- 最后登录
- 2010-10-2
- 在线时间
- 122 小时
- 寄托币
- 759
- 声望
- 0
- 注册时间
- 2005-6-24
- 阅读权限
- 25
- 帖子
- 1
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 579
- UID
- 2111079
![Rank: 4](template/archy_plt8/image/star_level3.gif)
- 声望
- 0
- 寄托币
- 759
- 注册时间
- 2005-6-24
- 精华
- 0
- 帖子
- 1
|
Argument147
------题目------
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
'Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.'
-----提纲-------
1.调查是否合理,调查的对象是否是W公司新游戏的目标人群。
2.即时调查代表目标人群的意见,但10-25岁的玩家是否会买W公司出产的新游戏
3.就算以上假设均成立,W公司的游戏销量会在几个月内有显著上升。
------正文------
In this argument, the arguer claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer points out evidence based on a recent survey that video-game players prefer the games with lifelike graphics which Whirlwind has just introduced. At first glance, the argument seems logical. However, it suffers from several flaws.
The first problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. The arguer provides no evidence that the number of the respondents is statistically significant. Perhaps people aged 10 to 25 whom the extensive advertising campaign directed at are not a significant percentage of the survey respondents. Thus it is problematic to think that these 10 to 25 years old young people will also like the games with lifelike graphics. Furthermore, even if the survey was reliable, it is unreasonable to conclude that if these young game players like the kind of games which can provide lifelike graphics, they will definitely buy them. Since these games need the most up-to-date computers, most young people could not possibly afford them. Therefore, without ruling out these possible scenarios, the arguer cannot rely on this survey to support the claim that people will eagerly buy these games.
In addition, the author's conclusions depend on the assumption that if video-game players care about the lifelike graphics, they will buy the games produced by Whirlwind. Yet the arguer offers no evidence to substantiate this assumption. People may consider many aspects of a game such as storyline, character design, music and sound effect before deciding to buy it. It is entirely possible that the games introduced by Whirlwind are not good at these facets. Furthermore, the author doesn't provide us the reason why the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years. Perhaps the qualities of Whirlwind games are poor and have a bad reputation which is easy to lose but hard to regain. Therefore video-game players may prefer the games produced by other companies to the Whirlwind games.
Finally, even if many young video-game enthusiasts will be attracted to buy these new games produced by Whirlwind, it is still unfair to conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games are going to increase dramatically in the next few months. Perhaps the sales of traditional video-games which weigh more in Whirlwind decline dramatically. This trend strongly affecting the overall game sales cannot be changed by some new games in a few months. Or perhaps the economic condition of the whole country is not good recently, thus most parents cannot buy these expensive new products for their children who are the main customers of Whirlwind. Without considering these possibilities, the author’s conclusion is still unwarranted.
To sum up, the argument is neither well reasoned nor persuasive. To make the argument more forceful, the arguer must provide more convincing information about the economic condition, strong competitors and whether young people aged 10 to 25 want to buy the Whirlwind games largely. |
|