1006G[REBORN FROM THE ASHES组]备考日记 by kulewy531（为了未来，为了永恒）

kulewy531UID：2603031

argument4 第一篇限时成功的A,接着伸手要红包

限时成功!最好的新年礼物了,虽然写的不怎么样,不过时间还长着哪... TOPIC: ARGUMENT4 - The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site. "Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams." WORDS: 365         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009/1/25 16:57:13 In this argument, the author draws a conclusion; one should choose Adams Realty (AR) rather than Fitch Realty (FR), by a series of deductions. However, to my understanding, the suggestion is based on invalid analogies and incogent evidences. First and foremost, the author emphasizes that AR owns more real estate agents than FR possesses. But he failed to consider possibilities that more workers are by no means more work efficient. The workers in FR may share comfortable work environment, enough human touch, and surrounded by optimistic attitude which are rarely in AR. Therefore, workers in FR have more motivations to urge themselves to higher profits. Furthermore, the cost of human resource management and operation must be taken in to consideration to judge the final profits. It is highly probably that AR spent more budgets on workers' salaries and daily water rate and electric charge, which potentially influenced its profits.  （第一段的几个分论点用力似乎太平均了，应该突出一个详细批驳） 关于“分红高企业就好”的说法也应该加以批驳 Moreover, high price of home sales may not lead to high profits either. As it is known to us all, profit is produced by sell price minus cost. So besides the price of building, we have to consider another aspect -- production and operation cost. Perhaps FR has many long-term suppliers, and they built mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation together. Hence the prices of materials of FR are much lower than the ones of AR, Which play a crucial role in determining final profits. So the conclusion: AR is more powerful than FR is doubtful. Finally, the author failed to consider the change of price and requirement in real estate market. Maybe customers were poorer than they are now, or probably by the development of the town, the population explosion is emerged. Thus the needs of apartment are obviously elevated, which, result in fast sale. So, the suggestion that buying AR's building lead to quick sell of house is not as cogent as it seems to be. As is mentioned above, the conclusion is not persuasive to me. The author has to furnish more effective evidences such as the annual bulletins of two companies and more background information just like comparing the economy now to it was ten years ago to readers.

kulewy531UID：2603031

argument169 【FF小组】 by duyuan3377 第二次限时模考

TOPIC: ARGUMENT169 - The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University. "Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers." WORDS: 421         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-12-7 16:38:55 In the argument, the arguer recommends that we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire in order to attract the most gifted teachers and researches and improve the morale of our entire staff. The argument is mainly based on some studies conducted by Bronston College. Although the recommendation sounds indeed reasonable at first sight, a series of logical flaws may undermine the argument. The threshold problem of this argument is that the studies conducted by Bronston College might not be reliable despite of the similar location.  The information about the studies is too vague. Neither does the arguer provide information concerning the process of these studies, nor does the arguer offer any evidence that these studies are reliable. Without enough evidence about the study, it is impossible to assess the validity and reliability of these studies.（还有一点，教授不代表整个staff） In addition, whether the spouse's job offer is the main factor influencing the most largely on the most gifted teachers and researches is questionable. The arguer unfairly assumes that the spouse's job offer is an attractive condition for most gifted teachers and researchers and that it is difficult for their spouses to find proper jobs. However, there is no guarantee that this is the case, nor does the arguer provide any evidence to substantiate the assumptions. It is highly possible that the most gifted teachers and researches focus more on the scientific environment and the level of their fellows instead of their spouse's job. Besides, their spouses might also be capable enough to find a better job in companies or government rather than Pierce University. Without proving the assumptions, the arguer cannot convince me to accept his/her recommendation.（中间一段写得有点笼统，可以采用层进的方式，先详细说教授追求的不是配偶的工作，再详细说即使希望配偶在身边工作也不一定需要学校帮助） Last but not least, the arguer groundlessly assumes that this recommendation would be effective to improve morale of our entire staff. As the arguer mentions, the offer is only for each new faculty member we hire. If so, the old faculty member might feel it is not fair for them and their spouses. As a result, even though the method is able to attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers, it undermines the morale of our old staff. In sum, the argument lack credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence to prove the reliability of these studies and revise the recommendation in order to fulfill its function of improving the morale of our entire staff. 总体来说有模板化倾向，第二段层次不够清晰

