"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
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In this memo, the author maintains that the best way to improve profits in all of stores is to stock primarily many of varieties of domestic cheeses instead of the varieties of imported cheese. At first glance it seems to be convincing, however, after a close scrutiny, there are several logical flaws undermining this argument.
First of all, the threshold problem with the argument is that the author mistakenly simply equates profit with the sale. Although the five best-selling cheeses at newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses, the amount of sale can not be representative for the profit. It is high possible that the amount of sale of imported cheeses is less than that of domestic cheddar cheeses ,but the profit of imported cheeses is much more than that of domestic cheddar cheeses. Without taking into account this possibility, the author cannot expect us to take seriously that the best-selling of domestic cheddar cheeses can bringing the immense profit.
In addition, even assuming that the domestic cheddar cheeses can increase the profit of stores, the author can not conclude that over all stores should sell the same domestic cheddar cheeses as did the newest store. The author provides no evidence that the newest store is representative of overall stores. It is entirely possible that the newest store have a large number of customers who have a favor of the domestic cheddar cheeses. However, it is also possible that the customers of other stores have a favor of the imported cheeses. Lacking evidence the newest store equate to the over stores, the author can not draw a conclusion over all store should stock domestic cheeses and do discontinue stocking imported cheese.
Furthermore, the survey of the World magazine should be reliable in all respects, the survey did not provides any information and statistics that how many people respond this survey, whether these respondents could be representative of all people. There is a high possibility that a few people who like the domestic cheeses participated in the survey, but many other people never respond the survey. If the author can not rule out these and other possibilities, the reliability of the survey is doubtful and problematic.
Finally but not least, the author claims that for improving the profits, the way of discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses is best .In fact, there is countless way to improve the profits. For example, the stores can improve their management, and employ some experienced workers. In addition, the author can develop other productions. Considering these feasible ways to improve the profits of stores, these stores cannot consider stocking imported cheese as the best way,
In sum, the author fails to convince that by using the way of domestic cheese, the profit of all stores will improve. To better substantiate this argument , I need more evidence that the amount of sales in the newest store equate to the profit of the store. The author also need provide evidences that over all stores would adopt the way of sales and that the survey of World magazine is reliable. What is more, author should take into other ways to improve the profit of stores.作者: hds123523000 时间: 2008-2-18 16:19:04 标题: 回复 #1 linkcc 的帖子
In this argument, the author claims that by adopting new method of copper-extracting technologies, the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry would decline significantly. To substantiate this claim, the author points that the method of new copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than old method, especially used ores whose proportion of copper is high; and that every copper extraction industry would adopt the new method. After a close scrutiny, however, in several respects, there is little【few恐怕要好一点，evidence是可数的啊】 credible evidence supporting this argument.
First of all, the threshold problem with the argument is that the author concludes that the new method will save more electricity than the old method. However, the author provides no information and evidences to support that new method will save more electricity than the old method, when new method used on the ore whose proportion of copper is low. As the author said, the way of extracting pure copper from ore required large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. It is high possible that when extracting coppers from the ore whose proportion of copper is low, the new method will cost no less amount of electricity than the old method. Lacking enough information and statistics to rule out the possibility, the author can not draw a conclusion that the new method will save electricity than the old one.
Secondly, even assuming the new method can save electricity, whether in the ore whose proportion of copper is high or in the ore whose proportion of copper is low, the author cannot claims that every copper-extraction industry would adopt the new methods. It is impossible for us to know whether the new method will increase the revenue of industry. Perhaps the way of using the new method is too difficult to master, many small industry would not do【be in， 若用do好像是帮忙的意思啊】 favor of the new method. Or perhaps if adopting the new method, the cost of industry will increase so that all industry would prefer to the old method. Without in details analyzing these and such other factors, the author can not expect us to take seriously that every industry would adopt the new methods.
Finally, even assuming every industry has adopted the new methods, the author cannot assert that the amount of electricity will decline significantly. The author fails to 【take】account into the possibility that due to the new method, the amount of extracted copper will increase therefore the additional amount of electricity of extracted copper will offset the amount of saved electricity. The total amount of electricity would maintain the same as the old level even surpass the old level. Without sufficiently taking 【account】into the possibility, the author can not conclude than the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry will decline.
In sum, the author can not convince me that by adopting the new method of copper-extracting technology, the amount of electricity will incline in every copper-extraction industry. To better evaluate this argument, I would need more information that the new method will save electricity than old one in the ore whose proportion of copper is low. Furthermore, the author need provide evidence that every industry would adopt the new method and rule out abovementioned possibilities which will undermine this argument.
【这篇argument写的真是不错，有理有据，分析充分，语言通顺。是一篇不错的文章。但是不知道你是不是计时写的，如果真是这样那就很不错啊】