Coast oysters and the producing situations of Gulf Coast oyster.