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本帖最后由 家家☆yoonjae 于 2009-6-27 16:00 编辑
Argument 6
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Grounding on the obvious geographic advantage of the planned jazz club and then synthesizing the three circumstances sustain the popularity of jazz music, as well as the nationwide study which indicates the expense of the typical jazz fan, the author concludes that opening a new jazz club in Monroe can earn handsome profits. Although his statement looks logically at first glance, we can easily find out several flaws of his supporting evidences.
Basically, geographic factor is not the unique determinant which cause people to choose a club. The author emphasized the proposed jazz club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself because the nearest jazz club was 65 miles away; however, this is not such cogent. The long distance of the nearest jazz club doesn’t mean there is no other kind of club which also plays jazz music even it is not a special jazz club. Those jazz fans probably be accustomed to play in those clubs they haunted where not prohibit jazz music. And even if the new special jazz club was built up, they may still prefer to stay at the old places because of familiar environment and familiar guests who became their friends during past years. Besides, music quality, management, decoration, alcohol & beverages, etc. all these factors can affect a person choose his favorite club. Therefore, whether the new jazz music club can attract all jazz fans does not merely depend on its location.
Moreover, those three circumstances which the author mentioned cannot bolster his conclusion, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, that steady-steadily. Let’s retrospect the first evidence he cited, over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer; this amount perhaps means a lot of the successful organized event but means less to show the number of local jazz fans because there might be majority who came from other places. Maybe Monroe is a famous tourist attraction, its fabulous views attract a huge number of people come to visit every summer, and then visitors attend the jazz festival as fun of their journeys; alternatively, Monroe’s jazz festival is nationwide well-known and always attract a lot of jazz fans attend this event. Meanwhile, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe also couldn’t support jazz is popular in this area, according to our common sense, those famous people usually like to choose places where are distant from their fanatical fans; thus, Monroe even probably has less jazz fans than other areas. In the same way, we couldn’t find the close connection between jazz’s popularity and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly'; several reasons may cause the result of highest-rated, such as low quality of other radio programs at the same time of 'Jazz Nightly' in Monroe, or this program is broadcasting during prime time and would have more audiences who listen to radio routinely, etc. In short, it’s not that reasonable for us to take it for granted of high popularity then high-rated. Even if jazz was really very hot in Monroe as the author concluded, we cannot find the link of popularity and expense; a person may like jazz music very much but this doesn’t mean he would like to spend other money on it, he can choose some free ways of enjoying jazz such as radio program.
In addition, the nationwide study as the author’s reference to support the expense is still irrational. There are a lot of choices for a typical jazz fan to spend money on jazz entertainment, like jazz tapes, jazz CDs, famous jazz musicians' concerts, jazz instruments, and jazz magazines and so on; thereby, even Monroe’s jazz fans spend certain amount according to the nationwide study indicated, it doesn’t mean a lot of high benefits of opening a jazz club.
To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lacks credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more information concerning the cost of opening a jazz club in Monroe and the approximate potential consumers to better evaluate the argument, we need more concrete evidence that people who live in Monroe is willing to spend money on jazz club, otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable. |
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