117The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
'Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores.'
The business manager of Valu-Mart (VM) stores suggests store more home office machines and office supplies to make the department the most profitable components. The reasoning behind the proposal is that a recent survey finds many respondents have to take more work home than before, so the demand of such products would increase and if the department has sufficient supply, it would make profits on the good opportunity and turnaround the past sales record. Although the action may work to some extent, the logic and its conclusion is suffering from several fallacies.
First of all, the scientificality* of the survey methods and results is doubtful. There is neither introduction of the sampling employed in this survey, nor fairness of the questionnaire or interview, the possibility of the survey bias can not be ruled out. And statement of the respondents that they are required to take more work home from workplace is only a subjective claim, not a statistical judgment and is not strong enough to support the survey findings.
Assume the results in the survey are justified, the deduction of increased demands in home office supplies and office supplies is not guaranteed. In today's information age, much office work is carried out on the computers and many companies have realized the no-paper administrative. Actually, many employees can only bring some electronic files to home to continue their work, and in the circumstance of urgency they tend to use internet or intranet to collect information needed and communicate with the office via emails. Because of the timing of home working is not office hour, the chances of sending fax or printing out documents for clients are slim. So the demand of mentioned supplies would remain unchanged, or only climb slightly. How can the manager promise a great increase?
Even the total market of the supplies would have a dramatic improvement, why the clients go to VM? The past sales records indicate its low market share, in the market growth VM are not definitely enjoy the growth. The increased clients demand may be taken by its rivals, or the market is so profitable that attracts more competitors take part in the war. Then finally, the average margin would decline, and the total profit also under expectation. More worse is, the stocks may be obsolete, and become a burden for their warehousing expenses and the maintenance costs
The manager should study carefully that why the department is not good at the segment, the strength and weakness should be scrutinized as well as the opportunity and the threats. Thus find a viable way to improve the performance of the department and avoid further mistaken decision.
*这里想表达科学性,但不知改怎么说,这个词在word里是红色显示有拼写错误。
[ Last edited by pjgengsha on 2005-8-8 at 19:58 ]作者: pjgengsha 时间: 2005-8-9 09:00:39
The business manager of Valu-Mart (VM) stores suggests store more home office machines and office supplies to make the department the most profitable components. The reasoning behind the proposal is that a recent survey finds many respondents have to take more work home than before, so the demand of such products would increase and if the department has sufficient supply, it would make profits on the good opportunity and turnaround the past sales record. Although the action may work to some extent, the logic and its conclusion is suffering from several fallacies.
First of all, the scientificality* of the survey methods and results is doubtful. There is neither introduction of the sampling employed in this survey, nor fairness of the questionnaire or interview, the possibility of the survey bias can not be ruled out. And statement of the respondents that they are required to take more work home from workplace is only a subjective claim, not a statistical judgment and is not strong enough to support the survey findings.
Assume (assuming?)the results in the survey are justified, the deduction of increased demands in home office supplies and office supplies is not guaranteed. In today's information age, much office work is carried out on the computers and many companies have realized the no-paper administrative. Actually, many employees can only bring some electronic files to home to continue their work, and in the circumstance of urgency they tend to use internet or intranet to collect information needed and communicate with the office via emails. Because of the timing of home working is not office hour, the chances of sending fax or printing out documents for clients are slim. So the demand of mentioned supplies would remain unchanged, or only climb slightly. How can the manager promise a great increase?(即使有增长,可以持续多久,如果很短暂,那么就没有意义增加)
Even(IF?)the total market of the supplies would have a dramatic improvement, why the clients go to VM? The past sales records indicate its low market share, in the market growth VM are not definitely enjoy the growth. The increased clients demand may be taken by its rivals, or the market is so profitable that attracts more competitors take part in the war. Then finally, the average margin would decline, and the total profit also under expectation. More worse is, the stocks may be obsolete, and become a burden for their warehousing expenses and the maintenance costs
The manager should study carefully that why the department is not good at the segment, the strength and weakness should be scrutinized as well as the opportunity and the threats. Thus find a viable way to improve the performance of the department and avoid further mistaken decision. (是不是少了什么)
The business manager of Valu-Mart (VM) stores suggests store more home office machines and office supplies to make the department the most profitable components前后但复数不对应?. The reasoning behind the proposal is that a recent survey finds many respondents have to take more work home than before, so the demand of such products would increase and if the department has sufficient supply, it would make profits on the good opportunity and turnaround the past sales record. Although the action may work to some extent, the logic and its conclusion is suffering from several fallacies.
