TOPIC: ARGUMENT167 - A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.
In the argument, the author points out that the secnt in lavender flowers is helpful to cure insomnia. To justify the assertion, the author cites that a study shows the results. Close scrutiny of the fact, however, the conclusion relies on a series of unsubstantiates assumption, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
A threshold problem with the argument is that it assumes that the results of the survey which conducted among 30volunteers in 3weeks is reliable. However, the number of people take part in the survey is too small to convince me. It should ask more chronic insomnia patients to take the study. Moreover, 3 weeks is a too short time for the patient to recover. Perhaps they can not sleep again after several months. Thus, as it stands the observer study is statiscally unreliable and lends no credit to the conclusion.
The argument also unfairly that during the third weeks the patients sleeps well. However, the author fails to provide any evidence to show that they sleep well. The argument only tells that the volunteers slept longer and more soundly. However, it does not mean sleep well.Perhaps they would feel even more tired in when they wake. Lacking evidence that the patients sleep well in the third weeks, the author is too hastily to reach the conclusion.
Even assuming that the patients sleep well in the third weeks, the author overlooks other possible causes. It is entirely possible that they sleep well because of the effect of sleeping medication, rather than the effect of the scent in lavender flowers. Perhaps the sleeping medicines effects so long , more than 2 weeks, that in the third week, the patients also would be affected. Without considering and ruling out these or other factors that might contribute to the pantients sleeping, the author ban not draw any conclusion that the secnt in lavender is effective.
Finally, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, the author overlooks other possible factors. Yet , logic and common sense inform me that the result might have due instead to one or more other factors. For instance, the scent in lavender flowers might have other negative effects which would harm for the health. Perhaps the negative effects would harmful to the health after a long time the patients smell the scent in lavender. Without taking into accout these possibilities, the author cannot persuade me that the scent in lavender flowers is a good treatment for the insomnia.
In sum, the author cannot validate the statement on the basic of scant evidence provided in the argument. To bolster the conclusion, the author must provide clear evidence to show that the statistics of the survey is reliable . To evaluate the conclusion more sufficiently, it would be useful to know more informaion concerning that the scent of lavender flowers would cure the insomnia patients.
附提纲：
1 小样本调查，30volunteers ,3 weeks不具代表性
2 没有证据说明第三周睡的好，sleep longer and more soundly 不表示睡的好
3 第三周的结果可能是之前安眠葯的作用，不是熏衣草的作用
4 即使熏衣草有作用，他可能还有其他副作用