[a习作temp] 新人Argument154(Heating Oil)请大神批改 [复制链接]

charlieyes
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电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2013-8-4 15:52:39 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由 charlieyes 于 2013-8-4 15:59 编辑

自报家门：新人，8.31G，Argu准备四天，Issue今天开始。
上过XDF宁立波写作，参考过本论坛几篇精华。

本次写作是第一次，处于模板建立状态，耗时难免有些长，1h40min，506words。

请大神修改，同时我也会对此文章自己修改。
（版规已读，虽然经验不多，但是会偶尔修改近期已发表的习作的）

题目翻译：

"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
“在冬季非常寒冷的美国东北部的房屋，一直都使用传统的油料作为采暖的主要燃料。去年该地区经历了90 天低于往年平均气温的严寒，并且气象预测家们预测这种天气会持续未来数年。而且，去年由于人口增长，本地建造了很多的房屋。按此趋势，我们预测对于油料的需求将会增加，同时也建议对CI 公司投资，该公司的主要业务之一就是家用采暖油料的零售。”

主要思路：
1.传统oil可能并不是很有效、污染环境
2.天气预测无说服力
3.房屋增加并不能直接导致oil需求上升

The recommendation concludes that Consolidated Industries, which sales home heating oil in northeastern United States, requires financial support. In the argument, the author tries to demonstrate the relationship between investment to Consolidated Industries and home heating of northeastern United States to support the conclusion. Though some facts mentioned seems reasonable at first sight, the recommendation is still suffering from several unconvincing inferences.

According to the author, he or she implies that traditionally oil fuel for heating is the most considerable one. Though oil is their major fuel for heating, there are many possibilities to invalidate that implication. One conceivable thing is that using oil for heating is not the most effective method for northeastern American to warm their houses in winter. Perhaps some new energies, which can produce more heat at the same or less price, is more worth supporting to maximize the effectiveness of investment. And also maybe traditional oil heating is more harmful to the environment than some other energy sources. Then for making a balance between ecosystem and human being, Consolidated Industries is still not a good choice.

The author also reasons that according to local weather forecasters, days below average temperatures last year suggests there will be more cold years, which means whose weather pattern likes last year, in the future. That is not well reasoned. Because only one year’s information is not a long-period account, it is full of randomness. Perhaps for tens of years, weather in northeastern United States are continual years warmer than last year. During those years, current situation of home heating is enough for most people. Then it can easily predict that weather in next few years will be continue warming, except a special last year. To clarify this assumption, we must know the weather data of past long-period of years.

In addition, more new homes have been built in the region can’t directly lead to an increasing demand of heating oil. Maybe with the development of building materials and heating systems, more and more new-built houses, even old houses, are installed new-tech heating systems which can spend less energy to hold more heat. Then the demanding of heating oil will be equal to years before, or less than those years so that investing Consolidated Industries is a waste of money. Even though a rising number of buildings leads to the increasing demand of home heat, we still can’t arbitrarily support Consolidated Industries for the possibility that heating product system there is mature enough so that any investment would be futile to catch up with the demand. So we should know whether heating oil demanding there is actually rising, and the capacity of Consolidated Industries.

Considering for strengthen the stringency of recommendation, the author should provide more specific and convincing facts, for example, is there are any new effective or environmental friendly energies, the weather data of past long-period of years, whether heating oil demanding there is actually rising, and the capacity of Consolidated Industries. With evidences mentioned above, we could be more well-founded to consider about investing Consolidated Industries.

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charlieyes
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沙发

发表于 2013-8-4 17:31:29 |只看该作者

自改，只是修改了一些小错误

The recommendation concludes that Consolidated Industries, which sales home heating oil in northeastern United States, requires financial support. In the author’s recommending, he or she tries to demonstrate the build a relationship between investment to Consolidated Industries and home heating of northeastern United States to support the conclusion. Though some mentioned facts seems reasonable at first sight, the argument is still suffering from several unconvincing inferences.

According to the author, he or she implies that traditionally oil fuel for heating is the most considerable one. Although oil is their major fuel for heating, there are many possibilities to invalidate that implication. One conceivable thing is that using oil for heating is not the most effective method for northeastern American to warm their houses in winter. Perhaps some new energies, which can produce more heat at the same or less price than common fuels, is more worthy of supporting to maximize the effectiveness of investment. And also maybe traditional oil heating is more harmful to the environment than some other considerable energy sources. Then for making a balance between ecosystem and human being, Consolidated Industries is still not a good choice.

The author also reasons that according to local weather forecasters, days below average temperatures last year predicts there will be more cold years, which means whose weather pattern likes last year, in the future. However, that prediction is not well-reasoned. Because only one year’s information is not a long-period account, it is probably something of randomness. Perhaps for tens of years, weather in northeastern United States are continual years warmer than last year. During those years, current situation of home heating is enough for most people. Then we could better predict that weather in next few years will be continue warming, except a special last year. To clarify this assumption, we must know the weather data of past long-period of years.

In addition, more new homes have been built in the region can’t directly lead to an increasing demand of heating oil. Maybe with the development of building materials and heating systems, more and more new-built houses, even old houses, are installed with new heating systems which can spend less energy and hold more heat. Then the demanding of heating oil will be equal to years before, or less than those years so that investing Consolidated Industries is a waste of money. Even though a rising number of buildings leads to the increasing demand of home heat, we still can’t arbitrarily support Consolidated Industries for the possibility that heating product system there is mature enough so that any investment would be futile to catch up with the demand. So we should know whether heating oil demanding there is actually rising, and the heating capacity of Consolidated Industries.

Considering to strengthen the stringency of recommendation, the author should provide more specific and convincing facts, for example, whether there are any new effective or environmental friendly energies, the weather data of past long-period of years, whether heating oil demanding there is actually rising, and the heating capacity of Consolidated Industries. With evidences mentioned above, we could be more well-founded to consider about investing Consolidated Industries.

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