ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
In this arguement,the arguer is confident about that the store will gain great profits after new stores open in Plainsville.At first glance,the logic seems perfect with the arguer's analysis.However,several flaws exist.
By qoateting report from Plainsville merchants and making survey of a local health club,the arguer concludes that large market exists in Plainsville.He or she ignores that sales of running shoes and exercise cloting are at all-time highs cannot reveal the large number of consumers exist in Plainsville because that many people who actually dislike sports perfer wearing running shoes and exercise clothing just like to enjoy the comfortable feeling of wearing sports items. Moreover.lacking both cute number of clud member and related rate makes the popularity of exercise regularly in Plainsville unconvicing.And the sample of survey is too small to cover all the local people.All of these fails to establish the fact that large number of consumers exist.
Another flaw that weaken this argument is that "fitness of life" program may not be taken seresely in all school and maybe only few students participate in the program.Thus the rate of exercise children is vague.Children now is too young to be consumers for their econimical depend on parents and parents always have rights to rule children's purchase.So that they may not bring profits.
Even there is large group of customers who indeed exercise regualary in Plainsville,they may not be intresisted in NW'S products.The arguer assumes unfairly that people will surely buy their products such as health food and other health-related products.Even they will buy these kind of products,custmers probably choose products from NW's competiters.
As we all know,building new stores and adversting new brands cost so large bughet.Disregarding of these cost,the arguer failed to conclude that new stores will be profitable.Even they gain profits,the argument cannot provide information that people's interest in sports will continue in the future.Something may change in lifestyle so they may dislike sports anymore.
At last,the memo may probably succeed if the vice president makes more related surveys about Plainsville.
(2009/3/4 0:19:51)