题目：ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
字数：323 用时：上午 12:30:00 日期：2007-8-8
The argument seems to be reasonable at the first glance, but there are some flaws or dubious plots after careful analysis. It must be necessary to point the wrongs out.
First of all, the arguer fails to result from things happened occasionally as the study was taken. In the above memo, the so-called report just focused the attention on the fish consumption as the cause of the healthy body of the residents without analysis carefully. It is possible that the air is more fresh, the water is clean, the climate is warm, and the sun is constant in nearby East Meria while, the air is polluted by the wastes of a chemical plan, the source of water is melt with the dirty, the climate is warm but windy now and then, and the sun always behind the cloud in WestMeria. And the fish consumers may be everywhere for the sake of the private favorites. More proof is better to expose to convince the Public Health Coucil believing the impact of the fish eating.
However, admitting that the fish is effective on the prevention of colds, there is no evidence claims that the absences from school and work is because of the colds. Maybe important factors, such as the common hobbits in the WestMeria that watches football games on television in the midnight while the marches are hold abroad, the long dreams affecting to get up early, and the play-addicts and so forth. Wisely the arguer give some evidence or certain things to prove the calculate cause of absence.
Finally, assuming that the fish can hint the colds and the cold leads the students' out of class, the arguer simply equals the "fish oil" "fish" while and comes to a conclusion that the Ichthaid can prevent the colds and lower absenteeism. No materials and experiments represent the possibility of the influence of the medicine of Ichthaid which is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil.
Possibly, the fish contain something playing roll in the prevention of colds can be easily destroyed when producers get fish oil from the fish. Or the effective substantial is not contained in the fish oil.
In all, the arguer just equal the “fish oil” to “fish”, wrongly concludes that the fish is one food preventing the colds and the residents in nearby East Meria is a case in point, just from a things at random happened at that time when the study was taken and. All analysis of the argument is vague and better and more evidences are needed in the future proving in view.