[a习作temp] argument40 [复制链接]

Francis07
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发表于 2007-8-6 18:47:42 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

argument40
The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.
"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."

In this argument, the president is considering to stock a full line of organic fruit in order not to lose his customers and to increase the profits.  While the suggestion is worth considering, however, the president failed to make it cogent enough because of the following fallacies.

First of all, the president's fear of losing customers is groundless.  Although a survey was conducted in order to convince us that our customers are having a growing concern about the foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals, this does not mean that they will not buy our products thereafter.  Firstly, the memo did not mention that products in our market was clean and without any presevatives and pesticides at the past.  We could take it as a possibility that the foods in our markets are already satisfactory in the past.  And the fame of our mardet could certainly keep the amount of our customers from decreasing.  Secondly, the survey itself has some questions, because it is only dedicated to our own customers.  Maybe other customers who do not think organic foods is good for their health and are more willing to buy those non-organic foods.  Who can tell in advance that these customers will not come to our market and buy products instead of natural-food stores.  Therefore, to make the fearness of the president calls for more evidence to support it.

Moreover, the phenomenon in Sun City that caused the fearness of losing customers of the president is also unconvincing.  We can not easily conclude that the 75 percent of the people who asked for a taste of organic fruit will buy organic food in the future.  Maybe they are only curious about this new kind of food and they are tasting these foods only because they are free.  Furthermore, the memo did not mention the number of other requests for other kind of food.  Maybe the request for non-organic food was even larger than organic food.  Therefore, the number is not representitive enough to show that more people are having a growing concern for organic food.  Also, the survey was done in only one city, even when it is true that all customers in Sun City are having a growing concern of the organic food, it does not indicate that customers in other areas are having a growing concern.  The survey is not representitive.

Even if the growing concern of the customer for organic food is the truth, it is still too soon to say that Excello will lose customers.  Although natural-food stores specializing in organic food products have opened nearby Excello in 90 towns as competitors, it does not mean that customers will have to buy their products instead of ours.  The memo did not mention whether the prices of foods in these food markets are the same as or even lower than those in Excello.  Maybe foods in those markets are of a much higher than in Excello.  Then who would like to buy expensive foods with the same quality?

Anyway, preparing in advance is a good idea, however, stocking a full line of organic food will somewhat an extreme.  Maybe customers are afraid of trying this new kind of product in fear of some side effects.  In this case, too much organic food will be a burden fo the company.  And there will be a big lose if the comsuption could not meet the cost.

To sum up, the consideration of preparing in advance will be benefit for the market after more supporting evidence is given to make the suggestion cogent.