kulewy531UID：2603031

TOPIC: ARGUMENT188 - A new report suggests that men and women experience pain very differently from one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing pain medications. When researchers administered the same dosage of kappa opioids-a painkiller-to 28 men and 20 women who were having their wisdom teeth extracted, the women reported feeling much less pain than the men, and the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women. This research suggests that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. In addition, researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women. WORDS: 424          TIME: 00:28:34          DATE: 2008-12-1 15:54:44 (已经放到word里面改过错别字) In the argument, the arguer draw a conclusion that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. Besides, the arguer also suggests that researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women. The argument is mainly based on a research about 28 men and 20 women having their wisdom teeth extracted. However, although the conclusion sounds indeed reasonable at first thought, several logical flaws may seriously undermine this argument. First of all, the arguer commits a fallacy of "hasty generalization". Firstly, the research only tests one kind of painkiller-- kappa opioids without testing other kinds of painkiller's effect. Based on a specific example, it is logically unsounded to make suggestion for all medications. It is very possible that other kind of medications might be completely different from kappa opioids, they might have the same effect on men and women, or might be more effective on men than women. （没有事先指明在批驳那个观点）Secondly, the result of the research is limitedly based on one kind of situation--extracting the wisdom teeth. It is likely that this situation is not typical in general and in other cases kappa opioids might have the same effect on men and women. In fact, in the face of such limited evidence, it is fallacious to draw any conclusion at all.   Moreover, the research cited by the arguer is too vague to be informative. The number of the subjects, 28 men and 20 women, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to draw any reliable conclusion. Also, the sample might be unrepresentative of the most people. It is possible that the women in the group are more health than the men. Without better evidence that the research is statistically reliable, the arguer cannot convince me to accept his conclusion. Last but not least, the arguer assumes that kappa opioids are more effective to women than men, according to the evidence that the women reported felling much less pain than the men. But it is not sufficient to substantiate the assumption. It is entirely possible that the women might own more powerful ability to stand the pain or the men might express the pain openly. To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to do more scientific and substantial research. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the reference of other medications. 题干中有两个结论，我认为应该分开陈述，并且重点放在前一个上。

本文的行文逻辑不够清晰，我认为可以这样组织文章。
1质疑例子的合理性
（1）样本大小
（2）男女体重不同，但使用剂量相同
（3）体质等其他因素不同
2批驳女性在任何时候都应该使用 kappa opioids
（1）没有比较其他麻药
（2）没有比较其他疼痛
（3）副作用，麻药有适用范围
（4）the easing of pain 时间长也不是好事
3质疑所有药都需要重新评估
（1）这只是个例
（2）有没有实际意义，麻药只要可以止疼即可

kulewy531UID：2603031

argument80~限时完成~还有三天考试~给点建设性意见~斑竹空的话帮忙拍拍~

TOPIC: ARGUMENT80 - The following appeared as an editorial in a health magazine. "Clormium 5 is an odorless, tasteless, and generally harmless industrial by-product that can enter the water supply. A preliminary study has linked cooking with water containing clormium 5 to an increased incidence of allergies and skin rashes. Tests of the drinking water in several areas have revealed the presence of clormium 5. Although it is possible to remove clormium 5 from water, the costs of routine testing and purification are higher than many communities can afford. Therefore, in order to prevent allergies and skin rashes, communities that cannot afford to rid their drinking water of clormium 5 should replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers." WORDS: 397          TIME: 00:28:25          DATE: 2008-11-6 19:56:41 Before the implementation the recommendation in the argument above, there are several evidence（不能用several修饰evidence） which need to be reexamined in some other aspects, as discussed below. To begin with, the result of study is open to doubt. Firstly, the argument above provide no detail or information concerning how many people participate the study and how they are selected. Common sense tells us that the smaller the sample size is, the less reliable and credible the result of study will be. Perhaps, only 100 people participate the study, if this is the case, this small sample size is insufficient and imprecise to draw any conclusion. Also due to lacking of information concerning how people are selected to participate the study, we cannot conclude whether the result of study is representative enough. Secondly, the study overlooks other factors which can lead to allergies and skin rashes. Perhaps, due to eating some unclean food, some of the participants get allergies and skin rashes. If this is the case, the conclusion renders its incredibility due to ignore other factors which can lead the same symptoms, such as skin rashes.（这是个小错误不用这样大段的批驳） In addition, even if the result of the study is substantiated, it does not follow that presence of clormium 5 will definitely cause allergies and skin rashes. Perhaps, the amount of clormium 5 in the drinking water is little so that it is insufficient to cause people sick. Perhaps, some other materials exist in the drinking water too, which prohibit the effect of clormium 5 to cause people sick. Without ruling out all these possibilities above, the conclusion of argument is groundless（无根据的） to me.（题中只是说会增加风险，感觉没有必要花一段来写） Last not the least, even if the foregoing assumptions are all substantiated, it does not follow that replacing drinking fountains in public buildings with bottled-water coolers will be the best solution. The argument overlooks other methods to deal with drinking water containing clormium 5, which maybe more economical and effective. Perhaps, adding some medicines into the water can offset the effects of clormium 5. Further, the argument does not provide any information concerning bottled-water. Perhaps, these bottled-water still contains clormium 5. In this sense, the recommendation amounts to nothing. In conclusion, the argument above fails to convince me. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide more detail about the preliminary study above and other methods which can be used for dealing with the drink water containing clormium 5. 本文的批驳重点选的不好，有模板化倾向

