[经验思考] 再议Argument数据攻击 [复制链接]

lghscu
UID：2552043

超级会员

Rank: 7 Rank: 7 Rank: 7

声望: 401
寄托币: 5013
注册时间: 2008-9-29
精华: 3
帖子: 298

电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2009-9-14 11:45:56 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

By lghscu
Write a paragraph of argument attacking the following data:
“After growing by an annual average of over 10% over the past five years, China’s economy has suddenly cooled more quickly than expected. GDP growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter, from 11.9% in 2007.”

分析如下：
Conclusion:
China’s economy has suddenly cooled more quickly than expected.

Reason:
11.9%(2007)-->9%(2008)

以上分析是每个人都会做的，而且是公认到位的分析。根据分析请自写一攻击段落

攻击示例
Sample Attack:
The data presented by the author lends little credible support to the assertion that a decrease in China’s economy is coming earlier than expected. Data from two years is unable to represent the overall trend of the development of economy. It might be an unusual case, meanwhile, in the period of other years it has maintained an increase. Moreover, the relative drop of 11.9% to 9% might be insufficient to get the conclusion as well. What is the absolute decease of the economy is not mentioned. Perhaps, the total number is $100, then the drop $2, which is a normal phenomenon due to possible fluctuation in economy. Therefore, further information about situations in more years should be provided to make the argument more convincing and acceptable.

**Analysis of Sample Attack above**
TS:
The data presented by the author lends little credible support to the assertion that a decrease in China’s economy is coming earlier than expected.

Evidence1:
Data from two years is unable to represent the overall trend of the development of economy. It might be an unusual case, meanwhile, in the period of other years it has maintained an increase.

Evidence2:
Moreover, the relative drop of 11.9% to 9% might be insufficient to get the conclusion as well. What is the absolute decease of the economy is not mentioned. Perhaps, the total number is $100, then the drop $2, which is a normal phenomenon due to possible fluctuation in economy.

Summary:
Further information about situations in more years should be provided to make the argument more convincing and acceptable.

**experience**
在考场上对一个攻击点进行130-word的攻击，应该比较理想了。因为按照3个攻击点来说，3*130=390，再加开头结尾段120-word，一篇510-word已经比较满意了，心想5分应该到手了吧。

悲哀！！！
真悲哀！！！！
如果我是ETS rater的话，最多给你2分。因为上面被攻击段落来自Economist关于China economy的一篇文章。有多少可能性能让你这样攻击是需要我们再三考虑的。我这里不是说Economist的pundits有多NB，只是想说说不要盲目攻击数据 as New Oriental teaches us. 一见相对值，就要把绝对值请出来坐坐。请注意要攻击逻辑链。

最后再贴段中文
“2001年8月8日，“阳阳”在西北农林科技大学产下一对“龙凤胎”，表明第一代克隆羊有正常的繁育能力。据介绍，2003年2月26日，克隆羊“阳阳”的女儿“庆庆”产下千金“甜甜”，2004年2月6日“甜甜”顺利产下女儿“笑笑”。“阳阳”家族实现四代同堂。这不仅表明第一代克隆羊具有生育能力，其后代仍具有正常的生育能力。”
********
习惯性思维告诉我们：样本不是足够大，不能得出作者所述结论。
******
想想我们日常生活中是怎么用这些数据的吧。