TOPIC: ARGUMENT83 - The following appeared in a memo from the business manager of Medicine, Inc., a local drugstore.
"Most business analysts for the drugstore industry have stated that even when a nation's economy is weak, drugstores' profits are unlikely to decline appreciably. While consumers might put off some kinds of purchases when the economy is slow, prescription and over-the-counter drug purchases are dictated by consumers' health needs, which are independent of the economy. Therefore, Medicine Inc. is likely to continue to have increasing profits and should plan to open an additional drugstore next year."
WORDS: 550 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2007-8-9 13:04:46
Based on the premise given, the author states that the Medicine Inc. will be more profitable and should open another shop. However, his suggestion is too hasty and lack enough information, which render it from convincible.
First of all, the purchases of medicine might not increase. Although the amount of medicine is due to health need, in time of low economy, people will restrict these expenditures as much as possible. For example, when in good economy, people might buy some medicine for curing ailments like cold in order to get rid of it faster, however, when the economical condition is bad, they would most probably buy little medicine like this and expect the ailments would be cured itself. Another possibility is that people will avoid medicines intended to provide more nutrition and only buy drugs for severe illness. Even if the purchases would not decrease, no information can convince us that it will rise; so the suggestion based on the increase of purchases of medicine is not persuasive. The author should provide evidence rather than predict the increase rootless.
Even if the purchase increases, the author failed to prove that the profits will increase as well. First, the author failed to consider in certain areas the competition, if there is another drugstore that affect the sales of the Medicine Inc. If this is the case, when that store is more competitive, the customers that go to our medicine store would probably drop, despite the increase of total purchase nationwide. Then the income might be less. What's more, even if we exclude this factor, the author failed to provide information about the fluctuation about the cost and price of our medicine. If the medicine factories are lifting the price then the profit of the single medicine would decrease; in this situation we are not sure whether the total income would rise-even given that the customers would rise. So the author failed to consider economic factors, he should provide more detailed information about the market and the profit.
Finally, given that the abovementioned is right, the author's suggestion that plan to open a new drugstore is too hasty. First I wonder whether the present economic state can afford the cost of a store. It is possibly that our conditions are not good enough so that there is not much profit. If this is true, the author should not do such suggestions. What's more, even if we can afford the cost of a shop. The author failed to consider the situations when the drugstore is built. A very actual concern is that if the drugstore cost too much to make the profit to rise quickly, we should consider is it worthwhile to take risk for the long-term benefits? Besides, the new drugstore might take up part of the market shares of the old one, so that the total profits might even less. Or in the place where the new store is built there are too many stores that it can hardly earn enough money. If any of this is true, the suggestion is not reasonable.
In sum, the author ignored much information so that his suggestion is unsounded. To make it more persuasive, the author should provide more information about the market, the profit and the situations of the location of new store.作者: 萝卜小心 时间: 2009-4-13 17:57:11