kulewy531UID：2603031

以上是部分Arguement的详细阅读心得

kulewy531UID：2603031

限时写ISSUE130遭遇Writers‘ Block
郁闷！

kulewy531UID：2603031

我修改后的翻译
145.A new study collected data that shows that people who snore are more likely to gain weight than are people who do not snore. It is well known that many people who snore also stop breathing frequently during the night for a few seconds, a condition called sleep apnea. The interruption of breathing wakes the person-often so briefly that the waking goes unnoticed-and can leave the person too tired during the day to exercise. Anyone who snores, therefore, should try to eat less than the average person and to exercise more.
一项新的调查所收集的数据显示打呼噜的人比不打呼噜的人更容易长胖。众所周知，很多打呼噜的人也会在夜间呼吸频繁地停顿几秒钟，这种现象被称为睡眠呼吸中断（sleep apnea）。这种呼吸停顿会导致人醒来--通常十分短暂以至于不被察觉--并且会使人们在白天很疲倦而不想锻炼。因此，所有打呼噜的人都应该尝试比普通人少吃并多锻炼。

146.
The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.


"The librarians in our town's school system have reported that the number of trips that our students make to their school library on a voluntary basis has decreased significantly in recent years. For example, the average seventh-grade student visited the school library five times last year, but four of those visits were part of required classroom activities. This shows that our students are reading less than in the past. To address this problem, our town needs to improve the atmosphere of the libraries so that they will be comfortable places in which to work. If students view the libraries as uncomfortable, then they are unlikely to want to spend much time there."


如下文字摘自当地报纸的一篇社论。

我市学校系统的图书馆管理员报告说近年来我们的学生主动去学校图书馆的次数显著下降。举例来说， 7年级学生去年平均去图书馆5次，但其中有4次是教学活动所要求的。这表明我们的学生读书比以前少了。为处理这一问题，我市需要改善图书馆的气氛使其变成一个舒适的工作和学习（work）场所。如果学生认为图书馆不舒服，他们将不太可能想在这里呆很长时间。

147.
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

以下文字摘自某经济学杂志的一篇社论。


尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了，最近一项对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家，他们认为一款游戏最重要的特点是什么。根据调查结果，玩家更喜欢那些图象逼真的游戏。运行这类游戏需要最先进的电脑。Whirlwind刚刚面向最热衷于游戏的10－25岁年轻人发布了几款这样的游戏，并开展了大力的广告宣传。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月中猛增。

请大家指正！

kulewy531UID：2603031

175. The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of enterville. "All students should be required to take the driver's education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some other instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem." 以下文字摘自一封写给Centerville 市公立学校管理委员会(the school board)的信 Centerville高中的所有学生都应该被要求参加驾驶员教育课程。在过去两年中，发生在Centerville里和它周围的一些交通事故都与青少年驾驶者有关。由于，在Centerville当地，许多父母抱怨他们太忙没有时间教他们的孩子驾车，为了保证这些青少年安全驾车，一些其它的指导是必需的。虽然Centerville两个驾驶培训学校，但是经济比较拮据的家长负担不起驾校的费用。因此，一个由高中强制执行的有效计划是这个严重问题唯一的解决办法。

176. The following is a memorandum from the sales director to the president of the Healthy-and-Good food company. "A recent study indicates that Venadial, a new margarine currently produced only in the country of Alta, actually reduces cholesterol levels. Derived from the resin of pine trees, Venadial works by activating a metabolic response that is not yet well understood. However, cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily, and the risk of heart attack by one-third. In addition, the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on their shelves. Therefore, if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time."

以下文字摘自the Healthy-and-Good food company公司的销售顾问写给公司主管的备忘录。 近期一个研究表明，目前只在Alta国家生产的一种新的人造黄油Venadial确实降低了（人的）胆固醇水平。Venadial是从松树的树脂上提炼出来的，通过激起一种还没有被充分了解的新陈代谢反应而发生作用。即便如此，在参加研究的志愿者当中，每天食用Venadial的人中胆固醇减低10%~15%，心脏病发病率下降了三分之一。这种新的人造黄油非常受欢迎以至于在Alta的商店中一上柜就迅速被一抢而空。因此，如果我们公司获得Venadial的全球独家销售权，我们的利润必定能够在很短的时间内稳步提高。 177. The following is a letter that recently appeared in the Oak City Gazette, a local newspaper. "Membership in Oak City's Civic Club-a club whose primary objective is to discuss local issues-should continue to be restricted to people who live in Oak City. People who work in Oak City but who live elsewhere cannot truly understand the business and politics of the city. It is important to restrict membership to city residents because only residents pay city taxes and therefore only residents understand how the money could best be used to improve the city. At any rate, restricting membership in this way is unlikely to disappoint many of the nonresidents employed in Oak City, since neighboring Elm City's Civic Club has always had an open membership policy, and only twenty-five nonresidents have joined Elm City's Club in the last ten years."

