Argument 71 [jet] no.6

jinluevaUID: 2390375

Argument 71

Date: 2008-2-14
Time: 35 m
Words Count: 420

At first glance, the new method seems to be a comparatively beneficial one. Based on this assumption, the author further draws the conclusion that the expected usage of electric power will be significantly declined. To support this reasoning, comparison between original technologies and the new one is presented by the arguer. Nevertheless, the whole argument lacks indispensible supporting facts and cogent reasoning, which considerably undermine the credibility of the conclusion.

First of all, the contrast of the two technologies, which functions as the base of the argument, is unfortunately vague. From what presented in the argument, we can get no more results than the single fact that when extracting the same amount of ore, new method could save up to 40% of the electricity consumption. Is the ore purity the same for the two experiments? Dose the quantity of copper extracted from the same amount of ore by the new method equate that of the old method? Are the qualities comparable? Without specific information about all these aspects, the author misleadingly takes it for granted that the new technology is much better than the original one in terms of electricity saving.

Another logic fallacy worth mentioning is the underlying assumption, which indicates that the new technology will swiftly replace the old one giving its advantage in energy saving. In reality, to make the decision of technology change, many other crucial factors must be taken into consideration. For example, if the new technology costs much more than the expenditure of electric power it saved, to adopt it is apparently an unwise investment. Moreover, it can hardly be prevailing if the required skills are too high to handle by workers.

Last but not least, the conclusion that we can expect noted decline of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry is also logically ridiculous even if the new technology will be widely accepted due to its merit. It is our common sense that the amount of energy used by an industry depends not only on the per unit consumption, but also on the total quantity of production, i.e., how many copper being extracted. If the adoption of new technology reduces per unit consumption of electric power, but more copper is produced, the use of electricity may even increase.

In summary, the reasons described in this argument are far from enough to draw the final conclusion that the electricity used by copper industry will be greatly decline. Further researches are needed not only about the technology, but also about the copper market and the technology market.