Argument 88
The following appeared in a newsletter about health published in the country of Sauria.
"According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."
1. the key point is the understanding with the term "optimal" in the Sauria's leading nutritional experts. As we know , when experts use this term, generally they mean that compared to those who don't have a diet high in complex carbohydrates and low in fat(diet of H&L), those who have such a diet are more possible to have a good health and longvity. Both of them should be similar at most other aspects.
2. For this reason, all data from the author are unconvincing since there are no control samples for all the data.
2.1 It is not sure that the ancient people in the Sauria who have the diet of H&L would have good health and lonvity since the experts haven't made such a promise because the condition of ancient people are perhaps greatly different from the that of mordern people. They have so little similarity that no comparision should be taken between them.
2.2 Furthermore, the ruling classes hardly represent all the people in ancient Sauria since the condition of ruling classes generally differs with that of normal residents. Even if they are representative, since no control sample of the ruling classes are offered, the conclusion is still unconvincing. Perhaps those ancient ruling people in Sauria who don't have the diet of H&L have more medical problems than those who have the diet of H&L. If so, the conclusion that the experts are wrong are controversial.
2.3 There is the same problem with the result of the morden experiment that the high incidence of lots of disease among those who have the diet of H&L. There is no evidence that the situation of others who don't have the diet of H&L is not worse than the people with the diet of H&L. Perhaps in Sauria the rate of those disease always keeps at high level, therefore without control experiments the situation of the people with the diet of H&L can't be characterize as a failure.作者: wuziqing1498 时间: 2009-2-28 14:21:20
"According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."
"According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal 最理想的for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."
我的反对观点提纲：
1，关于这个diet 的真正作用。是否不能，将导致什么。A对于历史与现在，I古代与200年前的关系II吃与病的必然关系，III，特别是高层阶级
2，试与病的先后因果关系。
3，真正的应该是这样的：选的人，对照组，时间等。（这点不好，换掉，（从你的得到启发：有时可以从某个极端的词，或修饰语出发：）作者没有证明它不行，提出别的更好的方法。
但论据为我们服务。
1. the key point is the understanding with the term "optimal" in the Sauria's leading nutritional experts. As we know , when experts use this term, generally they mean that compared to those who don't have a diet high in complex carbohydrates and low in fat(diet of H&L), those who have such a diet are more possible to have a good health and longvity. Both of them should be similar at most other aspects.（这个你出发点很好：批判前提，但这也只是一种可能性。你要注意避免写成I的嫌疑。 2. For this reason, all data from the author are unconvincing since there are no control samples for all the data.
2.1 It is not sure that the ancient people in the Sauria who have the diet of H&L would have good health and lonvity since the experts haven't made such a promise because the condition of ancient people are perhaps greatly different from the that of mordern people. They have so little similarity that no comparision should be taken between them.
2.2 Furthermore, the ruling classes hardly represent all the people in ancient Sauria since the condition of ruling classes generally differs with that of normal residents. Even if they are representative, since no control sample of the ruling classes are offered, the conclusion is still unconvincing. Perhaps those ancient ruling people in Sauria who don't have the diet of H&L have more medical problems than those who have the diet of H&L. If so, the conclusion that the experts are wrong are controversial.
2.3 There is the same problem with the result of the morden experiment that the high incidence of lots of disease among those who have the diet of H&L. There is no evidence that the situation of others who don't have the diet of H&L is not worse than the people with the diet of H&L. Perhaps in Sauria the rate of those disease always keeps at high level, therefore without control experiments the situation of the people with the diet of H&L can't be characterize as a failure.你不觉得这三点都可归结为调查的人无代表性吗？ 不过整体没有什么大错我觉得。作者: bingmou 时间: 2009-2-28 16:00:25