以下自the Oak City Gazette这份当地报纸中的一封信。文字摘
Oak City's Civic Club，一个以讨论当地事务为主要目的俱乐部，必须继续坚持只有当地居民才可以成为会员的限制。那些在OC工作但居住在其它地方的人们不能够真正地理解当地的经济和政治。只有当地居民才可以成为会员的限制，因为只有当地居民纳向城市纳税并且只有当地居民明白这些钱如何才能够最好地被应用在促进城市发展的方面。无论如何，以这种方式限制会员资格不大可能使很多在OC工作在其它地方居住的人们失望，因为临近的Elm城市的Elm City's Civic Club一直都是持开放的会员资格政策，但在过去十年，只有25个的非本地居民加入Elm City's Civic Club。

kulewy531UID：2603031

刚才看错题号误翻译了两题，一并发上来，麻烦斑竹啦！
1.The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

下面一段话摘自前Nature’s Way主席撰写的一份备忘录中。Nature’s Way是一家贩售保健食品及其他保健产品的连锁店。
“最近的经验表明，在居民高度关注健康生活的地区，我们的连锁店最能赢利。因此，我们要在Plainsville建新的连锁店。原因是在Plainsville有很多这样居民。Plainsville的（merchants report）商业报告还显示跑鞋和运动服的销售也处于空前的（all-time）高点。当地的一家5年前即将倒闭的健康俱乐部的会员数量比以往都要多，而且举重锻炼和有氧运动课程总是满员。我们可以预见到还有一群潜在的消费者——Plainsvill的在校学生（schoolchildren）。他们被要求参加fitness for life计划。这项计划强调少年时期的（regular exercise）按时锻炼的益处。”

2.The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting."  
下面一段话摘自一封某Deerhaven Acres的 “私房屋主”委员会（a committee of homeowner）给当地私房屋主们的一封信：
“七年前，私房屋主在临近的Brookville社区采取了一系列对社区房屋庭院布置和房屋外墙颜色的限制。从那以后，平均地产价值（property values）变为了原来的三倍。为了使Deerhaven Acres的地产价值上升，我们需要采取一套我们自己的对社区房屋庭院布置和房屋外墙颜色的限制措施。

