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rikki_yao
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电梯直达

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发表于 2009-8-6 21:46:25 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
WORDS: 402       TIME: 00:28:00       DATE: 2009-8-4 20:14:08

In this memo,the manager of KNOW radio station recommends that they should shift its programming form rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format.In order to support his recommendation he cites that older people has increased and total listeners has declined.He also cites a weak sales of recorded music , continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been successful and a survey.However,careful examining of these facts lend little well-founded support to the recommendation.My contension with the author involved several aspects discussed below.

Firstly,the author makes an wrong assumption that the increase of older people lead to the deline of listeners. The increase of old population can only add to its listeners except the company lost more former listeners.Since the author fails to provide the information that there is a decrease number of people in this place,this assumption cannot be substantiated.

Secondly,the weak sales of recorded music does not necessarily indicate that that the company will lose its listeners.In fact,as the sales of albums decrease,the music fans will be more likely to listen to KNOW's music program.Moreover,the author fails to provide the kind of albums that sells badly.Perhaps the sales of rock and role is increased whereas other kinds of music such as classic decrease,so that the fact is unconving.

Thirdly,the author made a false analogy between KNOW and its neibouring counterparts.Perhas there are more people in the neiboring cities intersted in news,or perhaps those neibouring cities are political centers whereas the city KNOW locates is not.Without ruling out other possibilities the author cannot make a positive conclusion that continous news of KNOW will be successful too.

The last but not the least,the survey the author cites has little indication to his recommendation.For one thing,the survey was conducted before election.We know that the period of election is rather a special time,people are not interested in politics will be somewhat more caring about politics.There for the survey conducted  might not be effective.For another,the author give no information that survey is of statistic significance.

In short,the recommendation relies on certain unsubstantiated facts and assumption therefore render it unconvincing as it stands.To bolster the recommendation,the author should make more reliable assumptions bewteen the increase of old people and decrease of its listeners.And the author should also give more information about the kinds of music albums and more detailed information of neibouring cities.To better evaluate the recommendation I also want to know some  surveys conducted in ordinary days.