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本帖最后由 cyct 于 2010-2-1 10:02 编辑
第一次写,强忍着憋出来的,所以模仿的痕迹有点重,以后慢慢整理改正,ARGU先发,ISSUE还在努力中。。。。
147 The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
The conclusion of this argument is that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support this claim, the arguer, basing on the survey, points out that it is the video games providing lifelike graphic which require the most up-to-date computers that are preferred by players. In addition, the arguer provides the evidence that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. However, several important concerns, which the arguer fails to address in this analysis, may seriously undermine the argument.
First of all, the arguer fails to take into account other factors that might influence the sales of Whirlwind video games. As we know, the sales of video games depend on several factors besides the video games itself and advertisement. For instance, some other companies might have already provided similar products, which would significantly affect the market of Whirlwind video games and so does its sales. Besides, the factors that whether the players own the most up-to-date computers or the management in the company are neglected by the arguer. Therefore, even if players preferred the Whirlwind video games and the extensive advertising campaign was extremely successful, there is no guarantee that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase in the next few months.
Another fallacy in this argument is that no evidence is provided to indicate that people at 10 to 25 years old will play above-mentioned video games. It is possible that people at 10 to 25 are more likely to play other games rather than that with lifelike graphics, which is dramatically different from that at other age. It is true that the survey shows that the video-game players prefer games containing lifelike graphics, but without providing the percentage of people at different age in the survey, the arguer could not simply assume that the people at 10 to 25 years old will also prefer these video games.
Before I come into my conclusion, it is necessary to point another fallacy in the argument. The question in the survey is unwarranted that does not lead to the conclusion. On the one hand, other features besides the most important one may also influence the overall quality of a game, which also should be mentioned in the survey. On the other hand, the factors rather than video games itself should also be considered in the survey, such as the customer's income, competitors and market potential, all of them will significantly influence the sales. Only if all factors were considered, the arguer can draw a reasonable conclusion.
In conclusion, the argument for video games based on feature preference survey could not lead to a conclusion that the sales of the Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To strengthen the argument, the arguer must take account of other factors that will also influence the sales. Moreover, we need more information about the preference of people at 10 to 25 years old in order to solidify the argument. |
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