kulewy531UID：2603031

A special report on climate change and the carbon economy
Getting warmer
Dec 3rd 2009 From The Economist print edition
So far the effort to tackle global warming has achieved little. Copenhagen offers the chance to do better, says Emma Duncan (interviewed here)
Illustration by M. Morgenstern
THE mountain bark beetle is a familiar pest in the forests of British Columbia. Its population rises and falls unpredictably, destroying clumps (A thick grouping, as of trees or bushes) of pinewood as it peaks which then regenerate as the bug recedes. But Scott Green, who studies forest ecology at the University of Northern British Columbia, says the current outbreak is “unprecedented in recorded history: a natural background-noise disturbance has become a major outbreak. We’re looking at the loss of 80% of our pine forest cover.”* Other parts of North America have also been affected, but the damage in British Columbia is particularly severe, and particularly troubling in a province whose economy is dominated by timber.
Three main explanations for this disastrous outbreak suggest themselves. It could be chance. Populations do fluctuate dramatically and unexpectedly. It could be the result of management practices. British Columbia’s woodland is less varied than it used to be, which helps a beetle that prefers pine. Or it could be caused by the higher temperatures that now prevail in northern areas, allowing beetles to breed more often in summer and survive in greater numbers through the winter.
The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which the United Nations adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, is now 17 years old. Its aim was “to achieve stabilisation of greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic（人为的）interference with the climate system”. The Kyoto protocol, which set about realising those aims, was signed in 1997 and came into force in 2005. Its first commitment period runs out in 2012, and implementing（执行） a new one is expected to take at least three years, which is why the 15th conference of the parties to the UNFCCC that starts in Copenhagen on December 7th is such a big deal. Without a new global agreement, there is not much chance of averting serious climate change.
Since the UNFCCC was signed, much has changed, though more in the biosphere than the human sphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the body set up to establish a scientific consensus on what is happening, heat waves, droughts, floods and serious hurricanes have increased in frequency over the past few decades; it reckons those trends are all likely or very likely to have been caused by human activity and will probably continue. Temperatures by the end of the century might be up by anything from 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC.
In most of the world the climate changes to date are barely perceptible or hard to pin on warming. In British Columbia and farther north the effects of climate change are clearer. Air temperatures in the Arctic are rising about twice as fast as in the rest of the world. The summer sea ice is thinning and shrinking. The past three years have seen the biggest losses since proper record-keeping started in 1979. Ten years ago scientists reckoned that summer sea-ice would be gone by the end of this century. Now they expect it to disappear within a decade or so.
Since sea-ice is already in the water, its melting has little effect on sea levels. Those are determined by temperature (warmer water takes up more room) and the size of the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. The glaciers in south-eastern Greenland have picked up speed. Jakobshavn Isbrae, the largest of them, which drains（翻译为集中） 6% of Greenland’s ice, is now moving at 12km a year—twice as fast as it was when the UNFCCC was signed—and its “calving（裂冰） front”, where it breaks down into icebergs, has retreated by 20km in six years. That is part of the reason why the sea level is now rising at 3-3.5mm a year, twice the average annual rate in the 20th century.
As with the mountain bark beetle, it is not entirely clear why this is happening. The glaciers could be retreating because of one of the countless natural oscillations in the climate that scientists do not properly understand. If so, the glacial retreat could well stop, as it did in the middle of the 20th century after a 100-year retreat. But the usual causes of natural variability do not seem to explain the current trend, so scientists incline to the view that it is man-made. It is therefore likely to persist unless mankind starts to behave differently—and there is not much sign of that happening.
Carbon-dioxide emissions are now 30% higher than they were when the UNFCCC was signed 17 years ago. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 equivalent (carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases) reached 430 parts per million last year, compared with 280ppm before the industrial revolution. At the current rate of increase they could more than treble by the end of the century, which would mean a 50% risk of a global temperature increase of 5ºC. To put that in context, the current average global temperature is only 5ºC warmer than the last ice age. Such a rise would probably lead to fast-melting ice sheets, rising sea levels, drought, disease and collapsing agriculture in poor countries, and mass migration. But nobody really knows, and nobody wants to know.
Some scientists think that the planet is already on an irreversible journey to dangerous warming. A few climate-change sceptics think the problem will right itself. Either may be correct. Predictions about a mechanism as complex as the climate cannot be made with any certainty. But the broad scientific consensus is that serious climate change is a danger, and this newspaper believes that, as an insurance policy against a catastrophe that may never happen, the world needs to adjust its behaviour to try to avert that threat.
The problem is not a technological one. The human race has almost all the tools it needs to continue leading much the sort of life it has been enjoying without causing a net increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Industrial and agricultural processes can be changed. Electricity can be produced by wind, sunlight, biomass or nuclear reactors, and cars can be powered by biofuels and electricity. Biofuel engines for aircraft still need some work before they are suitable for long-haul flights, but should be available soon.
Nor is it a question of economics. Economists argue over the sums (see article), but broadly agree that greenhouse-gas emissions can be curbed（抑制） without flattening the world economy.
A hard sell
It is all about politics. Climate change is the hardest political problem the world has ever had to deal with. It is a prisoner’s dilemma, a free-rider problem and the tragedy of the commons all rolled into one. At issue is the difficulty of allocating the cost of collective action and trusting other parties to bear their share of the burden. At a city, state and national level, institutions that can resolve such problems have been built up over the centuries. But climate change has been a worldwide worry for only a couple of decades. Mankind has no framework for it. The UN is a useful talking shop, but it does not get much done.
The closest parallel is the world trading system. This has many achievements to its name(属于自己), but it is not an encouraging model. Not only is the latest round of negotiations mired（陷入泥潭） in difficulty, but the World Trade Organisation’s task is child’s play compared with climate change. The benefits of concluding trade deals are certain and accrue（自然增加） in the short term. The benefits of mitigating climate change are uncertain, since scientists are unsure of the scale and consequences of global warming, and will mostly accrue many years hence. The need for action, by contrast, is urgent.
The problem will be solved only if the world economy moves from carbon-intensive to low-carbon—and, in the long term, to zero-carbon—products and processes. That requires businesses to change their investment patterns. And they will do so only if governments give them clear, consistent signals. This special report will argue that so far this has not happened. The policies adopted to avoid dangerous climate change have been partly misconceived and largely inadequate. They have sent too many wrong signals and not enough of the right ones.
That is partly because of the way the Kyoto protocol was designed. By trying to include all the greenhouse gases in a single agreement, it has been less successful than the less ambitious Montreal protocol, which cut ozone-depleting gases fast and cheaply. By including too many countries in detailed negotiations, it has reduced the chances of agreement. And by dividing the world into developed and developing countries, it has deepened a rift that is proving hard to close. Ultimately, though, the international agreement has fallen victim to domestic politics. Voters do not want to bear the cost of their elected leaders’ aspirations, and those leaders have not been brave enough to push them.
Copenhagen represents a second chance to make a difference. The aspirations are high, but so are the hurdles. The gap between the parties on the two crucial questions—emissions levels and money—remains large. America’s failure so far to pass climate-change legislation means that a legally binding agreement will not be reached at the conference. The talk is of one in Bonn, in six months’ time, or in Mexico City in a year.
To suggest that much has gone wrong is not to denigrate（毁誉） the efforts of the many people who have dedicated two decades to this problem. For mankind to get even to the threshold of a global agreement is a marvel. But any global climate deal will work only if the domestic policies through which it is implemented are both efficient and effective. If they are ineffective, nothing will change. If they are inefficient, they will waste money. And if taxpayers decide that green policies are packed with pork, they will turn against them.
体会：
The reason why the environmental problem defies solution can be concluded that it is a complex prisoner’s dilemma which involves the relationships between the developed countries and the developing countries, the government and the citizens. The case significantly reflects the lack of credits around the world. Since that, the key to the solution is to establish the confident of various individuals, groups and nations. However, stable trusts, which can never be set up without fundamentals, are always connected to common interests. Consequently, to find out the potential benefits of environmental protection can serve as the best prelude of the play of promoting a zero-carbon-dioxide economy.

