[a习作temp] argument47 G89, 11日 [复制链接]

liulin12369
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电梯直达

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发表于 2005-8-11 17:23:53 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

47.Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

The speaker concludes that the cause of the earth's suddenly and significantly cooler weather in mid-sixth century rooted in the volcanic eruption. To sustain it, the speaker points out few records survive from that time and deduce from them. Careful scrutiny of the argument exposes several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing.

First of all, the accounts found both in Asia and Europe are not reliable to support the global temperature decline. If the records describe that the dimming of the sun and the cool weather happened in different times, the effect may be caused by other factors. Perhaps, the Asian and the European record are not at the same time, for example, the Asian saw the phenomena twenty years before Europeans, the effect may be partial rather than global. If so, the facts would undermine the records' relevance.

Secondly, even if the phenomena indeed exist, the assurance that no meteorite colliding with earth on the basis of conviction of none records contained such a collision flash. Perhaps, the records contained such a phenomena has been destroyed or has not been discovered. Even if the record is reliable, other alternatives should take into consideration. For instance, the flash happened in a remote place and the light disappeared without trace. Even if the people discover the light, maybe those people cannot take record because they grasped no words. Any of these scenarios, if true, would weaken the claim that there was no meteorite collision rather than support it.

Thirdly, another unfair assumption is that it is a volcanic eruption caused the global cold because of a loud boom recorded by the Asian. For one thing, whether the boom stemmed from the volcanic eruption is doubtable. If there was an earthquake or the collapse a huge building, the record may note such a sound. For the other thing, even if the eruption taken place indeed, still we may find it unconvincing that the eruption caused the cooler phenomena. Perhaps, the eruption happened after the temperature incline. If so, then the argument might amount to poor assurance.

Finally, even if we suppose all the consumptions are correct and we still cannot rule out some alternatives to cause the weather change. Such alternatives may be earth move away from the sun. Perhaps, a large planet sheltered the sunlight for years. If so we cannot safely assume that the volcanic eruption render this cool weather.

In sum, the speaker cannot convince me that the cool weather pattern in the six-mid century derived from the volcanic eruption. To bolster it, the speaker should show more detailed evidence and cogent deduction.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-12 at 02:53 ]

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keeyang
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沙发

发表于 2005-8-11 17:51:20 |只看该作者

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keeyang
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板凳

发表于 2005-8-11 18:13:12 |只看该作者

47.Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

The speaker concludes that the cause of the earth's suddenly and significantly cooler weather in mid-sixth century rooted in the avolcanic eruption. To sustain 你是不是想写 substantiate it, the speaker points out few records survive from that time and deduce from them. 这句话要么不写，写就把意思表达清楚 Careful scrutiny of the argument exposes several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing.

First of all, the accounts found both in Asia and Europe are not reliable to support the global temperature decline. If the records describe that the dimming of the sun and the cool weather happened in different times, the effect may be caused by other factors. Perhaps, the Asian and the European record are not at the same time, for example, the Asian saw the phenomena twenty years before Europeans, the effect may be partial rather than global. If so, the facts would undermine the records' relevance.

这一点我不能同意你的看法。我的理解是全球气候变冷是文章给出的一个前提条件或背景知识，不是本题的逻辑错误所在。

Secondly, even if the phenomena indeed exist, the assurance that no meteorite colliding with earth on the basis of conviction of none records contained such a collision flash. 语法问题 Perhaps, the records contained such a phenomena has been destroyed or has not been discovered. Even if the record is reliable, other alternatives should take into consideration. For instance, the flash happened in a remote place and the light disappeared without trace. Even if the people discover the light, maybe those people cannot take record because they grasped no words. 不理解 Any of these scenarios, if true, would weaken the claim that there was no meteorite collision rather than support it.

Thirdly, another unfair assumption is that it is a volcanic eruption caused the global cold because of a loud boom recorded by the Asian. For one thing, whether the boom stemmed from the volcanic eruption is doubtable. If there was an earthquake or the collapse a huge building, the record may note such a sound. For the other thing, even if the eruption taken place indeed, still we may find it unconvincing that the eruption caused the cooler phenomena. Perhaps, the eruption happened after the temperature incline. If so, then the argument might amount to poor assurance.

Finally, even if we suppose all the consumptions are correct and we still cannot rule out some alternatives to cause the weather change. 你既然承认B3的假设，那还有什么其他原因了Such alternatives may be earth move away from the sun.语法问题 Perhaps, a large planet sheltered the sunlight for years. 没有说服力，因为太阳就有九个（不，十个了）行星。If so we cannot safely assume that the volcanic eruption render this cool weather.

我觉得把这个错误放在第一个批比较好

In sum, the speaker cannot convince me that the cool weather pattern in the six-mid century derived from the volcanic eruption. To bolster it, the speaker should show more detailed evidence and cogent deduction.

总体不错。就是b1有待斟酌。

向着胜利冲刺吧！没问题的！

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