First of all, the scientificality of the survey methods and results is doubtful. There is neither introduction of the sampling employed in this survey, nor fairness of the questionnaire or interview, the possibility of the survey bias can not be ruled out. And statement of the respondents that they are required to take more work home from workplace is only a subjective claim, not a statistical judgment and is not strong enough to support the survey findings.
AssumeAssuming the results in the survey are justified, the deduction of increased demands in home office supplies and office supplies is not guaranteed. In today's information age, much office work is carried out on the computers and many companies have realized the no-paper administrative. Actually, many employees can only bring some electronic files to home to continue their work, and in the circumstance of urgency they tend to use internet or intranet to collect information needed and communicate with the office via emails. Because of the timing of home working is not office hour, the chances of sending fax or printing out documents for clients are slim. So the demand of mentioned supplies would remain unchanged, or only climb slightly. How can the manager promise a great increase?
EvenEven if the total market of the supplies would have a dramatic improvement, why the clients go to VM? The past sales records indicate its low market share, in the market growth VM are not definitely enjoy the growth. The increased clients demand may be taken by its rivals, or the market is so profitable that attracts more competitors take part in the war. Then finally, the average margin would decline, and the total profit also under expectation. More worse is, the stocks may be obsolete, and become a burden for their warehousing expenses and the maintenance costs
The manager should study carefully that why the department is not good at the segment, the strength and weakness should be scrutinized as well as the opportunity and the threats. Thus find a viable way to improve the performance of the department and avoid further mistaken decision.
谢谢大家拍我,这是我刚才自己改的。不过我不会弄颜色。
Assume VS Assuming?
我想表达的是let's assume而不是伴随状态,但不知是否可以省掉,另外这么说是不是很幼稚?
2005-8-9 second revision.
The business manager of Valu-Mart (VM) stores suggests store more home office machines and office supplies to make the department the most profitable component. The reasoning behind the proposal is that a recent survey finds many respondents have to take more work home than before, so the demand of such products would increase and if the department has sufficient supply, it would make profits on the good opportunity and turnaround the past sales record. Although the action may work to some extent, the logic and its conclusion is suffering from several fallacies.
First of all, both the scientificity of the survey methods and results are doubtful. There is neither introduction of the sampling employed in this survey, nor fairness of the questionnaire or interview, so the possibility of the survey bias can not be ruled out. And statement of the respondents that they are required to take more work home from workplace is only a subjective claim instead of a factual certainty or a statistical judgment and is not solid enough to support the survey findings.
Assume the results in the survey are justified, the deduction of increased demands in home office supplies and office supplies is not guaranteed. In today's information age, much office work is carried out on the computers and many companies have realized the no-paper administration. Actually, many employees can only bring several electronic files home to continue their work, and in the circumstance of urgency they tend to use internet or intranet to collect information needed and communicate with the office via emails. Because of the timing of home working is not office hour, the chances of sending fax or printing out documents for clients are slim. So the demand of mentioned supplies would remain unchanged, or merely climb slightly. How can the manager promise a great increase?
Even if the total market of the supplies would have a dramatic improvement, why the clients go to VM? The past sales records indicate its low market share, in the market growth VM is not definitely enjoy the growth. The increased clients demand may be taken by its rivals, or the market is so profitable that attracts more competitors to take part in the war. Then finally, the average margin would decline, and the total profits also become under expectation. The worse is, the stocks may be obsolete, and turn out to be a burden for their warehousing expenses and the maintenance costs
The manager should study carefully that why the department is not good at the segment, the strength and weakness should be scrutinized as well as the opportunity and the threats. Thus find a viable way to improve the performance of the department and avoid further mistaken decision.