kulewy531UID：2603031

本来以为今天课少，可以补完作业。没想到被俗事所累，还是要熬夜赶工。
还有推荐大家去看看 TOPIC：科学技术对社会风俗和道德规范的作用深度
https://bbs.gter.net/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=1025176&page=1&extra=

kulewy531UID：2603031

71# kulewy531
电脑没电了！哎！

kulewy531UID：2603031

A special report on the world economy
The long climb

Oct 1st 2009 From The Economist print edition

The world economy is recovering from financial disaster. But it will not return to normal as we know it, says Simon Cox (interviewed here)

NEWPORT BEACH, California, is not a bad place to contemplate the future of the world economy. Its information office promises nine miles of pristine sand, fine dining for devoted epicureans and an atmosphere of laid-back sophistication. Yet students of economic turmoil (confusion, agitation) will find their subject matter conveniently close to hand. California’s unemployment rate has doubled to 12.2% since the start of 2008. Saddled with the worst credit rating in the country, the “Golden State” is cutting spending on schools, prisons and health care for the elderly, as well as closing parks and laying off staff for three days a month. It will pay its workers a day late at the end of the fiscal year so that the expense will show up in next year’s budget. Financial shenanigans are not the sole province of the banking industry.

Newport Beach is also the home of Pimco, the biggest bond manager in the world, which handles $840 billion on behalf of pension funds, universities and other clients. In May the company held its annual “Secular Forum”, in which it tries to peer five years into the economic future. After two days of rumination (comtemplation), Pimco’s laid-back sophisticates(这里是讽刺吗？) concluded that the financial markets may well “revert to mean”, which is a statistician’s way of saying that what comes down must go up. But the next five years will not resemble the five preceding the crisis. Not every change wrought by the financial breakdown will be reversed. The world economy is fitfully getting back to normal, but it will be a “new normal”.
Click here to find out more!

That phrase has caught on, even if people disagree about what it means. In the new normal, as defined by Pimco’s CEO, Mohamed El-Erian, growth will be subdued and unemployment will remain high. “The banking system will be a shadow of its former self,” and the securitization markets（证券化的市场）, which buy and sell marketable bundles of debt, will presumably be a shadow of a shadow. Finance will be costlier and investment weak, so the stock of physical capital, on which prosperity depends, will erode.

The crisis invited a forceful government entry into several of capitalism’s inner sanctums, such as banking, American carmaking and the commercial-paper（商业票据） market. Mr El-Erian worries that the state may overstay its welcome. In addition, national exchequers may start to feel some measure of the fiscal strain now hobbling California. America’s Treasury, in particular, must demonstrate that it is still a “responsible shepherd of other countries’ savings”.

The notion of a “new normal” is convincing, even if you do not agree with every particular. But some forecasters now harbour higher expectations. They think the economy will bounce back to its old self, almost as if nothing had happened. They draw inspiration from the work of the late Milton Friedman, who showed that in America deep recessions are generally followed by strong recoveries. He likened the economy to a piece of string stretched taut on a board. The more forcefully the string is plucked, the more sharply it snaps back.

Friedman’s piece of string represents the demand side of the economy: the sum of spending by households, firms, foreigners and the government. The rigid board symbolises the supply side. When spending is strong enough, the economy’s resources are fully employed, allowing it to realise its full potential. As the workforce grows, capital accumulates and technology advances, this limit expands over time.
String theory

In a recession demand falls short of supply, leaving a sorry trail of unemployed workers, shuttered factories and unexploited innovations. But when the recovery arrives, Friedman suggested, it is all the more forceful because these resources have been lying idle, waiting to be brought back into production. The economy can grow faster than normal for a period until it reaches the point where it would have been without the crisis, when it reaches its full potential again (see chart 1, scenario 1).

Friedman’s story is heartening, but it can come unstuck（松开） in two ways. If the shortfall in demand persists it can do lasting damage to supply, reducing the level of potential output (scenario 2) or even its rate of growth (scenario 3). If so, the economy will never recoup its losses, even after spending picks up again.

Why should a swing in spending do such lasting harm? In a recession firms shed labour and mothball（封存的） capital. If workers are left on the shelf too long, their skills will atrophy（萎缩） and their ties to the world of work will weaken. When spending revives, the recovery will leave them behind. Output per worker may get back to normal, but the rate of employment will not.

