[a习作temp] argument25 风之声 第四次作业 [复制链接]

25The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell. "Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

In this argument, the author concludes that the best way to improve Hopewell's economy and generate additional tax revenues is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View. To support his conclusion, the authors cites that tourism in Ocean View has increased and new business have opened there after built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel, and the revenues have risen by 30 percent. Close scrutiny of the facts, however, reveals that none of them lend incredible support to the author's conclusion.

The threshold problem with this argument is that the author's claim is based on the assumption that Hopewell is analogous to Ocean View. However, there is no evidence to substantiate that it is the case. How about the environment condition in these two cities? What about their tourism resources differences? Whether the living cost in Ocean View is much lower than Hopewell? Or even the security condition in these two cites need to consider carefully. Without these comparisons, we could hardly say that the Hopewell would get the same result as Ocean View.

Even assuming that these two cities is similar in many aspects, the author's another assumption that tourism in Ocean View increasing is the result of  building a new municipal golf course and resort hotel is still groundless. As we known, many factors could attract tourists, such as the costs, the weather, or the special tourism resources. For example, if the climate is the real reasons that appeal allure these tourism, but Hopewell does not own, then even Hopewell build a better golf course and resort hotel could not attract the tourisms. Without carefully investigation, we could not simple attribute the results to the new municipal golf course and resort hotel.

Finally, another flaw must be pointed out before I come to my conclusion is that the author falsely assume that the tourism have increased in Ocean View is increasing better than the others years. There is no evidence about how many tourists increased. It is possible whole countries tourism environment is very bad, few tourists would in the market. If we follow Ocean View, what is our core competitive advantage compared with Ocean View to make us win, or how can we make sure that we also have an increasing tourism after we build the golf course and resort hotel?

In conclusion, this argument is logically flawed and unpersuasive. To make it acceptable, the author must provide adequate evidence that the building of the golf course and resort hotel has cause-relationship with the increasing of tourism. In addition, I need more information concerning the tourism condition in Hopewell to better evaluate the author’s recommendation.