Something similar can happen to the economy’s assembly lines（生产线）, computer terminals and office blocks. If demand remains weak, firms will stop adding to this stock of capital and may scrap some of it. Capital will shrink to fit a lower level of activity. Moreover, if the financial system remains in disrepair, savings will flow haltingly to（stop flowing to） companies and the cost of capital will rise. Firms will therefore use less of it per unit of output.

The result is a lower ceiling on production. In the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, its researchers count the cost of 88 banking crises over the past four decades. They find that, on average, seven years after a bust（不理解） an economy’s level of output was almost 10% below where it would have been without the crisis.

This is an alarming gap. If replicated（repeat） in the years to come, it would blight（枯萎）the lives of the unemployed, diminish the fortunes of those in work and make the public debt harder to sustain. But even worse scenarios are possible. A financial breakdown could do lasting damage to the growth in potential output as well as to its level. Even when the economy begins to expand, it may not regain the same pace as before.

Financial crises can pose such a threat to national incomes because of the way they erode national wealth. From the start of 2008 to the spring of this year the crisis knocked $30 trillion off the value of global shares and $11 trillion off the value of homes, according to Goldman Sachs, an investment bank. At their worst, these losses amounted to about 75% of world GDP. But despite their enormous scale, it is not immediately obvious why these losses should cause a lasting decline in economic activity. Natural disasters also wipe out wealth by destroying buildings, possessions and infrastructure, but the economy rarely slows in their aftermath. On the contrary, output often picks up during a period of reconstruction. Why should a financial disaster be any different?

The answer lies on the other side of the balance-sheet. Before the crisis the overpriced assets held by banks and households were accompanied by vast debts. After the crisis their assets were shattered but their liabilities remained standing. As Irving Fisher, a scholar of the Depression, pointed out, “overinvestment and overspeculation（过分投资和投机）…would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money.”

Japan found this out to its cost in the 1990s after the bursting of a spectacular bubble in property and stock prices. For a “lost decade” from 1992 the economy stagnated, never recovering the growth rates posted in the 1980s. Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo calls Japan’s ordeal a “balance-sheet recession”.

The typical post-war recession begins when the flow of spending in the economy puts a strain on its resources, forcing prices upwards. Central banks raise interest rates to slow spending to a more sustainable pace. Once inflation has subsided, the authorities are free to turn the taps back on.

But in a “balance-sheet recession”, what must be corrected is not a flow but a stock. After the bubble burst, Japan’s companies were left with liabilities that far exceeded their assets. Rather than file for bankruptcy, they set about paying down their stock of debt to a manageable level. This was a protracted slog which, by Mr Koo’s reckoning, did not finish until 2005. In the meantime Japan’s economy stagnated. By 2002 its output was almost 23% below its pre-crisis trajectory.

Since Pimco’s forum concluded in May, the world economy has palpably improved. In many ways the new normal is beginning to look a lot like the old, vindicating Friedman’s plucking model. China is outpacing expectations. Goldman Sachs is making hay. The premium banks must pay to borrow overnight from each other is now below 0.25%, the level Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, once described as “normal”. Companies in Europe and America are selling bonds at a furious pace. A few months ago financial newspapers were debating the future of capitalism. Now they are merely discussing the future of capital requirements. Shock has given way to relief.
The persistence of debt

But the relief is likely to be short-lived. Just over a year ago, the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, the world economy fell off a precipice. When you are falling, you do not look up. Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb.

This special report will argue that although a “new normal” for the world economy is now in sight, it will be different from the old normal in a number of ways. Demand in rich countries will remain weak and emerging economies will not be able to compensate. The report will explain why many governments will have to keep their stimulus packages going for longer than expected, or face entrenched unemployment that will permanently lower their economic potential. Public debt will rise so that private debt can fall. The banks, the report will show, will remain cautious about lending again, which will slow up the recovery but also make companies more careful about their investment; and the securitisation markets that became so fashionable during the boom will recede, though not disappear altogether.

A persistent shortfall in demand will weigh on supply. By the time this crisis is over, as many as 25m people may have lost their jobs in the 30 rich countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The danger is that several million may never regain them. The mobilisation of capital will be fitful as the financial system copes with past mistakes and impending regulation. The travails of finance, in turn, may prevent the recovering economy from backing and exploiting innovations.

Like Japan’s bubble years, the years that led to the global financial crisis have left a heavy legacy of debt on the balance-sheets of banks and households, especially in Britain and America. It is this legacy that allows past losses to depress future gains. Fisher, again, put it best: “I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt.” There is no better example of that than American consumers.

生词归类：

表衰退、萎缩意思的词语：Atrophy, decline, diminish, recede, weaken, shrink, blight

表停滞、被遏制意思的词语：Stagnate, subside，mothball（这个有点勉强）

表影响、加重意思的词语：saddled，weigh on

Comments:

One of my teachers, a professor of Tulane University, once introduced a theory called “bubble bath” on financial crisis, which he claimed to be his own invention. In his speculation, a financial crisis to a society is the same as a baby to a baby, which washes clean the dirt on its body and keeps it from fatal diseases. During the crisis, improper regulations and weak enterprises were washed out and new suitable rules were adopted, and in this way, the world’s economy progress.
According to his study, he asserted that Japanese’s living standard ha improved greatly since the 1992 crisis, though the country’s GDP remained still. In the light of his views, the world is more likely to getting back to “new normal”

kulewy531UID：2603031

America's health-care bill

Nearer and nearer

Dec 21st 2009 From Economist.com

A procedural(程序上的) vote in America's Senate brings Barack Obama's health-care reforms closer


IT NOW looks certain that Barack Obama will get what he wanted for Christmas—a health-care reform bill passed out of the Senate, probably just a few hours before Santa begins his rounds. Republicans, who have been fighting tooth-and-nail(拼命) to block passage of the bill seem to have given up the fight, and have given warning instead(这个instead的位置好诡异啊) that this will be a wish that he comes to regret.

Shortly after 1am on Monday December 21st, the health bill cleared the first, and the most difficult, of the procedural hurdles（障碍） it has to leap in order to secure passage through the Senate. Technically only a motion to end debate on a “manager's amendment” put together by the Senate's majority leader, Harry Reid, what the vote really represented was a crucial exercise in nose-counting（“数鼻子”——人口调查）. The result was a vote on precisely partisan lines, with all 40 Republicans opposed, and all 58 Democrats plus the two independents who are grouped with them voting in favour. Since 60 votes is the precise number needed to avoid a filibuster, there was no room for error whatsoever, the reason why the procedural motion had taken so long. But with all 60 members of the “Democratic caucus（利益集团）” now signed up, the final vote, on Christmas Eve, looks like a formality.

From the point of view of the Democrats, this victory has come at a high price. The health bill has been stripped（剥去） of something very dear to many of them: a “public option” of a government-backed insurance scheme that would compete with private insurers in order, supposedly, to keep costs down and guarantee access. The version of the bill already passed by the House of Representatives does contain just such a public option, one of several reasons why final passage of a reconciled bill is still a way off. Some Democrats hope, however, that a public option can be added later on, after the initial bill has gone into effect.

Still, the Senate version does tick most Democratic boxes; it obliges everyone to have health-insurance, and sets out a generous system of subsides to help the uninsured obtain coverage, along with a system of government-regulated exchanges that should encourage competition among private insurers. It fines employers who do not offer health cover to their workers. And it makes it illegal for insurers to refuse people coverage on the basis of pre-existing medical conditions, as well as putting strict limits on the way that premiums are allowed to increase with age. The hope is that tens of millions of Americans currently without coverage will now be able to get it, and many tens of millions more, who have insurance but fear losing it through redundancy or ill-health, will have those worries lifted from their shoulders.

Republicans, however, hate the bill, mostly on the ground of cost. The advertised price-tag of the Senate bill is a bit under $900 billion over the next ten years, but Republicans contend that the numbers will be much higher than that, as the cost of subsidies has been underestimated and predicted savings will not materialise. Even at the stated number, this is a large bill at a time when America is running huge deficits that it urgently needs to tackle. The Senate bill is "paid for", but only in the sense that it provides for large charges on the most expensive private insurance policies, and because it factors in deep cuts to Medicare the health-insurance scheme for the elderly. Republicans say these will never be enacted. Past history provides them with evidence to back up that claim.

Less politically involved observers also note that it is unprecedented for such a substantive and expensive bill to have been forced through Congress on such a narrow vote. The bill passed the House on a margin of just five votes, and in the Senate it has no safety margin. With no bipartisan support at all, Democrats will be held solely responsible if the reform turns out to be a disappointment. Some studies have suggested that private insurance premiums could rise substantially in response to the new burdens being placed on insurers.

Completion of work on the bill is by no means a formality, though it does now look more or less certain that the Senate will vote the bill out before Christmas. The next difficulty will come in producing a single “reconciled” version from the very different bills that the Senate and House have produced; that reconciled bill then has to go back for final clearance by both chambers. The public option is one big stumbling block. It is clear that the Senate cannot pass any version of a bill that contains a public option, so the House will have to give ground, which is going to require a lot of presidential arm-twisting in January. And the two bills are funded in very different ways, one with a tax on the rich, the other with an insurance-policy surcharge. As of today though, health-care reform, expensive and imperfect though it is, is looking a lot more likely.

Comments：
As conservative party members, Publicans always approach an issue from the aspect of individualism. On the other hand, Democrats focus more on public wealth. The conflicts of these two parties compose the political map of the nation. Obviously, these conflicts are suddenly stimulated by the financial crisis, which symbolizes redistributions of social wealth. Both Democrats and Publicans are eager to maximize their own interest during the crucial periods, so the tension between the two parties is strained.

zhengchangdianUID：2563082

看了一下大侠的备考日志，好多Argument啊，你快考了么？加油吧！:lol